Introduction of Graham Allison:
Graham T. Allison is the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University. He is an expert in national security, particularly nuclear weapons, Russia, China, and decision-making. Allison served as Assistant Secretary of Defense under President Clinton and Special Advisor to the Secretary of Defense under President Reagan. He is the recipient of numerous awards, including the Defense Medal for Distinguished Public Service and the Distinguished Public Service Medal. Allison’s books include “Essence of Decision” and “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?”

Astrid Terenius’s Personal Connection with Allison:
Terenius worked with Allison in the past and considers him a mentor and friend. She praises Allison’s leadership and intellectual abilities.

Allison’s Lecture on the China Challenge:
The China challenge is the defining issue on the international agenda for the US and the world. Allison argues that the US and China are on a collision course due to the Thucydides Trap, a historical pattern in which a rising power challenges an established power, leading to conflict. The US and China are competing for economic, technological, and military dominance. Allison believes that the US and China can avoid conflict if they manage their relationship carefully and find ways to cooperate on common interests.

Call for Questions and Discussion:
Allison encourages the audience, especially students, to submit questions in the chat. The lecture will be recorded and made available for viewing later.

Lucidity’s Trap:
Thucydides’ trap is a concept coined by Graham T. Allison, inspired by Thucydides’ observation that rising powers often challenge ruling powers, leading to war. In the past 500 years, 12 out of 16 cases of rising powers threatening ruling powers resulted in war. The US-China rivalry is a Thucydidean rivalry, with China’s meteoric rise threatening to displace the US as the world’s leading power.

Escaping Thucydides’ Trap:
Avoiding war between the US and China is not inevitable, as four out of 16 historical cases of rising powers challenging ruling powers did not result in war. Statecraft beyond normal is necessary to escape the trap of history. One possible avenue of escape is nuclear mutual assured destruction, which makes a catastrophic war between the US and China unthinkable.

Distinct Features of the 21st Century:
Nuclear mutual assured destruction is a reality that has been present since the Cold War. The rise of China is occurring simultaneously with a global pandemic and climate change, creating a unique set of challenges.

Lucidity and Livelihood:
During the Cold War, the focus was on avoiding nuclear war due to its catastrophic consequences. The US and USSR worked together to constrain their behavior and prevent misunderstandings. Today, climate change poses a similar threat, requiring coordination and cooperation between the US and China to prevent mutual destruction.

Rivalry Partnership:
The Song Dynasty in China faced a rival tribe called the Liao and negotiated the Chanyang Treaty in 1005. This treaty resulted in intense rivalry in some areas and intense partnership in others. The US and China face a similar situation today, where they are fierce rivals but must also cooperate to address global challenges.

Holding Contradictory Ideas:
The US and China must hold contradictory ideas in their heads: they are rivals, but they must also cooperate. The differences between being number one and number two matter, and the US is unwilling to cede its leadership role. This rivalry partnership is a reality that both countries must navigate.

Life in the Business World:
Tim Cook, the CEO of Apple, referred to this situation as “life” in the business world. Rivalry and partnership coexist, and companies must find ways to balance these contradictory forces.

Thucydides Trap and Domestic Politics:
China’s economic growth and increasing global influence have caused concern and anxiety in the United States. Domestic politics in both countries play a significant role in shaping the bilateral relationship. Leaders must navigate domestic pressures and perceptions to manage the rivalry and avoid conflict.

Economic Competition and Domestic Perceptions:
China’s economic success and trade agreements with other countries have raised concerns in the United States about China’s growing power. Domestic political dynamics in both countries create incentives for leaders to take a tough stance on China to avoid being seen as weak or sympathetic towards China.

Poverty Alleviation and Human Rights:
China has achieved remarkable success in reducing poverty, lifting millions of people out of extreme poverty. However, China’s human rights record, particularly its treatment of Uyghur Muslims, has drawn criticism and condemnation from the United States and other countries.

Complexities of the Rivalry:
The US-China rivalry is complex and multifaceted, involving economic competition, technological advancements, military power, and ideological differences. Managing the rivalry effectively requires a nuanced understanding of the various factors at play, including domestic political dynamics, perceptions, and misperceptions, and the need to balance competition with cooperation on global issues.

Thucydides Trap and US-China Rivalry:
Graham Allison discusses the complexities of the US-China rivalry and the challenges posed by domestic politics.

China’s Progress and Public Sentiment:
China’s achievements and social media discourse among its younger population reflect a sense of pride and empowerment. Chinese citizens’ reactions to negative rhetoric from Americans often involve pointing out flaws in the United States.

Demonization and Xenophobia:
Allison criticizes the oversimplification and demonization of China in US politics, as well as the related xenophobia directed at people of Asian ethnicity.

Domestic Politics Impact:
Astrid Terenius highlights the challenges of domestic politics in the US and its impact on the US-China relationship.

