Introduction of Elon Musk:

The International Astronautical Federation President introduces Elon Musk, the founder, CEO, and lead designer of SpaceX. Musk founded SpaceX in 2002 with an ambitious goal: to revolutionize space technology and enable human life to extend to multiple planets. The forum aims to provide an update on plans first shared in the previous year.

SpaceX’s Achievements:

The introductory remarks also highlight SpaceX’s significant milestones. SpaceX is recognized for several “firsts”: it’s the first private company to deliver cargo to the International Space Station, the first to land an orbital-class booster back on land and sea, and the first to refly an orbital-class booster.

The Importance of Space Exploration:

Elon Musk outlines the primary reason for his vision—making human civilization multi-planetary makes the future “vastly more exciting and interesting.” According to Musk, this isn’t just about technological advancement but about inspiring optimism for the future. He argues that being a space-faring civilization is about believing that the future will be better than the past.

Motivation for Space-faring Civilization:

Musk emphasizes that the essence of becoming a multi-planet species is about inspiration. The driving factor behind this vision is to wake up inspired, to believe in a future that is brighter and more exciting than what we have today. For him, nothing could be more exciting than human life thriving among the stars.

Updated Design and Funding:

Elon Musk discusses an updated design for SpaceX’s rocket, tentatively named BFR (Big Falcon Rocket). He emphasizes that figuring out how to finance the mission is a significant milestone. Unlike previous attempts at crowd-funding, they now plan to make the project financially viable by using a more versatile yet smaller vehicle, which can conduct multiple types of missions within Earth’s orbit.

Streamlining Resources:

SpaceX aims to make its current vehicles, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Dragon, redundant. The company plans to consolidate all resources into the new system, effectively optimizing costs and focusing on the goal of multi-planetary colonization.

Technological Advances:

Musk discusses significant technological improvements, like advanced carbon fiber tanks that hold 1,200 tons of liquid oxygen and a new engine design, the Raptor, which aims for highest thrust-to-weight ratio. Both advancements are crucial for the mission’s success.

Propulsive Landing:

Landing precision and reliability are vital for colonization efforts. Using Falcon 9, SpaceX has successfully conducted 16 propulsive landings. Musk is confident that the new BFR will improve landing reliability to match commercial airliners. He also notes the new design might not need landing legs, as it could land back on its launch mounts due to improved precision.

Exponential Launch Rate:

Elon Musk explains that for establishing a self-sustaining base, many ships and re-tanking operations will be needed, resulting in a high launch rate. Despite SpaceX aiming for an ambitious 30 launches next year, it’s just a fraction of what will ultimately be required.

Automated Rendezvous and Heat Shield:

Automated rendezvous and docking, along with advanced heat shield technology, are identified as key technological aspects. These have been perfected through the Dragon missions and are vital for multi-planetary operations.

Comparison with Existing Launches:

Musk provides context by mentioning that there are about 60 orbital launches worldwide each year. If SpaceX accomplishes 30 launches next year, it will account for approximately half of all orbital launches globally.

Overall, the talk outlines significant strides SpaceX has made toward becoming a multi-planet species, detailing technological innovations, funding plans, and future milestones.

Early Struggles and Falcon 1:

Elon Musk began by discussing the early days of SpaceX and its first rocket, Falcon 1. Contrary to popular belief, SpaceX started with a small team lacking rocket-building expertise. Musk became the chief engineer by default, not out of desire. The first three launches of Falcon 1 failed, putting the company’s existence at risk. However, the fourth launch succeeded, marking a turning point.

Transition to Falcon 9:

Falcon 9 represents a significant leap from Falcon 1, capable of carrying around 30 times more payload. Musk elaborated on the reusability features of Falcon 9, stating that they aim for 70-80% reusability. The primary booster, which is the most expensive part, is designed to be reused, as is the rocket’s fairing.

Falcon Heavy Challenges:

The Falcon Heavy, while seemingly an extension of Falcon 9, required almost a complete redesign due to increased load factors. Contrary to expectations, it ended up being a new vehicle in many aspects. Musk also revealed that the boosters for Falcon Heavy had been tested and were on their way to Cape Canaveral for launch.

