Alan Kay (VPRI Co-founder) – The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Invent It (Nov 2016)
Chapters
00:00:10 Predicting the Future: Strategies for Incremental Change vs. Radical Innovation
Introduction: Alan Kay, President of the Viewpoints Research Institute, emphasizes the need to avoid complacency and embrace change in education. He highlights the challenges of predicting the future, particularly when it involves creating new categories.
Dealing with the Tyranny of the Present: Kay discusses the limitations of living in the present and the tendency to rely on familiar categories. He suggests assuming favorable exponential trends and projecting needs 30 years into the future to envision desirable outcomes. This approach allows for the creation of visions that are not constrained by current limitations.
Vision vs. Mission and Goals: Kay differentiates between a vision and a mission or goals. A vision is a vague picture of a desirable future state, while missions and goals are more specific objectives. He cites the example of ARPA’s vision for a worldwide self-healing network and interactive computing.
Creating Lesser Visions and Paying for the Future: Kay explains the process of breaking down a long-term vision into smaller, more manageable steps. He emphasizes the importance of paying for the future by investing in research and development. Xerox PARC’s development of the Macintosh in the 1970s is given as an example.
Inventing Software and Crawling Toward the Future: Kay stresses the need for time and resources to invent software that will shape the future. He advocates for a gradual approach, starting with lesser visions and working towards more ambitious goals.
Education in the 1960s and the Importance of Curriculum and Teacher Training: Kay acknowledges the challenges faced by education in the 1960s but emphasizes the value of the lessons learned during that time. He highlights the importance of developing high-quality curriculum and providing effective teacher training.
Three Great Minds and Their Contributions: Kay pays tribute to three great minds who passed away that year: Marvin Minsky, Jerome Brunner, and Seymour Papert. He shares their insights on education, emphasizing the need for understanding concepts in multiple ways, adapting teaching to students’ developmental levels, and inventing new mathematics for young learners.
00:09:55 Education Beyond Vocational Training and Citizenship
Vocational Training vs. Real Education: Alan Kay criticizes the emphasis on vocational training in schools, particularly in engineering at UCLA, arguing that it is not a true education and is merely about making a living. He contrasts this with a real education, which encompasses citizenship and richness and prepares individuals for a complex society.
Citizenship and Richness: Kay highlights the importance of citizenship and the need for schools to foster an understanding of civic responsibility and engagement. He emphasizes the importance of a well-rounded education that goes beyond vocational training and includes richness, such as the arts and humanities.
Prop 13 and Referenda: Kay references Prop 13, a California proposition that limited property taxes, as an example of why important issues should not be decided by referenda. He argues that referenda can lead to short-sighted decisions that undermine the quality of education and the overall well-being of society.
00:12:16 Cognition and Learning: Challenges and Insights
The Importance of Education in Making a Life: Education should prepare individuals to lead fulfilling lives in a larger global context. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights provides a broader perspective on education, emphasizing the need to coexist peacefully in a shared world.
The Brain’s Limitations and Thinking: Our brains are not naturally equipped for thinking, as it requires significant energy and effort. The brain is primarily designed for reacting and occasionally learning. Most of the knowledge we possess has been acquired in the past few thousand years, despite our species’ existence for 200,000 years.
Humans as Hamlet and System One: Humans are characterized by their limited cognitive capacity, resembling Hamlet’s existential struggles combined with System One’s biases. Our minds are like theaters, where we reside in the stories we create. This can lead to delusions, as we often mistake these stories for reality.
Our Limited Capacity and Thinking: Our cognitive capacity is remarkably limited, and it has diminished over time. Most of our thinking is not distinctly human, with many actions shared by other mammals. Our perception of our own intelligence is often inflated due to stories and beliefs that portray us as highly intelligent.
Implications for Education: Understanding these limitations is crucial for developing effective educational strategies. We should avoid treating beliefs as absolute realities and recognize the constraints of our cognitive capacity. Educators should focus on fostering critical thinking and problem-solving skills rather than rote memorization.
00:15:32 Hallucinations, Surprise Reactions, and the Dopamine Effect
Hallucinations and the Brain: Human eyes have a poor design compared to other animals, with blood vessels covering light-sensitive cells. The optic nerve and blood vessel entry points lack light-sensitive cells, creating blind spots. The brain hallucinates to compensate for these blind spots and maintain a coherent visual perception.
System 1 and System 2 Responses: System 1 is a fast-reaction mechanism that operates subconsciously and prepares for future events. System 2 is a more ponderable and slower mechanism that is involved in conscious thought and decision-making.
