Lee Hsien Loong (Singapore Prime Minister) – Shangri-La Dialogue Opens (Jun 2019)
Chapters
00:00:00 Keynote Address and IISS Research Program Evolution
Introduction: The 18th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual Asia Security Summit, welcomed over 600 delegates from 40 countries and several government ministers. Dr John Chipman, Director-General of the IISS, thanked the host government of Singapore and sponsors for supporting the summit.
IISS Research Program: The IISS research program has evolved to provide policymakers, corporate leaders, and experts with data and analysis for informed decision-making.
European Defense and Security: European NATO members need to invest $288 billion to $357 billion to fill capability gaps and defend against a state-level military attack. This investment would allow a NATO-Europe force to prevail in a limited regional war against a peer adversary.
Iranian Influence Networks: The IISS will publish a strategic dossier on Iran’s influence networks, providing a refined analysis of their command and control mechanisms and strategic directions.
Cyber Power Measurement: The IISS is developing a methodology to measure cyber power, assessing countries’ standing and determining necessary actions to enhance capabilities.
Asia-Pacific Research: The IISS is examining the impact of domestic politics in Southeast Asian countries on regional and international policies. A major assessment of the Belt and Road Initiative’s geoeconomic, trade, investment, energy, and geopolitical implications is underway.
High-Level Attendance and Participation: The dialogue boasts high-level attendance, including China’s State Counsellor and Defence Minister, General Wei Feng He, and defense ministers from the UK and Australia.
Singapore’s Role in Strategic Thinking: Singapore has a reputation for diplomatic entrepreneurship and strategic thinking. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong is invited to deliver the keynote address at the 18th Shangri-La Dialogue.
Southeast Asia’s History and Strategic Situation: Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong provides a historical perspective on Southeast Asia’s involvement in the “great game of nations” and current strategic dynamics. Southeast Asia has faced rivalry, conflict, and proxy wars, but has also achieved remarkable progress through dialogue, cooperation, and integration.
00:15:20 China and the United States: Navigating the Changing World Order
Understanding the US-China Bilateral Relationship: The US-China bilateral relationship is the most important in the world, shaping the international environment for decades to come. China’s rapid growth and transformation have significantly altered the relationship, shifting the strategic balance and economic center of gravity.
China’s Growth and Its Impact: China’s economic growth has lifted over 850 million people out of poverty and transformed its economy from backward to middle-income. It has become a massive production and manufacturing base, benefiting global producers and consumers. China’s success has avoided disastrous outcomes such as armed revolution and instability.
China’s New Responsibilities and Challenges: China’s growth has shifted the global balance of power, requiring it to take on larger responsibilities. China must recognize its new situation and cannot expect to be treated as it was when it was smaller and weaker. It needs to uphold the international system, support globalization, and implement timely changes to reflect its more advanced state of development.
Security and the South China Sea: China’s military buildup and aspirations to become a maritime power are natural, but it must wield its strength with restraint and legitimacy. Disputes in the South China Sea should be resolved peacefully through diplomacy and compromise, respecting other countries’ core interests and rights.
Adjusting to China’s Rise: The rest of the world must accept China’s continued growth and ambitions, including its pursuit of advanced technologies. China should be encouraged to play commensurate roles in supranational institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and WTO. New international rules need to be made in various areas, considering China’s interests and expectations.
Trade Dispute and Its Implications: The US-China trade dispute, if unresolved, could have severe consequences beyond economic losses. It could contaminate the broader bilateral relationship and lead to a more divided and troubled world.
Hardening Attitudes and Negative Views: Both the US and China are experiencing hardening attitudes towards each other, with each side seeing the other as a challenge or threat. The US views China as a revisionist power, leading to bipartisan consensus on containing China. American businesses’ goodwill towards China has soured due to perceived unfair trade practices and limited market access.
China’s Response and Nationalistic Fervor: China sees US actions as attempts to thwart its legitimate ambitions and impose foreign values. There is a strong vein of nationalistic fervor in China, including rebroadcasting movies about past conflicts and circulating songs about the US trade war.