Future with BFR:

Musk concluded by introducing the Big Falcon Rocket (BFR), with a payload capability of 150 tons to low Earth orbit, far surpassing Falcon Heavy’s 30 tons. BFR’s scale is substantial, featuring 31 Raptor engines and standing 48 meters in length. The vehicle is expected to lift off with a thrust of 5,400 tons, opening up new possibilities in space travel and making it more cost-effective.

Significance of the Date:

Interestingly, the presentation took place on the ninth anniversary of Falcon 1’s successful fourth launch, adding emotional weight to Musk’s recounting of SpaceX’s journey.

Design and Mass Specifications:

Elon Musk details the dry mass of the new BFR (Big Falcon Rocket) spacecraft, which is expected to be around 85 tons. While the design aims for 75 tons, mass inevitably grows. The spacecraft will carry 1,100 tons of propellant and has a descent design of 150 tons and a return mass of 50 tons.

Structure and Layout:

The spacecraft is designed to combine features of the Falcon 9’s upper stage and the Dragon spacecraft. It has an engine section in the rear, propellant tanks in the middle, and a large payload bay at the front that is eight stories tall. The payload bay can fit a stack of Falcon 1 rockets.

Delta Wing:

A new addition to the design is a small delta wing at the back. This wing enables the spacecraft to balance itself during descent, accounting for different payloads and atmospheric densities. It makes the BFR versatile enough to land anywhere in the solar system.

Cargo and Passenger Capabilities:

The cargo area has a pressurized volume of 825 cubic meters, greater than that of an Airbus A380. In Mars transit, the BFR would have 40 cabins that can accommodate 2-3 people each, allowing for about 100 people per flight.

Propellant Details:

The spacecraft uses sub-cooled methane and oxygen as propellant, leading to a 10-12% density increase. The total propellant consists of 240 tons of CH4 (methane) and 860 tons of O2 (oxygen).

Engine Specifications:

The engine section consists of six engines, all capable of gimballing. There are backup systems in place to ensure that landing risk is close to zero. The engines have room for potential improvements in terms of specific impulse and chamber pressure.

Refueling Mechanism:

The BFR employs a simple yet effective method for transferring propellant in space. It reuses the mating interface and propellant fill lines used during liftoff with the booster.

Rocket Capability and Reusability:

The BFR has more payload capability than the Saturn V rocket, even with full reusability. Musk emphasizes the importance of reusability, drawing parallels with aircraft. He argues that expendable rockets are as impractical as expendable airplanes. Making the BFR reusable will dramatically reduce the costs, revolutionizing space travel.

Orbital Refilling:

Elon Musk discusses the critical importance of orbital refilling for space missions. Without refilling, a BFR (Big Falcon Rocket) can carry 150 tons to low Earth orbit but would have no fuel for further travel. However, by sending tankers for in-orbit refilling, the BFR could potentially go to Mars with the same payload. The cost is minimal due to the reusability of the tanker and the low costs of oxygen and methane used as propellants.

Funding and Resource Allocation:

Musk addresses the economic aspect of developing these advanced systems. He suggests that by making their older Falcon 9 and Dragon models redundant and focusing all resources on the BFR, costs could be managed. Customers hesitant to use the new technology could still opt for the older, stockpiled models. Revenue from satellite launches and servicing the space station would financially support this transition.

Capability and Versatility of BFR:

Musk elaborates on the wide-ranging capabilities of the BFR, from servicing the space station to moon landings. The vehicle’s nine-meter diameter enables the launch of larger satellites or more satellites at once. It could even help in collecting space debris. Musk argues that it could perform lunar surface missions without local propellant production on the moon, opening up possibilities for establishing a lunar base.

Mars and Beyond:

Musk emphasizes the need for humanity to become a multi-planet species. With orbital refilling, a BFR could travel to Mars, where local propellant could be produced using Mars’ CO2 atmosphere and water ice through the Sabatier process. This method could even be replicated on Earth in the long term.

Applications Beyond Space Travel:

Though the focus is on space travel, the technology also has terrestrial applications. Musk mentions the potential for the Sabatier process to be used on Earth, providing a future-oriented perspective beyond space missions.