Surprise Reactions: Surprise parties trigger a System 1 response, which is a fast reaction to change. The initial surprise is followed by fear, then crying, and finally happiness. This emotional roller coaster is due to the release of hormones like adrenaline, dopamine, and serotonin, which create a sense of relief and euphoria.
Manipulation and Emotion: System 1 responses can be manipulated for good or ill. In theater, surprises are used to create emotional experiences. In political rallies, surprises are used to manipulate emotions and influence opinions.
00:22:09 System One and System Two Learning in Education
System 1 and System 2: System 1: Fast, automatic, and intuitive thinking. System 2: Slow, deliberate, and controlled thinking.
Example of System 1 Learning: Learning to drive a car: Initially, learners experience tunnel vision, difficulty perceiving surroundings, and limited cognitive processing. Over time, through practice, System 1 learns to handle real-time aspects of driving, such as stop signs and following instructions.
System 1 in Education: Traditional schooling often focuses on System 1 learning, emphasizing memorization, recall, and quick reactions. This approach is suitable for certain situations, such as immediate danger or survival instincts.
System 2 Learning: System 2 learning involves cognitive teaching, encouraging critical thinking and problem-solving skills. However, without the necessary skills and knowledge, System 2 teaching can be ineffective.
The Need for Balance: In today’s world, education should address both System 1 and System 2 learning. System 1 skills are essential for handling immediate tasks, while System 2 skills are crucial for complex problem-solving and future-oriented thinking.
The Challenge of Education: The challenge lies in finding a balance between System 1 and System 2 learning, avoiding the extremes of rote memorization and abstract theorizing. Educators should strive to develop curricula and teaching methods that foster both types of learning.
Cognitive Biases and System 1 Thinking in Education: Schools often focus on System 1 thinking, emphasizing easily testable skills and rote memorization. Common biases include reliance on standardized testing, behavioral objectives, and a focus on recall rather than understanding. John Hattie’s book on cognitive biases provides valuable insights into these issues.
The Problem with Current Educational Practices: Education systems are cluttered with outdated and irrelevant content, neglecting essential 21st-century skills. The current emphasis on vocational training is insufficient, ignoring the need for holistic development. Vi Hart’s quote, “We must ensure that human wisdom exceeds human power,” highlights the true goal of education.
Rethinking Computing Education: Coding should not be taught in isolation but rather integrated into a broader context of science, systems, and society. The focus should be on computational thinking and problem-solving skills, not just learning algorithms. Beware of well-meaning but naive approaches and those seeking to profit from educational trends.
Historical Perspectives on Educational Reform: Francis Bacon’s book, “The New Instrument for Knowledge,” criticized education’s shortcomings and called for new ways of thinking. Bacon identified four main culprits: human cognitive limitations, ineffective learning methods, language’s inability to represent ideas, and the influence of culture. Science is not just about studying atoms or galaxies but also about developing strategies to overcome cognitive biases and promote effective learning.
The Importance of Expert Guidance and Practice: Learning complex skills, such as playing an instrument or mastering a language, requires expert guidance and extensive practice. Natural genetic predispositions are not enough; years of effort are necessary to achieve fluency. The goal should be to develop a deep understanding and appreciation for the subject matter, not just technical proficiency.
00:36:09 Embracing Innovative Pedagogies in Education
The Importance of Early Childhood Environment: Early childhood environment plays a crucial role in shaping children’s learning and development. Children are genetically predisposed to learn what’s in their culture without complaints. Environments can be artificial and have both positive and negative impacts on children’s learning.
Montessori’s Approach to Early Childhood Education: Montessori believed that the job of early school is to inculcate the most powerful epistemological ideas of the culture into the children through the environment. Montessori schools aimed to create an artificial environment that embodies the desired epistemological framework. The most important person in a Montessori school is the teacher who understands the epistemological framework and how to foster children’s natural desire to learn.
The Challenge of Scaling Effective Early Childhood Education: Effective early childhood education methods like Montessori’s approach are challenging to scale due to the need for highly trained and dedicated teachers. Traditional teaching methods, such as rote memorization and lectures, are easier to scale but may not be as effective in fostering children’s natural desire to learn.
The Role of Technology in Early Childhood Education: Technology, like writing, can be a powerful tool in early childhood education. Technology can be used to create engaging and interactive learning environments that cater to children’s natural curiosity and desire to explore.