00:29:48 Avoiding US-China Conflict in a Globalized World
Mutual Strategic Distrust: The fundamental issue between the US and China is a lack of strategic trust, hindering compromise or peaceful accommodation. Despite China’s communist political structure, it has embraced market principles and integrated into multilateral institutions, unlike the USSR. China’s extensive economic ties with the world, particularly in Asia, complicate a clear division of allies and adversaries.
No Clear Division in a New Cold War: Unlike the Cold War, a new US-China conflict would lack a clear ideological divide or a NATO/Warsaw Pact equivalent. China’s economic strength and the interconnectedness of global trade make a total collapse like the USSR’s highly improbable.
Economic Consequences of Prolonged Tension: A prolonged period of tension and uncertainty would harm international cooperation on pressing issues like Korea, nuclear non-proliferation, and climate change. Economic losses would extend beyond GDP reduction, affecting globalized markets, production chains, and knowledge sharing.
Responsibility of Political Leaders: Security and defense establishments must plan for worst-case scenarios, but political leaders have the responsibility to find solutions to prevent extreme outcomes. Domestic pressures in the US, including divided political views and declining confidence in globalism, complicate efforts to resolve tensions with China.
China’s Domestic Focus: China’s leaders primarily focus on domestic issues, such as uneven growth, rural poverty, an aging population, and rising expectations for a better quality of life. Both the US and China are sensitive about being perceived as weak, which affects their ability to negotiate.
Historical Context of Sino-Western Relations: China’s history with the West, particularly the May 4th Movement in 1919, shapes its leaders’ reluctance to accept unequal treaties. In 1919, China was forced to accept decisions against its interests at the Versailles Peace Conference, triggering protests and a nationalist movement.
Political Challenges to US-China Accommodation: The zero-sum dynamic between the US and China makes it difficult to construct an agreement acceptable to both parties. Both countries need to reach an accommodation to focus on their pressing domestic priorities and avoid troubled relations.
00:38:35 Reforming the Global Economic Architecture
Reforming and Strengthening Multilateral Institutions: Multilateral institutions, such as the WTO, need reform to address the challenges of the modern world. Bilateral negotiations often favor larger countries and limit win-win opportunities. Strengthening multilateral institutions can help small countries like Singapore navigate the complex global landscape.
Building Regional and International Cooperation: Deepening economic cooperation among countries enhances shared prosperity and collective security. Regional trade agreements, such as the CPTPP and RCEP, can incrementally build support for lower trade barriers and higher standards. The CPTPP and RCEP have different footprints and standards, catering to different regional interests.
The Importance of the CPTPP: The CPTPP preserves most of the negotiated terms of the TPP after the US withdrew. More countries have expressed interest in joining the CPTPP, including South Korea, Thailand, and the United Kingdom. China is observing the CPTPP and may consider joining in the future.
The Potential US Return to the CPTPP: A future US administration may recognize the economic and strategic benefits of rejoining the CPTPP. The US played a leading role in designing the CPTPP, and its return would strengthen the partnership.
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): The RCEP includes key countries in Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and India. The RCEP standards are less ambitious than the CPTPP due to the diverse range of participants. The RCEP aims to minimize perceptions of exclusion and foster cooperation among countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
00:44:10 BRI: Opportunities and Challenges for Regional Integration
ASEAN’s Role in Regional Cooperation: ASEAN has provided a platform for dialogue and cooperation among 10 diverse countries in Southeast Asia. ASEAN has deepened ties, maintained peace, and enabled its members to project a stronger external presence as a group. ASEAN operates on consensus and makes progress in various areas, but it is influenced by external forces.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Singapore supports the BRI as a positive engagement mechanism for China in the region and beyond. Singapore participates in the BRI, promoting financial and infrastructure connectivity and providing professional and legal services. The BRI’s success depends on economically sound projects that benefit partners and an open and inclusive approach that avoids creating a closed block centered on China.
