Introduction:

The primary speaker in the transcript is Lee Kuan Yew, the founder of modern Singapore. The context is an interview in which a wide array of subjects are discussed, from the global balance of power to the Arab Spring. Lee Kuan Yew is presented as a man of great insight and wisdom, without regrets for the methods he used to build Singapore into a prosperous nation.

Arab Spring’s Different Landscapes:

Lee Kuan Yew makes an important distinction regarding the Arab states. He divides them into two categories: those that have evolved into nations (Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt) and those that remain tribal (e.g., Libya). In his view, states that have formed cohesive nations are better poised for leadership changes without descending into tribalism.

Democracy and Its Challenges:

He expresses skepticism about the emergence of democracy in these states, primarily because of the absence of a history of vote-counting. This suggests that the governance structures in these states are not conducive to adopting democratic systems immediately.

The Muslim Brotherhood’s Role:

When asked about the potential of organizations like the Muslim Brotherhood hijacking the democratic process, Lee Kuan Yew points out that while such groups may be well-organized, they do not represent the majority view. Specifically, he believes that the Egyptian population is not in favor of a severe Muslim state.

Overall Insights:

Lee Kuan Yew highlights the complexities and nuances of the Arab Spring, particularly the divergence between tribal states and cohesive nations. He also shares his reservations about the immediate establishment of democracy and questions the popular notion that groups like the Muslim Brotherhood could easily hijack the process.

Islamic Radicalism:

Lee Kuan Yew believes that radical Islamic elements in other states may be encouraged by events but notes that people generally don’t see fundamentalist Islam as a solution to modern-world problems like economic growth and jobs.

Libya and Qaddafi:

Lee Kuan Yew emphasizes that letting Qaddafi stay in power would lead to a divided Libya and constant conflict. The challenge lies in dealing with Qaddafi as a war criminal; he can’t simply step down without facing international consequences.

U.S. Policy Dilemma:

The speaker outlines the different contexts in which the United States engages with countries like Libya, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. He classifies them into different categories: Libya as a tribal society, Saudi Arabia as feudal, and Bahrain as a sectarian society with a Sunni minority ruling a Shia majority.

World Expectations of U.S.:

Lee says the world still expects leadership from the U.S., primarily due to its economic capabilities and international interests, which China lacks. However, he notes that China aims to become the world’s greatest power, although this may take over a decade.

U.S.-China Relations:

He believes that the U.S. and China will engage in a “subdued struggle” for influence rather than a direct conflict. This is because China depends on U.S. markets, technology, and educational systems to advance.

Chinese Leadership:

Lee offers insights into the character of Chinese leadership, noting the significant differences between leaders like Deng Xiaoping and Hu Jintao. He also speaks highly of Wang Qishan, calling him practical, hard-headed, and humorous.

State vs. Private Capitalism:

Lee is a strong advocate for private capitalism, stating it is far more effective than state capitalism. He notes that Singapore initially relied on state capitalism but has been transitioning to private capitalism.

Asian Countries and China:

He observes that countries like South Korea and Malaysia are strategically aligning themselves with China for economic gains. For instance, South Korea is sending a large student population to China to understand the Chinese psyche and language.

Education and Economic Strategy:

Interestingly, while South Korean students are heading to China, Chinese students are being sent to America, emphasizing different strategic educational choices made by countries to position themselves globally.

Lee Kuan Yew’s perspectives offer a comprehensive overview of current geopolitical intricacies, especially focusing on the dynamics between different forms of governance and their global impact.

China’s Influence on Asian Countries:

Lee Kuan Yew discusses the complex relationships between China and other Asian countries. For instance, Indonesia relies on its Chinese population to connect with China, while Vietnam maintains a cautious distance due to historical non-friendliness. The Vietnamese fear that a free trade agreement with China would devastate local industries like motorbikes because Chinese products would be cheaper and better.

General Wary Attitude:

Countries in the Asian region are generally wary of China, rather than scared. There is concern that taking actions against China’s core interests could result in retribution, such as shutting off markets or cutting off business ties.

China’s Economic Influence:

China’s growing middle class creates a consumer market that is attractive to all, including the U.S. and India. However, countries like India are hesitant to enter free trade agreements with China, fearing an influx of competitive Chinese products.

U.S. Strategy in Asia:

According to Lee, the United States should focus on making friends with all countries in Asia and refrain from taking sides. He sees Secretary Clinton’s speech in Hanoi about abiding by the law of the sea as setting boundaries but also as a message to China.

Chinese Internal and External Strategy:

China faces internal issues such as income disparity and focuses on maintaining internal stability. The Chinese approach to international relationships is pragmatic. They are not evangelistic about their system and will deal with countries as they are to secure resources.

