Jobs as an Apple Fellow:
Alan Kay describes his role as an Apple Fellow as being responsible for exploring fundamental truths and concepts to drive innovation and progress.

Evolution of Media:
Kay discusses the evolution of media from passive forms to interactive and dynamic platforms.

Importance of Communication:
He emphasizes the significance of communication between humans and technology, suggesting that the way we interact with technology will become as crucial as the way technology communicates with us.

Interactive Media and Engagement:
Kay predicts that interactive media will revolutionize the way we engage with information and each other, leading to more immersive and personalized experiences.

Impact on Education:
He highlights the potential of interactive media to transform education by making learning more engaging and interactive, allowing students to actively participate and explore concepts.

User-Centered Design:
Kay advocates for user-centered design, where technology is tailored to meet the needs and preferences of individuals, rather than imposing a one-size-fits-all approach.

Infinite Potential:
Kay expresses his excitement about the infinite possibilities that lie ahead in the field of interactive media, emphasizing the need for continued exploration and innovation.

McLuhan’s Observation on Tools Shaping Man:
Alan Kay acknowledges McLuhan’s observation that humans shape tools, but the tools, in turn, shape humans, often in ways we are unaware of.

Predicting the Future:
Predicting the future can be challenging, especially for significant changes that are not easily foreseen from the present and immediate past.

Unpredictable Factors Affecting the Future:
The most impactful aspects of the future are often those that are not easily predictable and have the potential to greatly affect us.

Computers’ Role in Advertising and Media:
Computers have evolved from mere word processors to being integral tools for advertising, special effects, and various other creative endeavors.

The Emerging Communications Net:
A vast communications network is being established, which will lead to a situation where we live inside a giant computer, surrounded by power, communication, and information processing capabilities.

Predicting the Future of Computers:
Conventional predictions about the future of technology can be inaccurate. For example, in 1903, someone might have envisioned a house with a single large electric motor powering appliances mechanically, instead of the numerous, invisible motors we have today.

Gordon Bell’s Prediction:
Alan Kay’s friend Gordon Bell, a leading designer at Digital Equipment Corporation, predicted that in 15 years, computers would become “bumps in cables,” seamlessly integrated into the fabric of our lives.

Railroads’ Failed Predictions:
A survey conducted by the railroads 75 years ago accurately predicted that railroads would still exist, run faster, and remain less expensive than airplanes. However, they failed to consider whether they would still be in business, overlooking the importance of value over cost in determining success.

First Age of Computing:
Computers were centralized in large rooms with glass walls, requiring users to submit and pick up jobs.

Second Age of Computing:
The millions of instructions per second previously centralized are now available on a single person’s desk, empowering users to access computing power whenever they want.

Third Age of Computing (Around 1995):
Millions of instructions per person will be portable in devices like pocket computers or embedded in clothing, leading to profound changes in computing.

Transparency:
Connections and networks will become transparent to users, similar to how the telephone system evolved to seamless automatic dialing, eliminating the need for intermediaries.

Interaction:
The way we interact with computers will shift from “remember and type” to “see and point,” and eventually to “ask and tell,” enabling more intuitive and natural communication with machines.

Printing:
Printing will eventually become obsolete as portable devices become capable of storing and manipulating information, making paper-based information obsolete.

Communication:
Direct participation in communication will become possible, reversing the alienating effect of writing and returning to a more interactive form of knowledge sharing.

Programming:
End users will become the primary programmers, democratizing software creation and reducing reliance on professional developers.

Media:
All forms of media can be simulated on computers, leading to the replacement of traditional media with digital representations, except for cases requiring great artistry.

Innovation:

Three main methods of invention:
1. Invention by extending what is already known (incremental innovation).
2. Invention by association (combining existing ideas in new ways).
3. Invention by analogy (transferring ideas from one domain to another).

Brainstorming Approach:
Involves gathering ideas in a single space and combining them to form a product. Examples include boom boxes, which are a combination of undesirable features from a 12-year-old’s room. This approach can lead to saleable products but lacks originality.