Balancing Ties with China and Other Countries: Asian countries need to strengthen ties with China while also growing relationships with the US, Europe, Japan, and others. The BRI should integrate China with the world and strengthen globalization, not divide the world into spheres of influence.
Openness, Transparency, and Sustainability in the BRI: China has recently emphasized the openness, environmental sustainability, and debt sustainability of BRI projects. These statements are positive steps, but their implementation will determine their effectiveness.
Indo-Pacific Cooperation Initiatives: Various concepts of Indo-Pacific cooperation have been proposed, but they are less developed than the BRI. Singapore supports open and inclusive regional cooperation initiatives that deepen regional integration and strengthen existing ASEAN-centered arrangements. These initiatives should avoid creating rival blocs, deepening fault lines, or forcing countries to take sides.
00:48:52 Power Dynamics, Conflict Avoidance, and the Role of Small Countries in US-China
Maintaining Constructive US-China Relations: Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong emphasizes the need for the US and China to find a balance between competition and cooperation. He highlights the importance of addressing differences openly and candidly to avoid inevitable conflict.
Diversity as a Strength: PM Lee rejects the idea of imposing uniform cultural values and political systems, emphasizing the strength in humanity’s diversity. He stresses the importance of learning from one another’s differences and promoting global progress.
Historical Lessons: PM Lee draws lessons from Southeast Asia’s history of great power rivalry and the consequences of isolation and conflict. He emphasizes the value of openness, integration, peace, and cooperation for regional prosperity.
Addressing US-China Issues: PM Lee suggests that the US and China need to engage at the top level and address the basic issue of China’s growth and its implications. He emphasizes the need to discuss specific issues on their merits and avoid bringing in other considerations.
Role of Small Countries: PM Lee acknowledges the challenge for small countries to avoid taking sides in US-China relations. He suggests maintaining friendly relations with both parties and developing ties in various areas, including economic, trade, human resource development, and security exchanges. He also highlights the importance of resisting pressure to take sides, especially when lines start getting drawn.
00:59:50 Navigating Trust and Security Challenges in the Era of 5G Networks
5G Network Selection Considerations: Singapore is carefully considering its options for 5G network equipment and configuration, consulting with industry experts and friendly regulators. Key factors in the decision-making process include security, performance, cost, reliability, growth potential, and vendor diversity.
Security Concerns in Telecommunications: It is unrealistic to expect 100% security from any telecommunications system, as vulnerabilities exist in all systems and can be exploited by malicious actors. Balancing security risks with other considerations such as performance, cost, and reliability is essential when choosing a telecom system.
Trust as a Fundamental Issue: Trust is crucial when selecting a telecommunications system, especially when purchasing from another country. If there is a lack of trust in the vendor, even rigorous inspections and testing cannot guarantee the absence of malicious features or vulnerabilities.
Consequences of Mistrust: Mistrust can lead to a fragmented global supply chain, with countries developing their own isolated systems and technologies, similar to the situation during the Cold War. This fragmentation can result in a less interconnected and less secure world.
Challenges of Anonymity on the Internet: Anonymity on the Internet makes it difficult to identify malicious actors and state-sponsored cyber intrusions. The lack of accountability and the inability to prove guilt or innocence create a market failure, where opportunities for trust-based business transactions are hindered.
Long-Term Solutions: Establishing rules, finding ways to pin responsibility, and implementing mechanisms for naming and shaming malicious actors can help mitigate the challenges of trust in telecommunications. These measures can create incentives for responsible behavior and deter malicious activities.
China’s Diplomatic Challenge: China has achieved remarkable progress in improving relations with its neighboring countries, but a sense of discomfort and lack of natural friendship persist in many Asian states. To increase its comfort level in the region, China should address concerns about its intentions, actions, and policies.
China’s Impact on Others: China’s actions have significant consequences on others due to its size and power. Its actions are interpreted differently compared to smaller countries.
The Elephant Metaphor: Lee Kuan Yew used the analogy of elephants to illustrate the challenges faced by powerful nations. When elephants fight or engage in any activity, the grass (smaller countries) suffers.
