Introduction and Acknowledgment:

Ken Quartz, the Interim Dean of the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto, opens the virtual event co-hosted with Indigo Books. He acknowledges the traditional land of the Huron-Wendat, the Seneca, and the Mississaugas of the Credit River on which the University operates.

Speaker Profiles:

Ken introduces the speakers for the night, Bill Gates and Arielle Bessette. Arielle is described as a Canadian writer, filmmaker, and content creator with a quarter-million subscribers on her YouTube channel. Bill Gates is introduced as the co-chair of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and founder of Breakthrough Energy, actively working to address climate change. Bill is also the author of the book “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster.”

Event Format:

Arielle will be interviewing Bill and will also be taking live audience questions submitted through Slido.com. This event marks the Canadian launch of Bill Gates’ new book.

Bill Gates on Climate Change

The Climate Crisis:

Bill Gates presents the alarming statistic that the world emits over 51 billion tons of greenhouse gases each year, indicating that continuous emission at this rate would have catastrophic consequences for human life.

Transformation and Innovation:

Gates calls for significant breakthroughs in almost every aspect of human life to reduce these emissions to zero. He compares the need for such breakthroughs to historical feats like landing on the moon, eradicating smallpox, and the proliferation of computers.

Roles and Responsibilities:

Gates highlights the importance of various societal stakeholders in tackling the climate crisis. Entrepreneurs and investors need to build and transform businesses to deploy climate solutions, governments must enact policies that drive clean energy markets, and advocates should hold everyone accountable for making rapid progress.

Optimism through Innovation:

Despite the enormity of the challenge, Gates expresses optimism that human ingenuity and innovation will prevail in solving the climate crisis.

Introduction and Context:

The event, hosted by the Rotman School of Management and Indigo Books, features a discussion between Bill Gates and Arielle Bessette. They focus on Bill Gates’s new book, “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster,” as well as his path to becoming an advocate for climate change solutions.

Bill Gates’s Entry into Climate Work:

Gates traces his focus on climate change to his extensive work in Africa through the Gates Foundation. He observed a dire lack of electricity and the adverse impacts of climate change on local farming. His curiosity led him to consult experts to understand the intricacies of climate models, emissions, and potential solutions.

Public Advocacy and Innovation:

Bill Gates became publicly involved in climate discussions as early as 2010 when he gave a TED talk on the topic. However, he notes that the talk didn’t gain as much attention as his later talk on pandemics. In 2015, he participated in the Paris Climate Talks to promote innovation as part of the agenda.

Breakthrough Energy and Book Timing:

Gates funds a group called Breakthrough Energy to encourage new ideas in the climate sector. He decided to write his book to consolidate his learnings and make them accessible to the public. The book aims to educate people about the urgent yet achievable goal of reaching zero emissions by 2050.

Audience Reception:

The conversation touches on the reception of the book. Arielle Bessette mentions she enjoyed reading it, even preferring to read the e-book version before a physical copy arrived. Gates mentions that the book has been generally well-received, especially at a time when governments are focusing on climate goals post-pandemic.

Climate Vs. Pandemic Talks:

Gates reflects on the difference in public attention between his climate change and pandemic talks. He hopes that the urgency of the climate crisis will resonate with the public before it’s too late, similar to how his pandemic talk gained attention only after the outbreak.

Complexity of Energy Crisis:

The discussion starts with a focus on the complexity of the energy crisis, particularly as it pertains to electricity. One startling point made is that the world will need to double or triple its electricity supply by 2050 to accommodate both a greener future and rising global consumption.

Tripling Electricity Demand:

Bill Gates notes that the challenge isn’t just to green the electricity we currently use, but to generate even more while keeping it green. Gates explains that this is a significant opportunity for utilities and power generation companies. As we shift from fossil fuels to electricity for various processes (like cars and home heating), we will rely even more on electric power. In North America alone, the demand for electricity has been flat for decades, and the move to green energy will require a complete revamp.

Transmission and Infrastructure:

Gates emphasizes that while North America has abundant solar and wind resources, the lack of transmission infrastructure is a critical bottleneck. New transmission lines are needed to handle the new, larger grid, and some existing proposals (like a line from Canada to New England) face opposition for what Gates sees as incorrect reasons.