Goal-Oriented Approach:
Relies on market research to identify existing needs and develop products to fulfill those needs. Leads to incremental improvements rather than groundbreaking innovations. Market surveys often reveal people’s desire for marginal enhancements to existing products.

Creating a Need Only a Product Can Fill:
The most successful inventions create a new need that only they can satisfy. Examples include the Xerox machine, the telephone, and the personal computer. This approach involves envisioning a product that offers a unique solution to a problem people may not even realize they have.

Market Research Limitations:
Market research often fails to uncover truly innovative ideas. People tend to desire incremental improvements over radical departures from the norm. Japanese companies excel in innovation because they focus on testing products they’ve developed internally rather than relying solely on market research.

Convenience Over Formality:
The telephone’s success over the telegraph illustrates the importance of convenience over formality. The telegraph produced a written record of transactions, but the telephone’s ease of use and naturalness made it more appealing. This principle applies to predicting the future, as technology will likely prioritize user-friendliness and convenience.

Four Rules of Thumb for Predicting the Future:

1. Invent the Future:
Don’t try to predict what others will do; instead, create a vision and use technology to realize it.

2. Pay Attention to Emerging Technologies:
Keep an eye on research labs to see what technologies are being developed; this will give insights into the near future.

3. Consider Different Contexts:
Changing the context can make something seemingly impossible become feasible; small changes can lead to explosive changes.

4. Create Needs That Only Your Product Can Fulfill:
Find a way to create something that creates a need that only your product can satisfy; this will ensure success.

Anecdotes and Examples:
Desktop publishing became a multi-billion dollar business due to a change in context and user interface. The shift from Roman numerals to Arabic notation greatly simplified multiplication. Xerox’s invention of the first practical plain paper copier, the 914, which IBM rejected, eventually made Xerox a multi-billion dollar company.

IBM’s Failure to Recognize the Potential of Plain Paper Copying:
IBM’s consulting firm, Arthur D. Little, conducted a study that concluded there was no market for plain paper copying due to low copy volume and high costs compared to existing methods. IBM rejected the Haloid Corporation’s proposal for plain paper copying, leading Haloid to raise funds and establish their own factory.

Amplifying Human Traits through Technology:
Technology can act as an amplifier for fundamental human traits, creating a need that only it can fulfill. Examples include the airplane, personal computers, and pocket calculators.

Fantasy Amplifiers and Human Extension:
Fantasy amplifiers are technologies that extend human capabilities beyond physical manipulation. Fantasy includes simulation, science, and the creation of models to understand the world.

Two Ways of Human Extension:
Amplifying tools: physical or non-physical tools that enhance manipulation and control. Goal cloning: the creation of societies, groups, and organizations with shared goals.

Management and Manipulation as Key Concepts:
Management is the art of convincing others to adopt one’s goal structure, enabling collective action. Manipulation is the use of tools and techniques to achieve desired outcomes.

Further Exploration:
Two experiments are proposed to gain insights into the human mind and its relationship with technology.

Common Misperception of Thumb Size:
When comparing the sizes of two thumbs held at different distances, most people estimate the further thumb to be around 80% the size of the closer thumb. However, on the retina, the image of the further thumb is exactly half the size of the closer thumb. This discrepancy highlights that our perception is not a direct representation of what our eyes see but rather a dynamic reconstruction influenced by our beliefs.

Perception of an Upside-Down Face:
A slide is shown with a young girl’s eyes and mouth flipped upside down, and the entire picture inverted. An English sentence describing the manipulation is given, but when the slide is flipped right-side up, the face appears normal. This demonstrates the different reactions to information conveyed through language (English sentence) and visual imagery (upside-down face).

Physiological Explanation:
In the brain, face recognition occurs in two separate regions: one specialized in recognizing face-like shapes and the other in identifying eyes and mouths. In the case of the upside-down face, the face recognition region reports an upside-down face, while the eyes and mouth region reports normal features. The absence of conflict between these reports allows the brain to perceive the face as normal.

Startle Response to an Upright, Distorted Face:
When the face is flipped right-side up, the face recognition region reports a normal face, while the eyes and mouth region detects something amiss. This dissonance triggers a startle response, which is an innate reaction to potential danger. This response is evolutionarily advantageous as it alerts individuals to potential threats.