Importance of Goodwill: Lack of goodwill among smaller countries can hinder the long-term sustainability of a great power’s influence. China intellectually understands the need for peaceful emergence and acceptance by the global community.
The Rise of Great Powers Series: A Chinese television series, The Rise of Great Powers, examined the historical rise and fall of major world powers. It emphasized the importance of peaceful emergence and winning global acceptance.
Challenges of Practical Implementation: Despite intellectual understanding, China faces practical difficulties in implementing these principles. It is difficult to put oneself in someone else’s shoes and see one’s conduct from their perspective. This challenge is even more pronounced for large countries.
01:13:47 US Experience in Asia and Implications for Regional Stability
US Presence in Asia: The US has had a presence in Asia since the war, maintaining a powerful military presence with its 7th Fleet. Despite its dominance, the US has been welcomed in Asia, gaining friends due to its generous policies and broad-mindedness. This environment has allowed the US’s friends and neighbors in the region to grow, prosper, and compete peacefully for decades.
US Role Model: It is challenging for one large country to choose another large country as a role model. However, there is valuable experience to be learned from the US’s approach in Asia since the war.
Shangri-La Dialogue Speeches: Lee Hsien Loong’s first keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue was in 2006, followed by another in 2015. His latest speech came four years after the previous one, a period marked by significant strategic changes. The audience eagerly awaited his analysis of these changes and his insights on how to navigate them.
Appreciation for Support: Dr. John Chipman expressed gratitude for Lee Hsien Loong’s support of the IISS, the Shangri-La Dialogue process, and the goals set for serious dialogue. He commended Lee Hsien Loong’s effortless and fluent championing of these goals.
Abstract
Shaping Global Dynamics through Strategic Autonomy, Regional Cooperation, and Technology Security
In an era marked by shifting global dynamics, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has significantly adapted its research program to provide pivotal insights for policymakers and experts. A paramount development is the comprehensive assessment of European strategic autonomy, proposing an investment of US$288 billion to US$357 billion for NATO defense capabilities. Concurrently, the IISS delves into the intricacies of Iran’s influence networks and pioneers a methodology to gauge cyber power. In Asia-Pacific, the IISS scrutinizes domestic politics’ impact on regional policies, with Japan’s significant contribution enhancing the institute’s scope. At this historical juncture, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s keynote address underscores the criticality of understanding Southeast Asia’s past to navigate the present strategic landscape. Lee emphasizes ASEAN’s formation, post-Cold War developments, and the nuanced relationship between the US and China, reflecting on strategic distrust, the lack of an ideological divide, and the complexities of economic interdependence. This intricate web of global relations underscores the importance of multilateral cooperation, as seen in the reform needs of the WTO and Singapore’s advocacy for multilateralism. The article further explores regional cooperation dynamics, including the Belt and Road Initiative and Indo-Pacific strategies, while addressing the challenges and opportunities in US-China relations from the perspective of smaller countries. Finally, it delves into Singapore’s cautious approach to 5G network security and China’s evolving relations with Asian countries, highlighting the nuances of being a great power and the enduring US influence in Asia.
Main Ideas and Expansion
IISS Research Program Evolution
The IISS’s evolution reflects its commitment to providing essential data and analysis for informed decision-making. This encompasses a broad spectrum of areas including strategic autonomy, cyber power, and regional geopolitical dynamics. The research program has expanded to provide policymakers, corporate leaders, and experts with data and analysis on these issues, enabling them to make informed decisions and navigate the complex global landscape.
European Strategic Autonomy Cost Assessment
The financial implications of European strategic autonomy are substantial, with investments needed to fill capability gaps for NATO defense. This highlights Europe’s increasing focus on self-reliance in defense and security. The assessment found that NATO members need to invest between $288 billion and $357 billion to fill capability gaps and defend against a state-level military attack. This investment would allow a NATO-Europe force to prevail in a limited regional war against a peer adversary.
