Introduction by Heather Moran:

Heather Moran, the CEO of Sixth & I, introduces Bill Gates as a guest on their virtual stage. She outlines Gates’ background as co-founder of Microsoft and philanthropist. Moran emphasizes the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation’s focus on improving global quality of life and Gates’ approach to solving complex problems, like climate change, through multi-sectoral coordination. She also mentions Gates’ book, “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster,” which proposes a practical plan to achieve zero greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate Crisis Overview:

Bill Gates discusses the critical situation of global climate change. He notes that the world emits over 51 billion tons of greenhouse gases annually and highlights the catastrophic consequences for human life if this continues.

Role of Technology:

Gates recalls his early days when the idea of a personal computer was a ‘wild idea.’ He draws an analogy between this and the ‘wild idea’ of tackling climate change. He states that just as the computer revolution transformed society, similar breakthroughs are required to address the climate crisis.

Multi-Faceted Approach:

Gates advocates for multiple breakthroughs in different sectors. He believes that the way we do almost everything must be transformed. This includes the need for entrepreneurs to innovate, for governments to enact policies that favor clean energy, and for advocates to hold all parties accountable.

Optimism Through Innovation:

Despite the massive challenge that climate change presents, Gates remains an optimist. His optimism is rooted in the power of innovation, believing that the human capability to invent can provide the solutions needed to avoid a climate disaster.

Guest Conversation:

Lastly, Heather Moran announces that Gates will be in conversation with Rashida Jones, an actor, writer, producer, and director. They co-host a podcast together, and the program will later open for audience questions.

Introduction and Rationale:

The conversation centers around Bill Gates’ new book, “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster”. Host Rashida Jones kicks off by questioning Gates about his motivation to write the book, despite his own large carbon footprint and the critiques that might arise from it.

Climate Change Urgency:

Bill Gates acknowledges the rising interest in solving climate change, particularly among younger generations. He notes the severe negative impacts of climate change that he has witnessed, especially in Africa, where the majority of the poor are farmers facing worsening weather and crop failures.

Timeline and Learning:

Gates traces his journey of learning about climate change back to 2005. Initially uninformed, he sought the expertise of professors and other experts to educate himself. He gave his first major public talk on climate change at a TED event in 2010, followed by more public engagements and funding initiatives for clean energy technologies.

Innovation and Investments:

Gates emphasizes the role of innovation and technological advancements in combating climate change. He mentions his involvement in creating Breakthrough Energy Ventures, a venture capital fund aimed at financing companies that offer innovative climate solutions. He admits that while some ventures have failed, the overall push for technological solutions is crucial.

The Importance of a Plan:

Gates underscores the need for a concrete plan and correct metrics to gauge progress. He warns that lack of progress could lead to cynicism, undermining collective faith in humanity’s capability to tackle significant challenges.

Final Thoughts:

Gates reiterates the gravity of climate change as one of the most formidable challenges humanity has ever faced. He remains optimistic, however, attributing his hope to the power of innovation and the growing collective will to take action.

Emission Framework:

Bill Gates outlines that humanity needs to reduce 51 billion tons of emissions to zero. He introduces the concept of a “green premium,” which refers to the additional cost incurred for opting for greener solutions over traditional methods.

Known Emission Sources:

Gates identifies broadly acknowledged emission sources, stating that electricity production from coal and natural gas accounts for 27% of total emissions. Transportation contributes another 16%, of which passenger cars make up 7%. He mentions the potential for electric cars to become as economically attractive as gasoline cars in the next 10-15 years.

Lesser-Known Emission Sources:

He discusses three lesser-known but significant sources of emissions. Agriculture contributes through livestock and fertilizers, while heating and cooling predominantly use natural gas. Manufacturing activities, particularly cement and steel production, are highly carbon-intensive. For every ton of cement made, an equal amount of carbon is emitted.