Experimentation with Dogs:
The experiment can be conducted with a small dog, demonstrating that the startle response to an upright, distorted face is not a learned response but rather an innate one.

Computer as a World:
Alan Kay presents the idea of computers as worlds rather than mere boxes. He emphasizes the need for user interfaces that facilitate seamless entry into these virtual environments.

Multiple Mentalities:
Kay discusses the concept of multiple mentalities within the human psyche. He suggests that the brain is fragmented into patchwork-like segments, leading to shifts between mental states.

Impact of User Interfaces:
Kay highlights the profound impact of user interface design on human capabilities. He cites the example of a 22-month-old girl who effortlessly navigated a Macintosh interface, demonstrating the power of intuitive interfaces.

Intelligent Agents and Goal Cloning:
Kay introduces the concept of intelligent agents, entities that assist humans in managing information and tasks. He compares these agents to pets like puppies, capable of performing simple tasks reliably.

Fusion of Media and User Interfaces:
Kay showcases a HyperCard stack created for the 1988 Winter Olympics, demonstrating the integration of multimedia and interactive navigation. He envisions the future of user interfaces, where intelligent agents and seamless information access become a reality.

Exploration of Concepts:
Kay demonstrates the use of a physics simulation within the HyperCard stack, allowing users to explore concepts like skater’s spin and distance traveled. He emphasizes the importance of creating links between concepts and information, enabling users to navigate and learn effortlessly.

The Future of Computers:
Kay concludes by presenting computers not as mere tools but as immersive worlds filled with potential. He envisions a future where user interfaces allow seamless interaction with these worlds, transforming the way humans access and utilize information.

Real-Time, Immersive Virtual Reality:
Virtual reality systems can offer extensive immersion, enabling users to see and interact with simulated environments through head-mounted displays and specialized gloves.

Manipulation and Interaction:
Virtual reality allows users to physically interact with objects in the digital realm, such as opening drawers or manipulating objects, creating a more immersive and engaging experience.

Gesture Recognition:
Systems can recognize specific gestures, enabling users to navigate and control virtual environments through intuitive hand movements.

Dynamic 3D Graphics:
3D graphics engines that operate in real time allow for instant visual feedback, making the virtual experience more immediate and immersive.

Flight Simulator Example:
High-end flight simulators create vast and detailed virtual worlds that respond to pilot input instantaneously, offering a realistic and immersive flying experience.

Massive Databases and Scene Detail:
The databases used in these systems can be extensive, covering hundreds or even thousands of miles, with intricate details like individual leaves on trees.

Complex Lighting and Shadows:
Real-time 3D graphics engines can simulate complex lighting and shadows, including the effects of multiple light sources and realistic shadow casting.

Graphics Revolution on the Horizon:
Alan Kay predicts the arrival of dynamic graphics on personal computers within the next five to seven years. This advancement will have a transformative impact, akin to desktop publishing, making it easier to create special effects in real time.

Viverium: A Simulated World:
Kay introduces Viverium, an educational project at Apple, which uses powerful computing resources to create a simulated world for animals. The animals in this simulated world exhibit autonomous behavior based on their programmed mentalities.

Decorator Crab Simulation:
Kay demonstrates a two-minute simulation of a decorator crab, showcasing the ability to render 60 full frames per second. The simulation highlights the self-motivated behavior of the animals, which interact with each other and their environment realistically.

Sea Anemones and Venomous Spines:
Kay explains the symbiotic relationship between decorator crabs and sea anemones, with the crabs stealing venomous spines from the anemones for defense.

The Changing Context of Computing:
Kay emphasizes the need to adapt to the changing landscape of computing technology. He believes that things that seem impossible today will become feasible in the near future.

The Computer as a World, Not a Box:
Kay envisions the computer not as a physical device but as a world that we can enter and interact with. He highlights the importance of simulation and connection in harnessing the power of computing technology.

The Transcendent Power of the Human Mind:
Kay concludes by emphasizing the human mind’s ability to simulate and connect as the key to unlocking the potential of computing technology.