Overview:
Alan Kay is widely recognized as the father of the personal computer, despite his own disavowal of the title. Kay’s innovative ideas at the Xerox Palo Alto Research Center (PARC) brought significant attention to personal computers.

DynaBook and Alto:
Kay conceived the DynaBook, a powerful, lap-sized personal computer that would enable writing and drawing anywhere. DynaBook inspired the creation of Alto, the forerunner of the Macintosh computer.

Pioneering Innovations:
Kay introduced the use of icons instead of typed words to instruct computers. This pioneering approach revolutionized the way people interacted with computers.

Educational Background and Career:
Kay holds a bachelor’s degree in mathematics and molecular biology from the University of Colorado (1966). He served as a computer programmer during his Air Force years. Kay obtained his Ph.D. from the University of Utah in 1969. He joined the Artificial Intelligence Project at Stanford before becoming a founding principal at PARC in 1970.

Post-Xerox Career:
Kay worked as a chief scientist at Atari after leaving Xerox. Currently, he holds the position of Apple Fellow at Apple Computer. As an Apple Fellow, he has the freedom to pursue innovative ideas for the company’s future.

Passion for Music:
Music is Kay’s special passion beyond computers. He has been a professional jazz musician, a composer, and a builder of musical instruments.

Predicting the Future:
The speaker emphasizes the importance of shaping the future rather than merely reacting to it. Encourages a proactive approach to innovation and risk-taking.

Risk-Taking and Innovation:
Risk is an essential part of innovation and progress. Compares risk-taking to sports, highlighting the need for a strong batting average rather than aiming for success every time.

Predictability of the Future:
The boring future is easy to predict, while transformative changes are challenging to foresee. Extrapolation from past trends often leads to inaccurate predictions.

Market Surveys and Customer Feedback:
Customers often request incremental improvements within their existing context. Japanese companies focus on building variations of their best ideas and directly testing them with customers rather than relying on market surveys.

Xerox’s Experience with Plain Paper Copying:
Xerox had a working plain paper copier, the 914, in the 1950s but struggled to market it. IBM, after conducting a market survey through Arthur D. Little, rejected the idea due to a lack of perceived demand and the high cost compared to mimeographing.

Reasons for IBM’s Rejection:
IBM’s focus on being a computer company hindered their ability to see the potential of plain paper copying. They were entrenched in their existing products and failed to recognize the broader impact of the technology.

Xerox’s Perseverance and Success:
Enraged by IBM’s rejection, Xerox’s board allowed employees to use their life insurance as security to fund the first factory for the 914 copier. Xerox Corporation became the fastest-growing company of the 1960s but was later held in restraint of trade by the Federal Trade Commission for its dominance.

Origins of Xerox PARC’s Computing Innovations:
The researchers at Xerox PARC had innovative ideas to transform information management, including eliminating paper-based systems and embracing dynamic, interactive technologies.

The Alto Computer:
In 1972, Xerox PARC introduced the Alto, a revolutionary personal computer with 3 MIPS, a 500,000-pixel display, a mouse, and a three-megabyte disk. The Alto featured a user interface that allowed users to interact with information more naturally.

Laser Printing:
In the same year, Xerox PARC developed laser printing technology. The first laser printer had a remarkable resolution of 500 dots per inch and a speed of one page per second. The Xerox 3600 copiers, which were available in abundance, influenced the design and speed of the laser printer.

Ethernet:
Xerox PARC also developed the Ethernet networking technology in 1972. Ethernet enabled the connection of multiple computers and devices, facilitating data sharing and communication.

Production and Network Setup:
By 1975, Xerox PARC had built approximately 600 Alto computers and established a production line for these machines. The PARC network consisted of five interconnected Ethernet segments, ten laser printers, and a network address system that allowed users to access files and resources across geographically dispersed locations.

Xerox’s Decision to Not Commercialize:
Despite the remarkable innovations and working prototypes, Xerox officially decided not to market the Alto computer and related technologies in August 1976. This decision came four years after the initial development of these technologies and involved rejecting not just concepts but functional, fully developed machines. The decision had a significant impact on the commercialization of personal computing and networking technologies.