Energy Sources:

Hydropower will not significantly increase its percentage of the total energy supply, Gates notes. As for nuclear energy, its future role in power generation remains a subject of debate. Electricity is highlighted as the primary form of clean energy that can be moved around efficiently, although the potential for clean hydrogen exists but is yet unclear.

Surprise Element: Cement:

A significant takeaway from the book, and one that surprises both the interviewer and readers, is the question of cement. It’s implied that cement production presents its own set of unique challenges in the context of reducing carbon emissions, although the details are not elaborated upon in the transcript.

Why Optimistic?:

The discussion also broaches the topic of optimism. Despite the seemingly insurmountable challenges, Gates’ underlying message is one of opportunity, especially for those in power generation and transmission sectors. The need for more electricity means there will be a demand for innovation and investment in these areas.

Overview of Emissions Sources:

The discussion delves into the problem of emissions from different sectors. While people commonly associate emissions with electricity and cars, these only account for about a third of the total emissions. Bill Gates highlights that manufacturing actually makes up the largest chunk at 31%, which includes the production of cement, steel, and fertilizer.

The Role of the Young Generation:

Gates believes that solving the emissions problem is heavily reliant on the younger generation in wealthy countries making it a priority. They will drive the needed innovation because the task at hand involves changing a significant portion of the physical economy.

Manufacturing’s Hidden Complexity:

The manufacturing sector, which is well-developed and cheap, is often taken for granted. People don’t realize the sheer volume of emissions that come from producing goods like steel, cement, and even paper and plastic. Gates finds it surprising that this sector is so large and yet so underestimated in public consciousness.

Impact on Daily Goods:

The discussion calls attention to the ubiquity of manufactured goods in daily life, from buildings and roads requiring cement and steel to cars and even paper and plastic products. Almost every physical good involves a manufacturing process that contributes to emissions, adding complexity to the issue.

Innovation as the Key:

The ultimate solution, according to Gates, lies in innovation. Because consumers are not willing to pay much more than they currently do for goods, innovation becomes the crucial factor in transforming manufacturing processes to be greener. Gates admits that predicting the pace of this innovation is challenging.

Public Awareness:

The importance of public awareness and a generational shift in priorities is underlined. Without a focus on the real sources of emissions and a dedication to solving them, progress will be difficult. Gates emphasizes the need for the young generation to advocate for change and innovation in order to tackle these complex challenges.

Importance of Broad Knowledge:

Bill Gates emphasizes that the first step towards affecting change is having a broad understanding of the emissions issue and sharing that with others, regardless of their political beliefs. Consensus on the goal is vital for coordinated action.

Consumer Choices and Corporate Responsibility:

Gates suggests that consumers have power in influencing companies to reduce their emissions. Companies will be reporting their emissions, and consumers can opt for products that are made sustainably, thereby increasing demand for green steel, cement, etc. Voting with dollars can significantly impact the manufacturing sector.

The Role of Subsidies and Early Adopters:

Drawing a parallel with solar panels, Gates points out that initially, subsidies by certain countries helped make solar energy affordable. Similarly, initial adopters of green manufacturing technologies can pave the way for broader, cost-effective adoption in the future.

Political Voice and Workplace Activism:

Gates identifies three critical ways for individuals to contribute: using their political voice to foster bipartisan commitment to sustainability, making conscious consumer choices, and ensuring their workplaces are responsible citizens in terms of emissions. Political stability in environmental policies is necessary to encourage companies to make long-term investments in sustainability.

Granular Changes Across Industries:

Gates agrees with the idea of pushing for incremental changes within specific industries. For instance, promoting the use of recycled paper in the publishing industry or buying plant-based meat options at restaurants. These choices can drive demand and eventually lower costs for more sustainable options.

The Importance of Continuity and Bipartisan Agreement:

Political stability in environmental policies is vital. Gates warns against alternating periods of focus and neglect on climate issues, as this inhibits long-term investments by companies in green technologies. He argues for the importance of bipartisan support and a continuous, thirty-year effort to make meaningful progress.

The Moral Imperative for Young People:

Young people can play a decisive role by advocating for a moral cause that goes beyond individual success. Their voices are crucial in establishing long-term, bipartisan goals for combating climate change.

