Speaker Introductions:
Stephen Hawking, Lucasian Professor of Mathematics at Cambridge University, is introduced by the speaker. Hawking will deliver the second Millennium Lecture at the White House.

Audience:
The lecture is being broadcast live via satellite to audiences at 190 downlinks in 43 states. Thousands more are watching via the Internet, C-SPAN, and the BBC.

Importance of Science and Math Education:
President Clinton emphasizes the importance of providing future leaders with the best possible education in science and math.

Hawking’s Accomplishments:
Hawking has spent a lifetime unlocking the mysteries of the universe. He has received numerous honors, including being inducted into the Royal Academy in London. His book, “A Brief History of Time,” is the best-selling science book ever written.

Hawking’s Communication System:
Hawking has ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease. He communicates through a customized computer system that enables him to select words from the bottom of his computer screen and send them to a speech synthesizer.

Hawking’s Legacy:
Hawking embodies the enduring spirit of imagination and sees no boundaries. He has expanded the domain of physics to audiences like us.

Static Visions of the Future:
Traditional portrayals of the future in science fiction often depict a static, near-perfect society far advanced in science, technology, and organization.

Exponential Growth:
Hawking challenges this notion, asserting that history shows constant knowledge and technological advancements with exponential growth in recent times. Measures like population growth, electricity consumption, and scientific publications demonstrate this exponential trend, doubling every 40 years or less.

Current Discontent:
Despite this growth, people feel cheated by the lack of utopian visions from the past, such as moon bases and manned flights to Jupiter.

Impossibility of Continued Exponential Growth:
Hawking argues that the current exponential growth cannot continue indefinitely due to physical limitations and information overload.

Potential Outcomes:
One possibility is a catastrophic self-destruction, such as a nuclear war, due to civilization’s inherent instability at this stage of development. While Hawking believes there’s another explanation for the lack of extraterrestrial contact, he refrains from discussing it in this segment.

Hawking warns of the real danger of self-destruction now that humanity possesses the technological power to do so. Even if complete annihilation is avoided, a descent into a brutal and barbaric state, similar to the opening scene of Terminator, is a possibility.

Hawking’s Optimism and Predictions:
Despite the risks, Hawking remains optimistic that both Armageddon and a new dark age can be averted. Predicting scientific and technological developments over the next millennium is challenging, but Hawking offers his forecasts. While his predictions for the next century may have a chance of being accurate, those for the remainder of the millennium are speculative.

The Roots of Modern Science:
Modern scientific understanding emerged around the time of the European settlement of North America. In 1679, Isaac Newton, a Cambridge professor, published his theory of gravity. In 1864, Clerk Maxwell, another Cambridge scientist, discovered the equations governing electricity and magnetism.

Classical Laws and the Understanding of the Universe:
By the late 19th century, it seemed possible to achieve a complete understanding of the universe using classical laws. Classical laws align with common sense notions that physical quantities like position, speed, and rotation should be well-defined and continuously variable.

Common Sense Vs. Quantum Theory:
Stephen Hawking challenges the notion of common sense as a reliable guide to understanding the universe, highlighting the counterintuitive nature of quantum mechanics.

Quantum Theory: A New Paradigm:
Quantum mechanics emerged in the early 20th century to explain observations that defied classical physics, such as the quantization of energy.

Uncertainty and Multiple Histories in Quantum Theory:
In quantum theory, particles lack a single, unique history, instead having every possible history with varying probabilities. This uncertainty becomes significant at the atomic and subatomic levels, unlike macroscopic systems like baseball games.

Feynman’s Sum Over Histories:
Richard Feynman introduced the concept of summing over all possible histories to calculate probabilities in quantum theory.

Paths Beyond the Speed of Light and Time Travel:
Quantum theory allows for paths that travel faster than light and even paths that go back in time, but these are not practical for time travel.

Virtual Particles in Empty Space:
Even seemingly empty space is filled with particles moving in closed loops in space and time, with both forward and backward time components. These virtual particles have observable consequences, as demonstrated by the Casimir effect, where a small force pushes metal plates together due to the reduction of closed loops between them.

Infinite Possibilities and the American Budget:
The infinite number of closed loops of particles in space and time poses a mathematical challenge, similar to the American budget, where subtracting one infinity from another yields a finite result.

Challenges in Unifying Quantum Theory and Relativity:
Difficulties arise when attempting to combine quantum theory with Einstein’s general relativity due to an infinite number of closed loops causing trouble.

Supersymmetry and Grassman Dimensions:
Supersymmetry, a new concept in nature, was proposed as a solution to the infinite energy issue. Grassman dimensions, extra dimensions measured using Grassman numbers, were introduced as part of this theory.

Super-partner Species and Energy Cancellation:
Each species of particle has a super-partner species with closed loops of particles that have opposite energy signs. This leads to a tendency for infinite energies to cancel out.

Progress and the Holy Grail of Physics:
There has been progress in understanding the universe, from classical physics to atomic, nuclear, and high-energy physics. Although the ultimate goal, unifying Einstein’s general relativity with quantum theory, remains elusive, it is believed to be achievable.

The Planck Length as a Limit:
There is a limit to the series of discovering structures on smaller length scales, known as the Planck length, which is extremely small.

Testing Supersymmetry and the Superconducting Supercollider:
Supersymmetry is fundamental to unifying general relativity and quantum theory and can be tested by finding superpartners of known particles. The superconducting supercollider, which could have tested this, was canceled, a decision considered short-sighted.

Future Prospects for Discovery:
Observational evidence from the Big Bang and mathematical beauty and consistency will play a role in discovering the ultimate theory of everything. The prediction is that the theory will be discovered by the end of the 21st century, possibly within 20 years.