00:40:22 Bridging Educational Gaps: The Next Technological Revolution After the Printing Press
Background: Writing, not word of mouth, has enabled us to learn about ancient thinkers like Socrates. The printing press revolutionized education by making books cheap and accessible to students.
New Frontiers: The next qualitative step in education is to replicate the ghost of teaching in technology, similar to how great writers could capture their ideas in writing. This goal is not about replacing great teachers but providing a better alternative than no teacher, bad teachers, or mediocre teachers.
Challenges: The problem of creating a ghost of teaching in technology is harder than personal computing and the internet, which took 14 years to develop. It requires a long-term commitment that spans decades and transcends administrations.
Call to Action: We should focus on inventing the next real thing after the printing press and make it work for the great ideas in education. It’s time to start working on this important challenge and shift our efforts away from less impactful pursuits.
Abstract
The Future of Education: Embracing Innovation and Overcoming the Tyranny of the Present
Introduction: Reimagining Education for the 21st Century
In an era marked by rapid technological advancements and complex societal challenges, the traditional education system is under scrutiny for its failure to keep pace with the changing world. The present state of education, deeply rooted in conventional methods, is a significant impediment to embracing transformative innovations. This article delves into the critical aspects of redefining educational paradigms, guided by the insights of visionary thinkers and the imperative for a system that prepares students for the future.
Vision and Innovation: The Key to Educational Transformation
The concept of a long-term vision in education, as opposed to short-term, incremental goals, is pivotal. Visionaries like Alan Kay, President of the Viewpoints Research Institute, emphasize the need to avoid complacency and embrace change in education. He highlights the challenges of predicting the future, particularly when it involves creating new categories. Visionaries like Kay propose an approach of projecting a “whisper of a need” exponentially into the future to envision a state where that need becomes essential. This visionary outlook, exemplified by historical precedents like Xerox PARC’s creation of advanced computing technology ahead of its time, underscores the importance of breaking away from the present’s limitations to explore future possibilities.
Curriculum and Pedagogy: Building the Foundations of Future Learning
Innovating in curriculum development and teacher training is crucial. The lessons from the 1960s in curriculum reform underscore the need for contemporary education to pivot towards innovative pedagogical approaches. Great minds like Marvin Minsky, Jerome Bruner, and Seymour Papert, who passed away in 2016, have emphasized diverse perspectives, adapting teaching to intellectual levels, and learning through hands-on experiences. These insights are critical in shaping an education system that is dynamic, inclusive, and future-oriented.
Addressing Systemic Challenges in Education
The current education system’s focus on vocational training and failure to prepare students for active citizenship are significant concerns. Alan Kay criticizes the emphasis on vocational training in schools, particularly in engineering at UCLA, arguing that it is not a true education and is merely about making a living. He contrasts this with a real education, which encompasses citizenship and richness and prepares individuals for a complex society. Historical decisions, such as California’s Proposition 13, have had profound impacts on educational richness and diversity. Additionally, our cognitive limitations, as highlighted by our tendency to treat stories in our minds as reality, call for a reevaluation of our approach to learning and thinking.
In exploring the neuroscience of hallucinations and cognitive responses, it is essential to consider the design limitations of our eyes compared to other animals. These limitations result in blind spots where blood vessel entry points lack light-sensitive cells. To compensate for these blind spots, the brain constructs a coherent visual perception through a process akin to hallucination. This phenomenon is linked to System 1 and System 2 responses, with System 1 being a fast-reaction mechanism that subconsciously prepares for future events, and System 2 involving more deliberate, conscious thought and decision-making. For example, a surprise party can trigger a System 1 response, leading to a roller coaster of emotions due to the release of hormones like adrenaline, dopamine, and serotonin. System 1 responses can also be manipulated in various contexts, such as theater or political rallies, to evoke emotional experiences or influence opinions.
The Role of Technology in Education
Computing, often misconstrued as merely coding, is in fact a language for understanding new contexts in the modern world. It should be used as a tool for exploration and creation. The potential of computers in education, akin to the transformative impact of the printing press, lies in creating dynamic and interactive learning experiences. However, developing effective educational technology that captures the essence of great teaching is a complex task that demands a deep understanding of both technology and pedagogy.
Balancing Cognitive Approaches in Learning
The balance between System 1 (fast, intuitive thinking) and System 2 (slow, deliberate thinking) is essential in education. Traditional schooling, with its emphasis on System 1 learning, such as memorization and quick recall, fails to nurture higher-order thinking skills. A more comprehensive approach is needed, one that addresses both types of thinking and fosters critical thinking, creativity, and systems thinking.