Urgency and Long-term Effects:

Bill Gates emphasizes that the world needs a “war-like priority” to combat climate change. He mentions that every year the situation worsens, leading to potential sea-level rise, uninhabitable equatorial regions, and accelerated changes to ecosystems, particularly in the northern regions of countries like Canada.

Human Ingenuity and Innovation:

Gates is optimistic due to the peak of human ingenuity. He cites various innovative solutions, such as CarbonCure, a Canadian company that aims to reintegrate CO2 into cement, and Quidnet, which is working on energy storage by pumping water into ground formations. Gates highlights that even if 80% of these innovative ideas fail, the remaining ones could make a significant impact.

Consumer and Corporate Responsibility:

Gates suggests that individuals can make a difference by becoming informed and sharing knowledge. Consumers should consider the sustainability practices of companies whose products they buy. This consumer pressure can drive the volume of greener approaches in various sectors, from steel to beef.

Political and Financial Leverage:

According to Gates, one’s political voice is essential in bringing about change. He also advocates “voting with your dollar” by making eco-friendly consumer choices and ensuring that the company one works for is a responsible citizen in addressing climate issues.

Funding Innovation and Policy:

Gates mentions a fund called “Catalyst” that people can pay into to support the development and scaling of super-green products. He also talks about the importance of government policies that favor long-term investments in green technology, emphasizing the need for bipartisan agreement on climate goals.

Research and Development (R&D) Funding:

Bill Gates discusses the importance of governmental commitment to raising research and development (R&D) funds. Using Canada as an example, he notes that such commitments can indeed be fulfilled, setting the stage for further innovation in climate solutions.

Role of Investment and Philanthropy:

Beyond government R&D, Gates highlights the need for both private and philanthropic funding. He discusses his initiative, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, created in 2015, to back companies focusing on climate priorities. This investment aims to evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of innovations like CarbonCure.

Green Premium and Market Acceptance:

Gates introduces the concept of the “green premium,” which refers to the initial higher cost of eco-friendly products like green steel. He notes that consumer and business willingness to pay this premium is crucial for the success and scaling of such products.

Regulatory and Corporate Influence:

Gates points out that governmental regulations and building codes can drive demand for green products. Large, wealthy companies, particularly in tech, can also play a role as early adopters of more expensive, greener alternatives.

Consumer-Driven Demand:

Using the example of plant-based meat companies like Impossible and Beyond, Gates describes the ideal situation where consumer demand exceeds expectations. This allows companies to reinvest in product development, driving down costs and making the products indistinguishable from their less-sustainable counterparts.

Importance of Small Population Countries:

Bill Gates addresses the question of why countries with smaller populations, like Canada, should invest in combating climate change. He suggests that despite their size, these countries have an ethical responsibility to participate. This is particularly significant given their historical emissions and current wealth.

Humanitarian Aspects:

Gates stresses that the impacts of climate change are not only environmental but also humanitarian. The degradation of equatorial regions and permafrost areas will lead to large-scale migration and crop failures. Hence, wealthier countries have a moral obligation to aid in climate change solutions.

Economic Opportunities:

Gates points out that investing in green technology not only fulfills a moral duty but also opens up economic opportunities. Companies focused on eco-friendly solutions, like CarbonCure, can create jobs and export products globally, leading to a new wave of industrial growth.

Comparisons with Health Research:

Drawing a parallel with countries that fund health research, Gates notes that tackling climate change will ultimately benefit the world, but can also boost domestic industries. Research jobs in this area are typically high-paying, and the production of green technologies can be lucrative.

Transition and Balance:

The shift towards greener industries will impact existing sectors like hydrocarbons. Gates mentions the need to manage this transition carefully to ensure that no communities are left behind. He emphasizes that the research and development phase and subsequent adjustments are inevitable, urging countries to lead the way in this transformation.

Freight vs Passenger Trains:

Bill Gates elaborates on the state of trains in North America, pointing out that while freight trains are highly efficient, the system is not well optimized for passenger travel. He attributes this gap partly to North America’s love for cars and road-based travel. Gates contrasts this with Europe, where high gas taxes have made train travel more attractive, leading to a more balanced system between freight and passenger trains.