Biological Evolution:
Biological evolution, proposed by Charles Darwin, is a slow process of increasing complexity in DNA through natural selection of mutations. The complexity of DNA is measured by the number of bits of information coded in it, roughly equivalent to the number of nucleic acids in the molecule.

DNA Complexity Increase:
Initially, the rate of increase in DNA complexity was very slow, estimated at one bit of information every hundred years for the first two billion years. Over the last few million years, the rate has gradually increased to approximately one bit per year.

Genetic Engineering:
We are now entering a new era where we can increase the complexity of our DNA without relying on slow biological evolution. Genetic engineering on humans is likely to become a reality in the next thousand years, despite potential ethical concerns.

Genetic Engineering and Human Enhancement:
Genetic engineering on plants and animals is likely to be allowed for economic reasons. Someone will eventually attempt human genetic engineering, leading to the development of “improved humans.” Hawking emphasizes that this is not a desirable outcome but a probable reality.

Complexity and Intelligence:
The human race needs to enhance its mental and physical qualities to cope with the increasingly complex world and challenges like space travel. Biological systems must outpace electronic ones in terms of complexity to maintain dominance.

Moore’s Law and Exponential Growth:
Computers have a speed advantage but lack intelligence due to their lower complexity compared to even simple organisms like earthworms. Moore’s Law predicts that computer speed and complexity will double every 18 months, leading to exponential growth. This growth cannot continue indefinitely, but it will likely continue until computers reach a complexity similar to the human brain.

Artificial Intelligence and Complexity:
Some argue that computers can never exhibit true intelligence. Hawking believes that complex electronic circuits can imitate the intelligence of complex chemical molecules in humans. If computers become intelligent, they can design even more complex and intelligent computers, leading to a cycle of increasing complexity.

Rapid Increase in Complexity:
Hawking challenges the static depiction of the future in science fiction, predicting a rapid increase in complexity in both biological and electronic spheres. While significant changes may not occur in the next hundred years, the transformation will be fundamental by the end of the millennium.

Political and Technological Implications:
Hawking believes the present world order has a future, but it will undergo significant changes due to technological advancements. He emphasizes the importance of reconciling the infinitesimal with the infinite to achieve a theory of everything. Hawking’s insights have challenged notions of time and eternity, inspiring a dynamic and human-centered vision of the future.

Unpredictable Discoveries:
Stephen Hawking believes the most exciting cosmological discoveries will be unexpected, as they have been in the past.

Anthropic Principle:
William Phillips proposes that the universe follows mathematical laws because any different laws would have prevented the evolution of life and the ability to ask such questions, known as the anthropic principle.

Genetic Engineering:
Francis Collins acknowledges the potential of genetic engineering to eradicate diseases and alleviate suffering but cautions against its misuse. Collins emphasizes the moral and ethical implications of using genetic engineering to enhance human beings, such as defining what constitutes an improvement. He warns against further discrimination between the haves and have-nots and stresses the need for public involvement to ensure that technology serves humanity rather than dominating it.

Humble Perspective:
Stephen Hawking expresses humility when compared to Newton and Einstein, stating that the media hype surrounding him is due to his fit within the popular stereotype of a mad scientist or disabled genius.

Message from Space:
Astronaut Andrew Thomas, orbiting Earth on the space station Mir, sends a special message from outer space.

Exploration and Education:
Thomas emphasizes the importance of encouraging students to participate in space exploration-related activities.

Combining Past and Future:
He believes these activities serve to honor the past and envision the future of space exploration.

Promoting Student Participation:
Thomas expresses gratitude for the students’ participation in the event and calls for continued support of science education.

In his response to a question from Sakeel Moyo, Professor Hawking stated that observations suggest there isn’t enough matter in the universe to stop its expansion. He noted that if there is additional undetected dark matter, the universe could collapse in a “big crunch,” ending the universe and time itself. He clarified that there doesn’t seem to be a way to progress from the “big crunch” to a new “big bang,” providing some relief that this event is at least 20 billion years away.

Dr. Andrea Dupree’s Comment:
Dr. Dupree reflected on the rapid pace of scientific understanding and development, particularly in astrophysics. She emphasized the unexpected discoveries made using the Hubble Space Telescope, such as observing the surface of a star from the time of Christopher Columbus’ arrival in America. She concluded that basic research is essential for preparing for the unexpected and gaining a better understanding of our place in the universe.

Stephen Hawking discusses recent observational evidence suggesting the existence of an anti-gravitational force causing the universe to expand at an accelerating rate. Einstein initially proposed the concept but later regretted it, considering it his greatest mistake. If present, the anti-gravitational force is likely very small, making it challenging to understand why unless it is precisely zero. Confirmation or refutation of this force may require observations from new satellites launched by the US and Europe in the early years of the new millennium. Analysis of satellite data would necessitate a supercomputer like the National Cosmology Computer in Cambridge, UK. Verification of an anti-gravitational force would imply that inflation is a natural law.

The Power of the Heart and Spirit
President Clinton acknowledges Vice President Gore’s absence due to obligations in New Hampshire, jokingly attributing it to a unique gravitational force in the state. Clinton expresses his opposition to the cancellation of the Superconducting Super Collider (SSC) project, reiterating the administration’s support for the Swiss project that aims to fill the gap. Clinton acknowledges the numerous questions from the audience and expresses his interest in exploring the implications of a multidimensional understanding of time and space and advanced computers on our notions of time and communication. Clinton emphasizes Hawking’s status as a living miracle, highlighting the power of the heart and spirit amidst the technological marvels that enabled Hawking’s communication with the audience. Clinton expresses his hope that scientific advancements will amplify the heart and spirit witnessed during the evening.