Importance of International Order for Singapore:

Lee Kuan Yew starts by emphasizing how Singapore’s survival and prosperity are intertwined with global stability and peace, particularly within its region. Singapore thrives when there is an absence of conflict and an atmosphere conducive to economic growth.

The Role of the United States:

The U.S. has played a crucial role in maintaining regional stability, enabling Asian countries like Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore to flourish. This peace allowed for economic growth that later impacted other nations.

China’s Learning Curve:

Lee narrates the visit of Deng Xiaoping to several cities in Southeast Asia in 1978. Deng was notably surprised to find these cities in a better state than Beijing or Shanghai. This visit, along with Singapore’s trade-focused and multinational economic model, influenced Deng to open up China to the world. Deng then implemented policies allowing private land ownership and started to encourage exports.

China’s Evolution and Approach to Global Diplomacy:

Lee notes that China’s current generation has learned from its past experiences, such as the Great Leap Forward and various international conflicts. Consequently, China is avoiding conflicts and adopting a cooperative approach to improve its global standing. However, Lee hints at the possibility that future generations may adopt a different stance.

India’s Economic Transition:

India, initially resistant to economic liberalization, had a change of heart and decided to open up its markets. Lee attributes this change to a realization among Indian leaders that they would be left behind if they did not adapt.

The Future World Order:

In Lee’s view, global stability can be maintained through a balance of powers involving the U.S., the EU, China, India, Brazil, and Russia. These nations will need to make gradual adjustments as they grow.

China’s and India’s Global Educational Footprint:

Both China and India have sent large numbers of students abroad for education. This, according to Lee, is a modern Meiji Revolution for these countries, as they bring back knowledge, technology, and international connections.

Lee’s overall perspective presents a complex interplay of geopolitics, economics, and generational learning that dictates how nations interact on a global stage. He underscores the importance of understanding and adapting to these dynamics for long-term prosperity.

Role of International Order:

Lee Kuan Yew emphasizes the importance of international order, peace, and stability for the prosperity of nations like Singapore. A disturbance in this stability could spell catastrophe for smaller countries.

China’s Development Path:

Lee discusses China’s transformation, particularly after Deng Xiaoping’s visit to Southeast Asian countries like Singapore. The trip influenced China to adopt an open-door policy, capitalizing on global capitalism and trade.

India’s Economic Shift:

India too has pivoted towards economic liberalization, albeit slowly. Lee observes that the country seems to have realized the necessity of this shift to avoid being left behind in the global race.

Worst-Case Scenario:

He points out that if China were to abandon its course due to a global crisis or protectionism, the implications for peace and stability would be unpredictable. This suggests the interdependence of international stability on the actions of global powers like China.

Chinese Self-Awareness:

China seems to understand the risks of challenging the global order. Lee refers to a television series China produced that studied the rise and fall of great powers. The underlying message was that nations that have challenged the international order historically faced dire consequences.

Future of Peace and Stability:

Lee ends by suggesting that if China and India maintain their present courses, Asia can expect several decades of peace and growth. But he cautions that this peace is fragile and susceptible to changes in the strategies of these nations.

Playing by the Rules:

Lee Kuan Yew indicates that he doesn’t foresee countries like China challenging the global order. They will instead “play within the rules,” focusing on trade and development. This aligns with his earlier view that peace is likely as long as major powers are committed to the existing international system.

Potential for Regional Rivalries:

Lee suggests that any deviation from these norms, such as attempting to form an East Asian bloc, could lead to regional rivalries and a destabilized world order.

European Union and Russia:

He criticizes the European Union’s lack of a unified approach towards Russia, particularly concerning energy pipelines, which could potentially divide the union and weaken its global standing.

Chinese Stance on International Issues:

Lee points out that China has been cautious in its international dealings, choosing not to recognize Kosovo and maintaining a “non-combative position.” He implies that this strategy keeps the current global order stable as long as China sees benefits in doing so.

Risk of ‘Finlandization’:

Addressing a question about smaller countries potentially bending to the will of major powers like China, Lee acknowledges that this is already happening. He cites how information from ASEAN meetings quickly reaches Chinese embassies in Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia, indicating a subtle influence.

Strategic Information Gathering:

Lee adds that China is very well-informed about the stances of ASEAN members. This implies that smaller nations are increasingly factoring in China’s position in their decision-making, reinforcing China’s influence in the region without overt coercion.

China’s Exercise of Soft Power:

Lee Kuan Yew discusses how China deploys soft power, notably at an ASEAN summit held in the transformed Guangxi province. The country showcased the culture, dances, and songs of each ASEAN member state. He describes this approach as rooted in traditional Chinese ways of diplomacy.

Perception of China’s Rise:

Lee recounts conversations with other leaders who returned from the summit with a sense that China’s rise is “unstoppable.” He describes China as an old power that is reviving, rather than a new power, indicating that China’s potential is immense and that “only they can stop themselves.”

Intellectual and Manpower Capabilities:

Lee underlines China’s scientific achievements, such as sending an astronaut into space without external assistance. He details the rigorous selection process for the astronaut, emphasizing China’s extensive human and intellectual resources.

Global Cultural Outreach:

Lee mentions China’s new endeavors in sports like cricket, trained by Australian and Indian experts, as another avenue of soft power. This shows that China is expanding its global cultural presence in varied ways.

Delicate Diplomacy:

Referencing Singapore’s diplomatic experience, Lee highlights China’s assertive but non-military stance when its “core interests” are involved. He notes how a potential free trade area with China was held back due to a diplomatic visit to Taiwan, a sensitive issue for China.

Global Order Preference:

Lee ends by stating his preference for maintaining the current world order, one that he is familiar with and finds stable. This seems to be a nod to the understanding that as China rises, it is essential to engage with this emerging power while recognizing its influence.