Green Fuels:

Gates also discusses the possibility of moving towards green fuels as a means of combating climate change. He mentions green diesel for trains and green aviation fuel for planes, saying he spends $7 million annually on green aviation fuel to offset his carbon footprint.

Heat Pumps and Consumer Awareness:

Gates addresses the topic of heat pumps as a more energy-efficient home heating and cooling solution. He explains that the initial cost may be higher, but it pays off over time in reduced energy bills. The challenge lies in raising awareness and perhaps facilitating the initial investment through government or private sector financing.

Policy vs Private Investment:

Lastly, in a Q&A segment, Gates emphasizes the importance of both electing officials who prioritize climate change and investing in companies developing climate solutions. He stresses that government policies are crucial in bringing down the prices of emerging green technologies, like electric cars.

The discussion touches on various aspects of sustainable technology and the importance of policy, consumer awareness, and infrastructure in advancing green solutions.

Importance of Government in Green Energy Transition:

Bill Gates emphasizes that the government plays an indispensable role in the green energy transition, particularly in rich countries. Policies at the governmental level help to set examples for other nations and contribute to research and development that drives down the costs of green technologies. He credits governmental policies for advancements in electric cars, such as improving battery life and driving range.

Bottlenecks in Industry Transition to Green Energy:

According to Gates, manufacturing sectors like steel and cement are the most challenging industries to convert to green energy. These sectors often have slim profit margins and low R&D budgets. Additionally, they have to compete internationally, often against companies not subject to stringent environmental regulations. Gates mentions that traditional departments of energy often lack expertise in these manufacturing areas because the focus has usually been on energy, not on broader issues like emissions from industrial processes or agriculture.

Beyond Just “Energy”:

Gates points out that the term “energy” is often too limiting when discussing greenhouse gas emissions. While it covers emissions from fossil fuels, it doesn’t account for other significant sources, such as methane emissions from livestock. He suggests that a more inclusive term is needed to capture the full range of greenhouse gas-emitting activities.

Challenges in Converting Manufacturing Sector:

The manufacturing sector, especially industries like steel and cement, presents unique challenges for green conversion. These industries often have many smaller companies that might not have the resources for significant R&D investments. They also face international competition, complicating the implementation of stricter green regulations.

Electric Companies Have Upside Potential:

Unlike many manufacturing sectors, electric companies have growth opportunities in the transition to green energy, according to Gates. Because of this upside, they are often more articulate and proactive in adopting sustainable practices.

Advocacy vs. Innovation:

In the context of adopting technologies like heat pumps for home heating and cooling, Gates notes that sometimes the bottleneck is not innovation but rather consumer awareness and advocacy. People may be risk-averse to paying more upfront for green technologies, even if it results in lower long-term costs. Gates suggests that both government and private sector financing could play roles in boosting adoption.

Challenge of Simplicity:

Bill Gates explains that one of the biggest challenges in writing a book on climate change was simplifying 15 years of his learning into an approachable format. He aimed to cover key metrics and outline a plan, while avoiding excessive jargon or “showing off” complex terms. He emphasizes that climate change intersects with multiple domains like chemistry, economics, politics, and physics, and the challenge lay in making this multidisciplinary topic accessible.

Process and Timing:

Gates states that although the book was long in the making, he specifically spent about three months focusing on it. He had several editing passes and collaborated with Josh Daniel. Writing the book was, according to him, the “ultimate test” of whether he truly understood the topic. His preparation included numerous instances where he was asked to explain climate change in various settings, providing him opportunities to refine his understanding and communication.

Role of External Knowledge:

He credits Canadian author Vaslav Smil for enriching his understanding of energy and civilization. Smil’s works served as a significant source of knowledge for Gates, who recommends Smil for anyone looking to understand various aspects of energy in greater depth.

Personal Fascination:

Gates reveals his fascination with the topic, likening the learning process to a “science fair” which he loves. His book aims to share this fascination and deep understanding with a broader audience.

Interaction and Anecdotes:

Gates mentions that people have asked him to explain climate change in various informal settings, including on plane flights. These interactions served as practice sessions for him to refine how he talks about a complex issue like climate change. The humorous note about people asking Gates about climate change in casual settings like planes underlines the public interest in the topic, as well as Gates’ approachability.