Complexity of the Issue:

Gates stresses that if the target were to reduce emissions by only 30-40%, focusing on cars and renewable energy might suffice. However, CO2 remains in the atmosphere for thousands of years, causing long-term damage. Thus, achieving zero emissions is imperative for ecosystem stability and human survival, especially for those near the equator who are most vulnerable to climate change.

Ambitious Goal:

His ambitious aim is to reduce the 51 billion tons of emissions to zero by the year 2050. He remarks that despite economic downturns or reductions in leisure travel, historical data show emissions continue to rise, highlighting the challenge.

Optimism Through Innovation:

Gates concludes with an optimistic note, stating that the goal is attainable through concentrated efforts from smart people and various companies focusing on reducing emissions in each of the problematic sectors.

Emission Sources:

Bill Gates discusses the importance of understanding the sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Electricity generation and transportation account for 27% and 16% of emissions, respectively. However, he also emphasizes that sectors like agriculture, heating and cooling, and manufacturing (especially cement and steel) are significant but less recognized sources of emissions.

Green Premium:

Gates introduces the term “green premium,” which refers to the additional cost of choosing a greener alternative over a traditional one. He suggests that while electric cars are becoming more affordable, the premium for other sectors remains high.

Case of Electric Cars:

He cites the example of electric cars to demonstrate a successful strategy for reducing emissions. Government policies, research and development (R&D), and high-risk capital have collectively contributed to lowering the cost of electric vehicles and driving consumer demand.

Scaling Solutions:

Gates advocates for the use of a similar multifaceted approach in other sectors, from those that are already making progress like wind and solar power, to more challenging sectors like cement, steel, and aviation fuel. He mentions his organization, Breakthrough Energy, which focuses on funding R&D in these areas.

Carbon Capture:

Gates addresses the topic of carbon capture, both at power plants and directly from the air. Although it’s a promising area, he cautions that the current cost is prohibitively high, at over $600 per ton of captured carbon.

Financial Feasibility:

Gates highlights the financial constraints of adopting only expensive solutions. With 51 billion tons of emissions, even at $100 per ton for carbon capture, the cost would be $5 trillion per year, underscoring the need to reduce the green premiums across various sectors.

Systemic Change and Public Opinion:

The discussion concludes with the acknowledgement that achieving the goal of zero emissions by 2050 will require widespread systemic changes. There is also mention of public reaction to Gates’ book and methods, indicating varied opinions on his approach.

Role of Advocacy and Innovation:

Bill Gates emphasizes that while advocacy is crucial, he sees himself as contributing to the field of climate change through innovation. He notes that he has experience in innovation, from software to vaccine development at the Gates Foundation. His goal is to educate people on the complexity of the climate crisis and motivate both belief in and action towards solutions.

Comprehensive Solutions:

Gates argues that tackling climate change requires a comprehensive approach. While many books and discussions focus on a single aspect of the problem, Gates aims to offer an overview that encompasses various facets. He acknowledges that achieving the set climate goals will be neither easy nor simple and will require addressing different areas of concern.

Political Certainty and Capital Investment:

Gates discusses the difficulties of large-scale investments in technologies like new steel plants. The lack of political stability and commitment to green goals can make investors hesitant, thereby slowing progress.

Turning Public Interest into Solution-Oriented Advocacy:

Gates suggests that public education needs to be broadened, starting from high school, to help people understand the science of climate change and the challenges of solutions like renewable energy. He mentions the reliability problem with weather-dependent renewables and advocates for either energy storage solutions or more constant energy sources.

Weather-Dependent Renewables and Reliability:

The discussion points out the issues with relying solely on weather-dependent renewables like wind and solar. Gates brings up the example of Texas, where the energy issue was not due to wind turbines but natural gas plants failing to function in low temperatures.

Nuclear Energy as a Contingency:

Gates raises the possibility of nuclear energy as a more constant, yet still green, energy source. He acknowledges the controversy surrounding nuclear energy but argues for its necessity in the energy mix. Research and development in this area would focus on making nuclear energy as safe as possible.

