Reinventing Fire:
Amory Lovins presents a revolutionary plan to transition the United States from fossil fuels to efficiency and renewable energy, detailed in the peer-reviewed synthesis “Reinventing Fire.” The current energy system is disconnected, aging, and inefficient, requiring significant refurbishment. The shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy involves distinct changes in oil consumption and electricity generation.

Efficiency and Renewables:
The envisioned energy system in 2050 is efficient, connected, and distributed, eliminating the need for coal, oil, or nuclear energy. Super-efficient vehicles, buildings, and factories rely on a secure, modern, and resilient electricity system. Creating the core industries of this new energy era could be $5 trillion cheaper than business as usual while supporting a significantly larger US economy. This transition requires no new inventions, federal taxes, mandates, subsidies, or laws, avoiding gridlock in Washington.

Solving a Tough Problem:
Expanding the boundaries of a tough problem increases the options, degrees of freedom, and synergies available for solutions. Integrating all energy-using sectors and four kinds of innovation in technology, design, policy, and strategy yields significant synergistic benefits.

Hidden Costs of Oil:
Including hidden economic and military costs, oil costs the United States upwards of a sixth of GDP, exceeding $6 billion per day. Automobiles consume three-fifths of mobility fuel, and their weight contributes to energy consumption.

Vehicle Fitness and Electric Autos:
Ultra-light, ultra-strong materials like carbon fiber composites can dramatically reduce vehicle weight, making them simpler and cheaper to build. Lighter, more slippery vehicles require less force to move, enabling the use of smaller and cheaper electric propulsion systems. Electric vehicles become affordable as their batteries or fuel cells become smaller, lighter, and less expensive. A temporary feebate program can accelerate the shift to electric vehicles by providing rebates for efficient new autos and imposing fees on inefficient ones.

Automotive Revolution:
The transition to electric vehicles is comparable to the shift from mechanical typewriters to Moore’s Law-driven computers, with significant implications for the automotive industry. Vehicle fitness opens up a new automotive competitive strategy, saving more oil and making electrification affordable. America could lead this automotive revolution, but currently, Germany is in the forefront, with companies like Volkswagen and BMW announcing production of advanced carbon fiber electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

The Potential of Carbon Fiber:
Innovations in carbon fiber technology can reduce the cost of manufacturing automotive parts and save on capital needs. Faster and cheaper manufacturing techniques can scale up to automotive speeds and costs while maintaining aerospace performance.

Fuel Savings in Transportation:
Walmart has achieved significant fuel savings in its truck fleet through technological improvements and smarter logistics. Technological advancements have the potential to further increase fuel efficiency in trucks and airplanes.

Military Innovations Driving Civilian Progress:
Military research in energy efficiency can accelerate civilian advances in mobility and energy. Past military research has led to transformative innovations like the internet, GPS, jet engines, and microchips.

Reducing Congestion and Unnecessary Driving:
Traffic congestion wastes billions of dollars due to idle people, vehicles, and roads. Charging real-time costs for road infrastructure, using smart IT, enabling smart growth real estate models, and implementing intelligent transport systems can reduce unnecessary driving. These methods can save trillions of dollars and increase access to mobility with less driving.

Achieving a No-Oil Economy:
In 40 years, the US economy can use no oil, saving $4 trillion. Vehicles can utilize a mix of electricity, hydrogen fuel cells, and advanced biofuels. Airplanes and trucks can use advanced biofuels, hydrogen, or natural gas, eliminating the need for oil. The required biofuel can be obtained without using cropland and without harming soil fertility or climate.

Institutional Acupuncture and Tipping Points:
Institutional acupuncture can accelerate savings by addressing business logic congestion. Six sectors in need of transformation are at or past their tipping point, easing the transition to a more sustainable economy. Peak oil is being driven by demand rather than supply, making oil uncompetitive even at low prices.

Electrified Autos and the Grid:
Electrified autos can benefit the grid by providing storage and flexibility resources, facilitating the integration of solar and wind power. The electrification of autos and the transformation of electricity generation promise significant disruptions in the electricity sector.

Efficiency and Savings:
Buildings can triple energy productivity, saving $1.4 trillion net present value. Industry can double energy productivity with a 21% internal rate of return. Integrative design can further boost savings and make small savings more cost-effective.

Industrial Energy Savings:
Pumps, the biggest use of motors, can be redesigned to save 86% of energy. Compounding savings in the pipe save 10 units of fuel and cost for every unit saved. Industrial redesigns can save 30-60% of energy with a two to three year payback.

Renewable Energy Growth:
China leads the explosive growth and plummeting costs of renewable energy. Solar and wind power are marketplace winners, with private investment and capacity surpassing nuclear. Half of the world’s new generating capacity for the past three years has been renewable.

Replacing Aging Infrastructure:
The aging electricity system needs to be replaced by 2050, costing about $6 trillion at present value. Distributed renewable supply can redesign the grid into netted islandable microgrids, reducing risks and maximizing customer choice.

Efficient Use and Renewable Supply:
Efficiency and diverse, dispersed renewable supply are transforming the electricity system. Utilities are shifting from selling more electricity to rewarding bill reduction, promoting efficiency, renewables, and combined heat and power. 80-100% renewable electricity is feasible, reliable, and cost-effective.

Benefits Beyond Electricity:
Reinventing fire, combining electricity and oil revolutions, can lead the United States off oil and coal by 2050. This shift can save $5 trillion, reduce risk and insecurity, and cut fossil carbon emissions by 82-86%.

Choice and Flexibility:
The energy future is a matter of choice, not fate. Efficiency and renewables offer flexible solutions, challenging the assumption that energy needed per dollar of GDP can only increase.

Introduction:
Amory Lovins highlights the progress made in energy efficiency and the potential of new technologies to accelerate this transformation.

Solving the Energy Problem:
The key to solving the energy problem lies in expanding the perspective and looking at the entire system. The results may seem unbelievable, but major discoveries often face public incredulity.

Rocky Mountain Institute’s Initiatives:
Rocky Mountain Institute’s implementation initiatives help companies speed up their energy transformation journey.

Overcoming Old Thinking:
There is still resistance to new energy solutions due to old thinking and outdated approaches. Companies hampered by old thinking will eventually become irrelevant.

The New Fire:
The transformation to new energy sources is a profound change in human history. The new fire is abundant, clean, and sustainable, unlike traditional fossil fuels.

Flameless Fire and Efficiency:
The new energy sources are flameless when used efficiently, avoiding the negative impacts of fossil fuels.

Capturing the $5 Trillion Opportunity:
Everyone has a stake in the $5 trillion opportunity presented by the energy transformation. Lovins’ book provides guidance on how individuals can seize this opportunity.

Call to Action:
Lovins invites the audience to engage with Rocky Mountain Institute and each other to work towards a richer, fairer, cooler, and safer world by reinventing fire.