Human Extension Through Tools and Agents:
Humans extend themselves through tools and agents. Tools allow us to manipulate things, while agents can take on our goals and act on our behalf. Ideas are powerful agents because we can share them without losing them. We have built-in mechanisms for dealing with things outside of human scale, such as mainframes, through religion.

The Evolution of Personal Computing:
Mainframes were not perceived as tools or agents, leading to a religious approach to their use. Douglas Engelbart, considered the father of personal computing, demonstrated a desktop computing system in 1968, featuring a mouse, two-page display, and a root dice. Engelbart’s system had all the elements of modern desktop computing, but lacked the processing power for close interaction.

The First Personal Computer:
The first personal computer, built in 1967, aimed to provide a personal computing experience with controllable cycles. It was unsuccessful except with graduate students, but it led to the concept of personal computing.

The First Law of User Interface Design:
The users are not like us. Users are not necessarily like the designers, even if they are in the same field or have similar backgrounds.

The Technological Marvel and Sociological Disaster:
Unix was a technological marvel, but a sociological disaster. Graduate students, who were the primary users of Unix, were drawn to its complexity and the challenge of memorizing its commands. Other professional users, such as doctors and lawyers, found Unix to be too complex and difficult to use.

A New System at Rand Corporation:
A new system at Rand Corporation impressed the speaker in 1968. The system allowed users to create and manipulate objects on the screen using a mouse. This system was the precursor to modern-day window control.

Moore’s Law and Gordon Moore:
Gordon Moore, a founder of Intel, predicted in the late 60s that silicon transistors would get smaller and faster, doubling in performance every two years for the next 30 years. His prediction, known as Moore’s Law, has been remarkably accurate, with reality slightly ahead of the prediction.

Three Eras of Computing:
Mainframe Computing: Well underway, characterized by large, centralized systems serving multiple users. Desktop Computing: Machines built in the millions, targeting individual users. Intimate Computing: Machines built in the billions, with unique characteristics and a different set of users.

Exponential Growth and Market Potential:
The shift from mainframe to desktop computing saw a dramatic increase in revenues, from $40 billion to $80-90 billion in a few years. The far right, or intimate computing, market is yet to take off but is expected to surpass desktop computing revenues by 1998.

Challenges and Considerations:
Response time and path length are important considerations, particularly in the context of pervasive networking. MIPS (millions of instructions per second) is often emphasized, but access to resources may be more critical. Forcing functions driving the three eras of computing differ, with business driving mainframe computing, individuals driving desktop computing, and connectivity and portability driving intimate computing.

Exponential Curves and Human Perception:
Exponential curves, like epidemics, can be deceptive as the initial growth may appear slow and gradual. Our brains tend to think linearly rather than exponentially, making it challenging to grasp the impact of exponential growth.

Types of User Interfaces:
In the early days of computing, the user interface was designed for institutional use with a few thousand trained users. As the number of users increased to millions, the user interface needed to be learnable by end-users without extensive training. In the future, with billions of users, the user interface will need to learn from the user and adapt to their goals.

Changing Data Types:
Traditional data types like green and white sheets are being replaced by fonts, graphics, and multimedia. The most significant change in data types will be the move to multi-dimensional and multi-path media. This will allow for the integration of all interesting things in hyperspace, rather than having to maintain distance between them as in physical media.

Printing and Integration:
With the shift to multidimensional and dynamic data, printing will become less important. Spreadsheets for forecasting, for example, are not useful when printed because they are constantly changing. Integration of different types of data and media will become increasingly important in the future.

The Dominance of Flat File Databases in Fortune 1000 Companies:
Surprisingly, less than half of the databases in Fortune 1000 companies are relational databases. A majority of databases in the United States are still flat file databases, causing integration challenges. Companies like Arthur Anderson and Systems House profit from this integration complexity.

The Shift from Static Data Movement to Dynamic Object Exchange:
Traditional software involves moving static images from one place to another without breaking. The progression is towards moving dynamic things, leading to the concept of using an active application within another application. Microsoft Windows, OS2, and Macintosh offer ways to achieve this.