Nuclear Energy Challenges:

Bill Gates discusses two primary obstacles in utilizing nuclear energy: cost and safety. Current third-generation nuclear plants are too expensive and have safety systems that are mere patches. Gates argues for a ‘fourth-generation’ approach that uses a blank sheet of paper to redesign safety systems. This involves digitally modeling extreme scenarios like earthquakes and airplane crashes to ensure no operator intervention is needed to maintain safety.

Fourth-Generation Nuclear Development:

Gates mentions his involvement in TerraPower, a company that has received government funding to develop a fourth-generation nuclear reactor. Over the next five years, the aim is to build a demo reactor to demonstrate both the economics and safety of this new technology. If successful, Gates hopes that it would make people more open-minded about incorporating nuclear energy into a green, reliable electricity network.

Importance of Transmission Lines:

To have an effective electricity network, new transmission lines are also essential. Gates mentions that open-source software is available for people to model out the transmission network. He cites the example of Texas, suggesting that if it were better connected to the rest of the country’s grid, the state would have been better off during its energy crisis.

Weather-Related Crises:

Addressing the issue of Texas, Gates states that extreme weather events, paradoxically, will become more frequent as the Earth warms. He explains that warming impacts the Gulf Stream, disrupting its ability to keep cold air localized to Canada. This leads to extreme weather phenomena including drought, flooding, and temperature fluctuations. Gates suggests that this is a component of the larger climate problem and requires planning and mitigation.

Impact of Extreme Weather:

Bill Gates explains that as the Earth warms, the United States will experience more frequent cold fronts, resulting in increased climate variance. He notes that as households and cars switch to electric power to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the electric grid will face more pressure to be robust and reliable.

Reliance on Electric Systems:

Gates elaborates on the increasing dependence on electricity for heating homes and powering cars. As natural gas and gasoline are phased out, the electric grid needs to be incredibly reliable. Simulating the toughest conditions and preparing for them is vital, especially as electricity becomes the only choice for heating and transportation.

Biden’s Carbon-Free Grid by 2035:

Gates appreciates the Biden administration’s ambitious goal for a carbon-free electricity grid by 2035 but notes it is not enough. Tougher challenges like replacing steel factories can’t be delayed. He supports the administration’s modeling efforts, stating that more transmission lines and capacity are needed, and this will create jobs.

Offshore Wind and Infrastructure:

He suggests that offshore wind could be particularly beneficial, especially for power needs on the East Coast, offering a diversity of sources and reducing the burden on the Midwest. Gates emphasizes that planning for this must start immediately, especially in building the necessary transmission lines within the next five years.

Biden Administration’s Focus:

Gates is optimistic about the Biden administration’s focus on climate change and their chosen team for tackling the issue. He notes that the upcoming year will be significant with the availability of “Build Back Better” funds and key climate meetings, underlining the need for immediate action.

Timing of Climate Focus:

Bill Gates explains that the timing for his book on climate change is apt due to heightened public interest. He suggests that current job-creating infrastructure funds are focused on climate-related projects, such as green hydrogen and more transmission facilities.

Pandemic & Climate Change:

Gates acknowledges that although it seems strange to discuss both the pandemic and climate change simultaneously, the two are interconnected. Global vaccination efforts are needed to prevent new virus variants, while tackling climate change is essential to prevent future crises.

Hope Amid Crisis:

Gates expresses a message of hope, particularly for young people concerned about climate change. He mentions the need for government foresight and long-term investment in solutions, similar to preparations for earthquakes and wars.

Individual Action:

According to Gates, individuals can pressure governments, buy green products, and encourage their employers to invest in sustainable technologies. These actions contribute to a collective lowering of the “green premium” and expedite the transition to a sustainable future.

Role of Oil Companies:

Gates discusses the potential for traditional oil and gas companies to pivot towards sustainability by utilizing their engineering skills. He mentions that some European companies have already diversified their portfolios to include green technologies.