Iran’s Influence Networks Analysis
Understanding Iran’s influence networks offers insights into its operations and strategic directions, critical for regional stability and global security strategies. The IISS will publish a strategic dossier on Iran’s influence networks, providing a refined analysis of their command and control mechanisms and strategic directions. This analysis will help policymakers and security experts better understand Iran’s regional and international ambitions and develop effective strategies to address them.
Cyber Power Measurement Methodology
The development of a cyber power measurement methodology is a leap forward in assessing national cyber capabilities, reflecting the growing importance of cybersecurity in international relations. The IISS is developing a methodology to measure cyber power, assessing countries’ standing and determining necessary actions to enhance capabilities. This methodology will provide a comprehensive framework for evaluating cyber power and assist policymakers in developing strategies to strengthen their cyber capabilities and protect their national interests in cyberspace.
Asia-Pacific Research
The IISS’s focus on Asia-Pacific, including the Belt and Road Initiative and North Korea’s nuclear challenge, underscores the region’s strategic significance in global geopolitics. The IISS is examining the impact of domestic politics in Southeast Asian countries on regional and international policies. A major assessment of the Belt and Road Initiative’s geoeconomic, trade, investment, energy, and geopolitical implications is underway. This research will provide valuable insights into the dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region and help policymakers navigate the complex challenges and opportunities it presents.
Japan Chair and Senior Fellow Appointment
Japan’s investment in the IISS enhances the institute’s research capabilities in Asia-Pacific, indicating Japan’s active role in shaping regional security dialogues. The appointment of a Japan Chair and Senior Fellow to the IISS underscores Japan’s commitment to contributing to regional security and stability. This appointment will strengthen the IISS’s research capacity in Asia-Pacific and provide valuable insights into the region’s strategic dynamics.
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s Keynote Address
Lee’s address at a global turning point draws attention to the historical context of Southeast Asia, offering a lens through which to understand current strategic challenges, especially with respect to US-China relations. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s keynote address at the 18th Shangri-La Dialogue provided a comprehensive historical perspective on Southeast Asia’s involvement in the “great game of nations” and current strategic dynamics. He highlighted the region’s history of rivalry, conflict, and proxy wars, as well as its remarkable progress through dialogue, cooperation, and integration.
ASEAN’s Formation and Impact
The formation of ASEAN and its role in fostering regional cooperation and economic prosperity exemplifies the power of diplomatic initiatives in achieving stability and growth. ASEAN’s formation in 1967 marked a significant step towards regional cooperation and economic prosperity in Southeast Asia. The organization has played a vital role in promoting peace, stability, and economic development in the region.
Post-Cold War Developments and China’s Growing Role
The post-Cold War era and China’s rise as a major economic player have significantly altered the global strategic landscape, necessitating a recalibration of international relations. The end of the Cold War and China’s rapid economic growth have transformed the global strategic landscape. China’s growing economic and military power has shifted the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. This has necessitated a recalibration of international relations and a rethinking of security strategies.
Strategic Distrust in US-China Relations
The lack of strategic trust between the US and China presents a major obstacle to peaceful coexistence, influenced by differing political systems, economic interdependence, and domestic pressures. The lack of strategic trust between the US and China is a major obstacle to peaceful coexistence. This mistrust is rooted in differing political systems, economic interdependence, and domestic pressures. The US views China as a strategic competitor and a potential threat to its global dominance. China, on the other hand, sees the US as trying to contain its rise and prevent it from becoming a global power. This mutual distrust makes it difficult to find common ground and resolve disputes peacefully.
US Presence in Asia
The US has had a presence in Asia since the war, maintaining a powerful military presence with its 7th Fleet. Despite its dominance, the US has been welcomed in Asia, gaining friends due to its generous policies and broad-mindedness. This environment has allowed the US’s friends and neighbors in the region to grow, prosper, and compete peacefully for decades. It is challenging for one large country to choose another large country as a role model, yet there is valuable experience to be learned from the US’s approach in Asia since the war.