Musk’s discussion blends technical details with broader visions, emphasizing the revolutionary potential of orbital refilling and the BFR in altering the economics and capabilities of space exploration.

Electric Rockets and Combustion:

Elon Musk addresses criticism about using combustion in rockets while advocating for electric cars. He clarifies that electric rockets are not feasible with current technology. However, he suggests a long-term solution of using solar power to extract CO2 from the atmosphere and combine it with water to create fuel and oxygen for rockets. This process mirrors what would be done on Mars and could eventually be employed on Earth.

Mars Propellant Depot:

On Mars, Musk states that a propellant depot would be needed to refill the rocket’s tanks for the return journey to Earth. Due to Mars’ lower gravity, the rocket does not require a booster for the return trip. The payload for the return would need to be limited to between 20 and 50 tons. The spacecraft can make a single-stage journey back to Earth.

Mars Entry and Heat Shield:

Musk describes the conditions upon entry into Mars’ atmosphere, stating that the spacecraft would enter at speeds of 7.5 km/s. The heat shield would experience some wear due to the high-speed entry but is designed to be multi-use. Mars’ atmosphere, while thin, allows for the removal of almost all the energy aerodynamically.

Proven Technologies and Simulations:

Musk notes that supersonic retropropulsion has been proven many times with Falcon 9, offering confidence in this technology for Mars entry. He mentions that the mesh system in their physics simulation provides a rough approximation for the amount of thrust the engines produce.

Elon Musk’s segment addresses the challenges and future prospects of space exploration, emphasizing the advancements in propulsion technology and their applications for Mars missions.

Construction Timeline:

Elon Musk announces that the system for the Mars mission is already under construction. Tooling for the main tanks has been ordered and the facility is being built. He expects the construction of the first ship to commence in the second quarter of the next year, with the goal of being launch-ready in about five years.

Resource Allocation and Goals:

Musk is confident that the resource allocation planned will be sufficient to meet the timeline. The aim is to meet the 2022 Mars rendezvous since Earth-Mars synchronization for favorable flights happens roughly every two years. By 2024, the plan is to fly four ships to Mars: two cargo and two crewed.

Mission Objectives:

The initial missions have specific goals. The first mission will focus on locating the best source of water on Mars. The second mission aims to build a propellant plant on the planet. With six ships landed, there should be enough mass to construct the depot, involving solar panels and equipment to mine and refine water, and create and store cryogenic CH4 and O2.

Long-Term Vision:

The long-term vision includes building up a base with one ship, scaling up to multiple ships, and eventually constructing a city. Musk even discusses the ambitious idea of terraforming Mars to make it habitable.

Unique Martian Phenomena:

Musk adds a note of interest about the Martian atmosphere. Unlike Earth, where the sky is red during dawn and dusk, on Mars, the sky is blue during these times and red during the day.

Elon Musk’s segment outlines both the practical steps and the ambitious goals for Mars colonization, from construction timelines to terraforming the Red Planet.

Earthly Applications:

Elon Musk presents an intriguing idea: if they are building a ship capable of traveling to Mars, the same technology could be used for Earth-to-Earth travel. He implies that the Martian ships could have an alternative application in revolutionizing how we move between distant locations on Earth.

Speed and Efficiency:

Musk reveals the surprising speed at which these Martian ships could travel when applied to Earth: 27,000 kilometers an hour or roughly 18,000 miles an hour. At this speed, what is commonly considered a long-distance trip could be completed in less than half an hour.

Advantages of Space Travel:

The absence of friction and atmospheric turbulence in space provides a unique advantage for this concept. Once the ship is out of Earth’s atmosphere, travel would be ‘smooth as silk,’ with no weather or turbulence to affect the journey.

Expanding the Scope:

Musk posits that if the technology is being developed to go to celestial bodies like the moon and Mars, it makes sense to consider its application for terrestrial travel.

Elon Musk’s presentation suggests that Martian travel technology could have far-reaching implications, even changing how we conceive of Earth-to-Earth travel, making it faster and potentially more efficient.