Chinese Technological Development:

While China hasn’t produced global tech companies like Google, Lee attributes this partly to the education system and partly to the tight control at the top. China prefers to borrow and adapt existing technologies rather than risk chaos through excessive innovation.

American Evangelism:

Lee notes that the U.S. has a ‘missionary zeal’ to spread its values, contrasting this with China’s more pragmatic approach to international relations.

Strategic Implications:

Lee suggests that conflict between the U.S. and China would not resolve underlying tensions, emphasizing the importance of trimming China’s aggressive tendencies without resorting to conflict.

This segment offers a nuanced look into the dynamics between Asian countries and the delicate balance of power and influence, especially concerning China’s role.

Concerns for Young Singaporeans:

Lee Kuan Yew, the primary speaker, voiced his concern about the younger generation of Singaporeans, fearing they may think the country can go on “autopilot.” He stressed that Singapore has a narrow base—both geographically and metaphorically. Because of this, there is little room for error, and any miscalculations could lead to the collapse of what has been built.

Necessity of a Strong Base:

Lee Kuan Yew emphasized the importance of a strong foundational base for the nation. According to him, Singapore’s small size (around 700 square kilometers) makes it vulnerable, likening it to a tall building with a narrow base. Maintaining stability is critical; otherwise, the “edifice” could crumble.

Price for Prosperity:

When asked about the balance between prosperity and security, Lee Kuan Yew mentioned that Singapore has always had to grapple with this question. He outlined that the focus has been on ensuring stability at various levels: racial, religious, and socio-economic.

Social Harmony:

To avoid racial and social divisions, Lee detailed how Singapore has mixed-income neighborhoods and no ghettos. Public housing blocks have quotas reflecting the racial composition of the country, aiming to foster interaction and understanding among different racial groups. This, he said, has been crucial to achieving a level playing field for everyone, especially in education, health, and housing.

Origins of Political Ideals:

Lee traced the origins of his political ideas to observing the aftermath of riots and societal fractures, particularly those before 1965. His ideals were formed even before Singapore separated from Malaysia, and he hoped that a similar approach could be applied to Malaysia, although that did not come to fruition.

Importance of Cohesion:

Lee stressed that social cohesion among various ethnic groups is crucial for progress. He argued that a nation continually in internal conflict will struggle to progress. He has made multiple speeches promoting social cohesion and warns that increased political discourse among the young might risk delving into racial politics.

This summary captures the essence of Lee Kuan Yew’s concerns for Singapore’s future and his emphasis on social cohesion as a cornerstone for stability and growth.

Sensitivity to Social Issues:

Lee Kuan Yew asserts that discourse surrounding race, language, and religion must be handled cautiously. He shares an example from his own experience where his comments about Malays and Muslims eating together with others caused controversy, even differing with the opinion of his son, the Prime Minister. Lee stresses the sensitivity of these topics and the importance of not stirring up “a hornet’s nest.”

Family Background and Political Aspirations:

When asked about his background and early ambitions, Lee Kuan Yew mentions that his family was not poor and that he went to Cambridge for law school. His decision to go into politics was driven by a belief that the British should not be the ones governing Singapore. Lee felt that locals could do a better job governing because they understood the people better.

Outperforming Colonial Rule:

Lee Kuan Yew believes that Singapore has performed better under its governance than it ever did under British rule. He attributes this success to the integration of different communities, contrasting this with the segregated living conditions enforced by the British. According to Lee, the British segregation was designed to prevent riots among disparate groups during the 19th century.

Fragile Social Cohesion:

Lee emphasizes that the unity and understanding among different communities in Singapore are fragile. He says it’s “not in the DNA yet,” but rather enforced by shared living conditions and everyday interactions. This involves attending the same schools, visiting the same shopping centers, and being neighbors. He believes these intermingling activities are crucial for creating a unified society.

Importance of Everyday Intermingling:

Lee underscores that Singapore’s unity is not a given but a work in progress. The cohesive society is maintained through day-to-day activities and shared public spaces that force intermingling among different racial and ethnic groups. He holds that such integration is essential, even if it is somewhat enforced, to create a more unified society in the long run.

The summary highlights Lee Kuan Yew’s views on the delicate nature of social cohesion in Singapore, his political motivations rooted in anti-colonial sentiments, and the constant effort required to maintain unity among diverse communities.

Marriage and Political Partnership:

Lee Kuan Yew confirms that his late wife was more than just a spouse; she was a political partner who helped him with his speeches. He described himself as a “kept man,” as his wife earned more as a lawyer than he did in his early political career.

Emotional Moments and Ideals:

Lee recounts a moment in 1965 when he was emotionally overwhelmed on television. The cause of his emotional breakdown was the shattering of his ideal of establishing a non-racial society in Malaysia and Singapore. He was pained by having to leave the mobilized communities in Malaysia leaderless after political developments forced them out.