Multilateral Cooperation and WTO Reforms
The call for WTO reforms and the emphasis on multilateral cooperation reflect the evolving nature of international trade and the need for a more inclusive and effective global trade system. The call for WTO reforms and the emphasis on multilateral cooperation reflect the evolving nature of international trade and the need for a more inclusive and effective global trade system. The WTO is facing challenges due to the rise of protectionism, the growing importance of digital trade, and the need to address global imbalances. Reforms are needed to make the WTO more responsive to these challenges and to ensure that it remains a relevant and effective forum for global trade negotiations.
Challenges in US-China Relations
China’s Domestic Focus:
China’s leaders primarily focus on domestic issues, such as uneven growth, rural poverty, an aging population, and rising expectations for a better quality of life. Both the US and China are sensitive about being perceived as weak, which affects their ability to negotiate.
Historical Context of Sino-Western Relations:
China’s history with the West, particularly the May 4th Movement in 1919, shapes its leaders’ reluctance to accept unequal treaties. In 1919, China was forced to accept decisions against its interests at the Versailles Peace Conference, triggering protests and a nationalist movement.
Political Challenges to US-China Accommodation:
The zero-sum dynamic between the US and China makes it difficult to construct an agreement acceptable to both parties. Both countries need to reach an accommodation to focus on their pressing domestic priorities and avoid troubled relations.
Singapore’s Perspective on Global Cooperation in the Face of Growing Hostility and Instability
Reforming and Strengthening Multilateral Institutions:
Multilateral institutions, such as the WTO, need reform to address the challenges of the modern world. Bilateral negotiations often favor larger countries and limit win-win opportunities. Strengthening multilateral institutions can help small countries like Singapore navigate the complex global landscape.
Building Regional and International Cooperation:
Deepening economic cooperation among countries enhances shared prosperity and collective security. Regional trade agreements, such as the CPTPP and RCEP, can incrementally build support for lower trade barriers and higher standards. The CPTPP and RCEP have different footprints and standards, catering to different regional interests.
The Importance of the CPTPP:
The CPTPP preserves most of the negotiated terms of the TPP after the US withdrew. More countries have expressed interest in joining the CPTPP, including South Korea, Thailand, and the United Kingdom. China is observing the CPTPP and may consider joining in the future.
The Potential US Return to the CPTPP:
A future US administration may recognize the economic and strategic benefits of rejoining the CPTPP. The US played a leading role in designing the CPTPP, and its return would strengthen the partnership.
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP):
The RCEP includes key countries in Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and India. The RCEP standards are less ambitious than the CPTPP due to the diverse range of participants. The RCEP aims to minimize perceptions of exclusion and foster cooperation among countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
Lee Hsien Loong’s Views on Regional Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific
ASEAN’s Role in Regional Cooperation:
ASEAN has provided a platform for dialogue and cooperation among 10 diverse countries in Southeast Asia. ASEAN has deepened ties, maintained peace, and enabled its members to project a stronger external presence as a group. ASEAN operates on consensus and makes progress in various areas, but it is influenced by external forces.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI):
Singapore supports the BRI as a positive engagement mechanism for China in the region and beyond. Singapore participates in the BRI, promoting financial and infrastructure connectivity and providing professional and legal services. The BRI’s success depends on economically sound projects that benefit partners and an open and inclusive approach that avoids creating a closed block centered on China.
Balancing Ties with China and Other Countries:
Asian countries need to strengthen ties with China while also growing relationships with the US, Europe, Japan, and others. The BRI should integrate China with the world and strengthen globalization, not divide the world into spheres of influence.
Openness, Transparency, and Sustainability in the BRI:
China has recently emphasized the openness, environmental sustainability, and debt sustainability of BRI projects. These statements are positive steps, but their implementation will determine their effectiveness.
Indo-Pacific Cooperation Initiatives:
Various concepts of Indo-Pacific cooperation have been proposed, but they are less developed than the BRI. Singapore supports open and inclusive regional cooperation initiatives that deepen regional integration and strengthen existing ASEAN-centered arrangements. These initiatives should avoid creating rival blocs, deepening fault lines, or forcing countries to take sides.
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