Government’s Role in Crisis Management:

Bill Gates discusses the importance of government intervention in dealing with crises like pandemics and climate change. He feels governments haven’t stepped up the way they should. He emphasizes that governments are trusted to hire experts and invest in preventive measures, similar to earthquake building codes and defense budgets. The COVID-19 pandemic serves as a lesson for governments to be prepared for future large-scale crises.

Long-term Thinking for Climate Change:

Gates outlines that unlike pandemics, where quick diagnosis and vaccines can mitigate damage, climate change needs long-term solutions. He asserts that the problem is severe and the lead time to change all the infrastructure is many decades. Unlike a pandemic, there is no single solution like a vaccine for climate change. The problem is cumulative and worsens each year due to historical emissions.

Local Government Actions:

He also talks about the role local governments can play, especially in terms of permitting for wind farms, solar transmission lines, and nuclear power. Local governments are also responsible for transportation infrastructure and can invest in electric buses, contributing to global pollution reduction.

Global Participation:

Gates reiterates that tackling climate change is a global effort and that countries like China, the largest emitter, need to participate. He mentions that the U.S. and China need to cooperate on this issue, highlighting that China’s current climate commitment is to reach zero emissions by 2060, which is a decade later than most rich countries.

Education and Climate Change:

Finally, Gates emphasizes the importance of integrating climate change education into the school curriculum. He suggests that interest in climate can drive interest in science and vice versa. He believes a science-based approach to understanding climate change will motivate kids to learn.

Overall, Bill Gates underscores the necessity for proactive and comprehensive action from both governments and individuals to tackle the pressing issues of pandemics and climate change.

Climate Change in Education:

Bill Gates emphasizes the importance of incorporating climate change into educational curricula. He mentions that his group is working on a climate change course aimed at educating students as young as eighth grade. The goal is to prepare future generations for careers in politics or science where they could contribute to solving the climate crisis.

Understanding Green Premiums:

Gates introduces the concept of “Green Premiums,” the price difference between producing a product in the traditional manner and producing it in an environmentally friendly manner that results in no emissions. For example, electric cars have a smaller green premium that is shrinking, whereas the production of green cement almost doubles its price.

Importance of Low Green Premiums:

Gates underscores that the areas with the highest green premiums require the most attention. This is because high green premiums deter developing countries from adopting green technologies. He highlights that in 2050, developing countries will be responsible for a significant percentage of global emissions. Thus, it is crucial not just for developed countries to eliminate their emissions but also to lower green premiums across sectors to enable universal adoption of green technologies.

Global Responsibility:

Finally, Gates points out that the responsibility of mitigating climate change is not confined to reducing emissions in developed countries. Rather, the developed world has the obligation to advance science and technology to make green alternatives more affordable for developing countries. This involves risk-taking capital, research budgets, and the leveraging of the unique capabilities that different regions, like North America, bring to the table.

Philanthropic Perspective:

Bill Gates explains that he doesn’t see his own charitable giving as a “sacrifice,” given his immense wealth. He expresses admiration for individuals who make smaller, but significant, personal sacrifices to support causes they believe in. Gates focuses on the “quality” of his giving by aiming for high-impact areas, like global health and vaccine development.

The Giving Pledge & Digital Era of Giving:

Gates mentions the Giving Pledge, an initiative to encourage wealthy individuals to commit to giving away the majority of their wealth. He also highlights his involvement in ‘normal scale’ giving platforms, such as Giving Tuesday and teacher’s choice, which aim to democratize philanthropy in the digital age. However, he acknowledges that there is work to be done in making the impact of gifts more transparent.

Policy and Global View on Giving:

Gates discusses the need for policies to encourage philanthropy and notes that countries like Canada and the U.S. are already ahead in this regard. Despite this, he feels that there is room for improvement and innovation in this space to further boost charitable contributions.

Closing Remarks:

The host thanks Gates for his insights and contributions, emphasizing the importance of the discussion. The event also highlights two environmentally conscious projects at the University of Toronto, reinforcing the notion that solutions to pressing issues are already at hand and ready to be implemented.

The segment concludes with thanks from the hosts and encouragement to attend similar future events.