In considering System 1 and System 2 learning in education, it’s important to understand that System 1 involves fast, automatic, and intuitive responses, suitable for certain situations like immediate danger or survival instincts. In contrast, System 2 learning is slow, deliberate, and controlled, focusing on cognitive teaching, which encourages critical thinking and problem-solving skills. Traditional education often leans heavily on System 1 learning, yet for effective education, a balance is crucial. While System 1 skills are essential for immediate tasks, System 2 skills are vital for complex problem-solving and future-oriented thinking.
Montessori and the Importance of Environment in Learning
Montessori’s philosophy underscores the critical role of the environment in learning. The school should not just teach but embody the culture’s epistemological ideas. Teachers play a pivotal role in this process, requiring training that enables them to understand and support the child’s learning process. The challenge lies in scaling this approach while ensuring the integration of technology in a manner that promotes meaningful learning experiences.
A Call for a Paradigm Shift in Education
The future of education demands a paradigm shift – one that transcends the limitations of the present and embraces long-term visions. This shift requires acknowledging our cognitive limitations, reimagining the role of technology, and balancing various cognitive approaches in learning. The goal is to create an education system that not only prepares students for the future but also instills in them the ability to think critically, creatively, and systemically. The time to act is now, and it calls for a collaborative effort among educators, technologists, policymakers, and society at large to revolutionize the way we learn and teach.
Additional Insights:
The importance of the early childhood environment is crucial in shaping children’s learning and development. Children are genetically predisposed to learn what’s in their culture, often without complaints. However, environments can be artificial and have both positive and negative impacts on children’s learning. Montessori’s approach to early childhood education is to inculcate the most powerful epistemological ideas of the culture into children through the environment. Montessori schools aim to create an artificial environment that embodies the desired epistemological framework, with the teacher being the most important person in understanding and fostering this framework.
Scaling effective early childhood education methods, such as Montessori’s approach, presents challenges due to the need for highly trained and dedicated teachers. Traditional teaching methods, while easier to scale, may not be as effective in fostering children’s natural desire to learn. Technology, akin to writing, can be a powerful tool in early childhood education, creating engaging and interactive learning environments that cater to children’s natural curiosity and desire to explore.
Looking forward, the next qualitative step in education is to replicate the essence of great teaching in technology, much like how great writers captured their ideas in writing. This goal is not about replacing great teachers but offering a better alternative than no teacher, bad teachers, or mediocre teachers. However, the challenge of creating this ‘ghost of teaching’ in technology is daunting, requiring a long-term commitment that spans decades and transcends administrations.
In conclusion, there is a call to action to invent the next real thing after the printing press and make it work for the great ideas in education. The time is ripe to start working on this important challenge and shift our efforts away from less impactful pursuits.
Alan Kay's vision for personal workstations emphasized powerful tools for creativity and learning, leading to milestones like Smalltalk and the graphical user interface. His Dynabook concept aimed to provide information access anywhere, inspiring the development of modern portable devices....
Insights from pioneers like Alan Kay and Joe Armstrong reveal the evolution of computing, emphasizing the importance of learning, scaling, and addressing unsolved problems. Computer scientists should think like scientists, considering scaling aspects early and embracing failure to drive innovation....
Alan Kay critiques modern computer science for emphasizing form over content and calls for a paradigm shift towards innovation and user-centric design. He advocates for a holistic approach to education that fosters creativity, perspective, and epistemological frameworks to drive the future of computing....
Alan Kay, a Turing Award laureate, advocates for a practical, hands-on approach to computer science education, emphasizing simplicity, systems thinking, and a beginner's mindset. He calls for a shift from theoretical rigor to practical problem-solving, preparing students to contribute to the advancement of computing....
Alan Kay, a pioneer in object-oriented programming, emphasized the significance of holistic approaches, creativity, architectural integrity, and continuous innovation in programming. Smalltalk's influence extends beyond syntax and libraries, embodying architectural principles and structural integrity, akin to the construction of the Chartres Cathedral....
Computing's evolution reflects human creativity, perception, and adaptability, with promises of future transformation. Computers' impact on human experience will continue to shape the world in profound ways....
Alan Kay emphasized strategic thinking in software engineering with a focus on domain-specific languages, criticized current computing systems, and envisioned dynamic and efficient computing in the future. Kay highlighted the need for strategic thinking in software engineering with a focus on domain-specific languages, criticized current computing systems, and envisioned dynamic...