Realities of Governance:

Lee was questioned about human rights criticism concerning limitations on political freedom and using libel as intimidation. Lee contends that using the legal system for libel cases is a fair alternative to politically “knocking down” his opponents. He invites scrutiny and challenges through the court system rather than suppressing free speech.

Reflections on Policy Decisions:

Looking back, Lee says there are actions he might have done differently, citing the rapid pace at which he tried to change languages in Singapore as one such example. He enforced English as the working language to foster unity and enhance global competitiveness, but he reflects that maybe the pace was too fast.

Language Policy and Singlish:

Lee discusses the complexities Singapore faced due to its multilingual populace speaking various dialects and languages. He remains opposed to the colloquial form of English known as “Singlish,” arguing that a standard form of English is essential for global communication. He emphasizes the importance of English as the working language while maintaining other languages as secondary.

The summary encapsulates Lee Kuan Yew’s views on the interplay of personal relationships in politics, the emotional toll of unmet ideals, the justifications for his governance style, and the complexities of implementing language policies in a multicultural society.

Declining Birth Rates:

Lee Kuan Yew addresses the declining birth rate in Singapore by stating that it is a result of lifestyle changes, particularly among educated women. He believes that women’s focus on career and independence leads them to delay marriage and childbearing, causing a drop in birth rates.

Population and Migration:

Lee expresses concern about the composition of Singapore’s population, emphasizing the need to limit migrants to less than 50% of the total population. He suggests that immigration should be restricted to high-quality individuals with tertiary education to maintain the cultural fabric of the nation.

Social Attitudes:

Lee dispels the notion that prosperity has made Singaporeans soft; rather, he sees them as hardworking but increasingly self-centered. He is concerned that people are taking their current standard of living for granted and warns against complacency, stressing that maintaining prosperity is not an autopilot task.

Sustainability and Leadership:

He emphasizes the need for continued vigilance in leadership and among the populace to sustain Singapore’s prosperity. Lee warns that taking liberties with the “small base” of Singapore’s success could lead to a quick downward spiral affecting standards of living and confidence, which are crucial for attracting investments.

Democracy and Free Speech:

Lee believes that an American-style democracy is not suitable for Singapore. He points out that certain subjects, such as religion, race, and culture, are sensitive and discussing them irresponsibly could lead to civil unrest. Thus, there are “no-go areas” that are off-limits to maintain prosperity and security.

Experience and Legacy:

At 88, Lee feels that his experience is his most valuable asset. He doesn’t consider himself as an advice-giver but more as someone with whom ideas can be tested. His primary focus is on ensuring Singapore continues to command confidence, thereby attracting investment and talent.

American Politics and Economics:

When asked about America’s economic challenges, Lee expresses concern that American leaders think they can solve problems without inflicting pain on the population. He argues that difficult decisions involving cuts in entitlements and defense spending must be made to resolve deficits and debts.

Global Indebtedness:

Lee touches on the unique nature of America’s indebtedness, pointing out that unlike other countries that borrow in foreign currencies, America borrows in its own currency. This, he indicates, adds a different dimension to the problem of national debt.

The interview sheds light on Lee Kuan Yew’s complex perspectives on governance, demographic challenges, and the factors contributing to Singapore’s success. It also offers a sobering look at the global challenges that even prosperous nations face.

U.S. Debt and Inflation:

Lee Kuan Yew pointed out that the U.S. is in a unique position concerning its national debt. Unlike other countries that borrow in foreign currencies, the U.S. borrows in its own currency, reducing pressure to repay but increasing the risk of inflation. This topic is linked with China’s large stake in U.S. debt, as both nations are mutually dependent economically.

U.S.-China Relations:

Lee Kuan Yew believed that while the U.S. and China could find some common ground on global issues like climate change, full cooperation would be difficult. China faces a dilemma: it needs to address climate change for its own survival but also requires significant energy to maintain economic growth. This energy currently comes primarily from coal-powered stations, contributing to climate change.

Mortality and Legacy:

At the age of 88, Lee Kuan Yew reflected on his life, contemplating whether he had made a significant positive impact on the world and his family. He rated his own life’s work as a “B plus” and highlighted the importance of not judging a person’s life until it is over, to account for potential late-life mistakes.

International Concerns and Strategic Thinking:

Lee expressed concern about the inability of American leaders to confront the reality of their economic situation, including the necessity of making spending cuts. He also emphasized his role as a sounding board for strategic ideas rather than an oracle of advice, attributing his wisdom to his years of experience and understanding of past mistakes.

Domestic Challenges:

Lee also touched upon the challenges Singapore faces, such as declining birth rates and a rising immigrant population. He emphasized the need for vigilance and dynamic leadership to navigate these challenges successfully, cautioning against taking the nation’s stability and prosperity for granted.