The Rise of End-User Developed Applications:
Custom applications for millions of users are impractical, necessitating user-friendly tools like spreadsheets and desktop publishing. By 1997, more than 80% of business applications will be developed by end users, not the IS department. End users can create applications using better user interfaces, but they lack the expertise for large-scale system design. This shift will impact consulting businesses and in-company IS operations, with a focus on architectures rather than applications.

The Emergence of Object-Oriented Programming and Agents:
Each computing area has its own programming style, data structure, and procedures, e.g., COBOL for institutional computing and object-oriented programming for Macintosh. Pervasive networking will introduce “agents” as active entities that require minimal additional information when sent from one place to another.

Object-Oriented Programming and Reduced Maintenance Costs:
Object-oriented programs are about 10 times smaller than COBOL programs for the same functionality. The new way of programming is another 10 times smaller, resulting in significant savings in maintenance costs. The size and tractability of the system are key factors in software development.

Architecture as an Analogy for Software Development:
The Greeks thought walls were only for holding up the roof, limiting the size of their structures. Medieval builders focused on structures with mostly windows, leading to new ways of handling stresses. Buckminster Fuller realized that structures could be made primarily of pulling forces, resulting in stronger and larger structures.

The Strength of End-User Developed Applications:
End-user developed applications are stronger because end-users know the applications they want. These applications are flexible and adaptable to changing needs, making them more robust in the long run.

Efficient Representation:
Improved representations lead to increased intelligence and problem-solving abilities. Paradigm shifts and innovative viewpoints unlock new perspectives and simplify complex issues.

Efficient Work:
Working harder is not always the solution; finding better representations and restructuring the world can lead to more efficient solutions.

Function and User Interface:
User interface plays a crucial role in tool effectiveness. A good user interface enhances the function of a tool, making it easier and more efficient to use.

Screwdriver Design:
The traditional screwdriver design is flawed, resulting in poor mechanical advantage and grip. A ball-shaped handle provides better grip and downward pressure, making it a more efficient design.

Environmental Acceptance:
Humans tend to accept things in their environment as unchangeable, even if they are outdated or inefficient. COBOL programming language, despite its limitations, continues to be used due to its familiarity and widespread adoption.

Prediction for the Future:
By the year 2000, there will still be a large number of COBOL programmers worldwide, highlighting the slow pace of change in certain areas of technology.

User Interface as Key to the Future:
The future is unpredictable, so looking at the past doesn’t help predict it. The key to the future lies in the user interface, not in technology, functions, or other aspects. The user interface will change as we move from one technology to another.

Shifting Client Interactions to Digital Platforms:
Most client interactions will move away from face-to-face consultations. AI systems will handle a significant portion of client interactions, particularly common questions.

AI-Powered Consultation Systems:
Apple is experimenting with an AI system that can address 85% of typical Macintosh queries. The system operates through electronic mail, providing responses that resemble human interactions. AI systems analyze queries, generate responses, and forward complex questions to human experts.

Future Consultation Trends:
Users will increasingly construct things for themselves. AI systems will assist users in building solutions, leading to a new era of personalized services.

Summary:
Ellen Kay emphasizes that the ongoing construction of systems will always require more knowledge and understanding. This knowledge will be partly supplied by automatic network mechanisms and partly by human consultation.

Changing Behavior:
To bring about desired changes, Ellen Kay suggests using a humorous anecdote involving Winston Churchill. In the story, Churchill prompts someone to change their behavior by involving them in the same conspiracy. This implies that involving people in the process of change is an effective strategy.

Ellen Kay’s Collaboration with John Altman:
Alan Kay introduces Ellen Kay as the guest speaker and shares how he selected her. He mentions a conversation he had with Ellen Kay about paradigm shifts and how it reminded him of John Altman, the new chairman. It turns out that Ellen Kay had worked with John Altman for the past five years.

Appreciation and Acknowledgment:
Alan Kay expresses his gratitude to Ellen Kay for sharing her insights and visions for the future. He acknowledges that there are markets, products, and futures that they haven’t yet considered. He thanks Ellen Kay for contributing to the quality of the conference and invites the audience to join him in another round of applause.

Coffee Break:
Alan Kay concludes the session by announcing a coffee break.