Nexus of Security Concerns:

Gates speaks to the intersection of energy, water, and food security, asserting that they are intricately linked with climate change. For example, water-intensive agriculture faces threats from global warming. Innovation in cheap, clean energy and drought-resistant crops can alleviate these issues and contribute to global stability.

In essence, Gates emphasizes the need for multi-faceted, long-term strategies and collective efforts to address the complex challenges of pandemics and climate change.

Innovation as a Path to Emission Reduction:

Bill Gates is optimistic about the role of Research & Development (R&D) in mitigating climate change. He emphasizes the need for multiple approaches to innovation, especially in areas like energy storage, where there are different methods such as heat storage, cheap batteries, and pressurized water. Gates argues that having “multiple roads to success” increases the chances of meeting climate goals within the next 30 years.

Importance of Timely Inventions:

Gates mentions the urgency of making breakthroughs in the next decade to allow for scaling up solutions. He believes that investing in smart people and supporting them financially can yield better-than-expected results based on his experience in software and vaccines.

Existing Tech Vs. New Innovations:

On the question of balancing current technologies with new innovations, Gates discusses how certain solutions like natural gas or hybrid cars may no longer be sufficient. The financial models for these technologies often assume more than 30 years of operation, which clashes with the need for zero-emission solutions in the near future.

Global Responsibility and Leadership:

Regarding international cooperation, Gates states that it’s imperative for the U.S. to take the lead because of its historical contributions to emissions and its ability to innovate. This leadership could then encourage other countries like China and India to follow suit.

The Concept of Green Premium:

Gates introduces the idea of a “green premium,” the extra cost associated with eco-friendly choices. For instance, electric cars might be costlier upfront but save on gasoline and maintenance in the long run. In contrast, green cement is currently nearly double the cost of traditional cement, highlighting areas that need urgent innovation.

Individual Participation:

Finally, Gates advocates for “catalytic buying,” where consumers who can afford to do so opt for green products, even if they are more expensive. This not only helps the consumer feel good about their choices but also drives the market towards lowering the green premium.

Encouraging Adoption Through Taste and Cost:

Gates uses the example of meat alternatives like Impossible and Beyond to show that consumer preferences can drive innovation and bring costs down. He notes that as these products improve in taste and affordability, they will become indistinguishable from traditional options, thus fostering wider adoption.

Impact on Smallholder Farmers:

Bill Gates emphasized the importance of improving smallholder farmers’ livelihoods as a means to combat climate change. He mentioned that interventions could take multiple forms, such as providing better seeds and improving farming advice. Gates noted that small improvements can significantly impact these farmers, increasing output by over 50%, which can be a safety net during challenging years.

The Role of Agricultural Research:

Gates discussed the “unfunded” area of seed research as holding immense potential. He alluded to the Green Revolution of the 1970s, stating that the innovations possible today could exceed those achievements. He indicated that the research could help in disease resistance, which is crucial for crop yield and subsequently for preventing malnutrition.

Technological Advancements for Farmers:

Gates stated that leveraging technology, like mobile phones, could help farmers make better decisions regarding when to plant and how to save for future seasons. He highlighted that such information could enhance their resilience, allowing them to either accumulate buffer stock or savings to get through lean years without abandoning their farms.

Exciting Companies in Sustainability:

Asked about companies or innovations that excite him, Gates listed several, including a company focused on heat storage called Malta and Nature’s Fine, a food company. He also gave credit to Tesla for their work in electric cars and mentioned electric heat pumps as a compelling economic choice for new builds or retrofits.

Breakthrough Energy Ventures:

Gates was optimistic about the role of Breakthrough Energy Ventures in fostering a new wave of green investing. He mentioned that the venture’s scientific depth gives confidence to other investors, countering the skepticism that had plagued green investing several years ago. He hinted at the second funding round, stating that the quality of new investments looks promising.

The segment encapsulated Bill Gates’ enthusiasm for leveraging agricultural research and technology to make significant strides in both sustainability and quality of life for smallholder farmers. It also highlighted his optimistic outlook on the potential of green companies and technologies to mitigate climate change.