Thucydides Trap and Potential Triggers:
Allison acknowledges that in Thucydides’ analysis of rivalries, neither power often wants war, recognizing the potential catastrophic consequences. However, he notes that events or triggers can intensify tensions and lead to conflict despite the awareness of the risks.

Managing and Mitigating Tensions:
Allison emphasizes the need to manage and mitigate increased tensions between the US and China to avoid unintended consequences.

Black Swans and Unintended Triggers:
Terenius brings up the concept of black swans or unintended triggers, drawing parallels to the nuclear standoff in the 1980s.

Shared Interests Between the US and China:
Vital Interests: Climate Change: Cooperation is essential to mitigate climate change and ensure the survival of both nations. Nuclear War: Avoiding nuclear conflict is a shared interest. Complex Interests: Global Economy: The US and China have a deeply integrated economic relationship. Cooperation is vital for economic stability. Trade: Trade between the US and China benefits both economies. China plays a significant role in the global economy.

US Alliances in the Asia-Pacific Region:
Balancing China: US alliances in the Asia-Pacific region are crucial for balancing China’s rising power. Strengthening Alliances: The US needs to strengthen existing alliances and potentially form new ones to counter China’s influence. Maintaining Credibility: The US must maintain credibility and reliability as an ally to retain support in the region. The withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership damaged US credibility.

The US’s Declining Soft and Hard Power:
Waning Soft Power: US soft power has declined in recent years, making it more challenging to attract and maintain allies. Limited Hard Power: US hard power, while still significant, is limited. The US cannot solely rely on military might to maintain its position in the Asia-Pacific region.

Conclusion:
The US-China relationship is complex, involving both rivalry and cooperation. Shared interests exist, but maintaining alliances and addressing declining soft power are challenges for the US in the Asia-Pacific region.

Balance of Power as a Seesaw:
Graham Allison simplifies the concept of balance of power by comparing it to a seesaw, with different parties sitting on opposite ends.

China’s Economic Growth:
China’s rapid economic growth has shifted the global balance of power, lifting both the US and China off the ground.

China’s Global Influence:
As China becomes the number one trading partner and investor for many countries, its influence grows, attracting American investors and pension money.

Reasons for China’s Growth:
Allison emphasizes that China’s growth is not a result of malicious intent but a natural consequence of economic dynamics.

China’s Influence on Pension Funds:
Pension funds invest in China due to the expectation of higher returns, not because of political preferences.

Fear and Threat from China:
Despite their economic dependence on China, many countries fear and feel threatened by its aggressive behavior.

Counterbalancing China:
The challenge for the US and its allies is to organize an alignment and alliance that can serve as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence.

TPP 2.0:
TPP 2.0 is a possible agreement that could be formed between the U.S. and Asian economies. This agreement would negotiate with China to create a level playing field and better deals for all parties involved. TPP 2.0 would be difficult to achieve due to labor issues within the Biden coalition, but it is not impossible.

Atlantic Space:
There was an effort to negotiate an agreement between the major economies of Europe, Asia, and the U.S. The interests of these economies are largely aligned, and they all have thick relations with China. The goal of this agreement would be to create a level playing field and ensure that everyone plays by the same rules.

Learning About China:
Americans need to learn more about China’s history, politics, and culture. Studying Chinese history can be daunting due to its length, but it is accessible and rewarding. Americans should make an effort to learn the Chinese language, as it can help them better understand the country.

Common Misconceptions:
Much of the reporting about China in the U.S. focuses on exotic, unreasonable, or mysterious aspects of the country. This creates a distorted view of China and its behavior in the world. Americans need to understand that China’s behavior is often a result of its unique history and culture, rather than being inherently unnatural.

Teddy Roosevelt’s Aggressive Foreign Policy:
Teddy Roosevelt, when he came to Washington in 1897, held strong views about foreign influence in the US hemisphere and beyond. He believed that the Spanish presence in Cuba, German real estate deals in Latin America, and British dominance in the Atlantic were all unacceptable.

US Actions During Roosevelt’s Tenure:
US declared war on Spain in 1898 following the mysterious explosion of the Maine in Havana Harbor. The US liberated Cuba, took Puerto Rico, and assumed colonial responsibilities in the Philippines. In the early 20th century, the US supported a revolutionary group in Colombia, leading to the creation of Panama and securing a contract for the Panama Canal. The US threatened war with Germany and Great Britain over territorial disputes. The US acquired a significant portion of Alaska, including the Tongass National Forest, through aggressive actions.

Implications for Xi’s China:
If Xi’s China were to behave similarly to Teddy Roosevelt’s US, it would involve aggressive actions, territorial expansion, and assertive foreign policy. Such behavior could lead to increased tensions, conflicts, and potential military confrontations between China and other countries.

Future Trends in China’s Military Power:
China’s military power is expected to continue growing proportionally to its economic growth. China’s focus on border security and peripheral seas will likely increase as its military strength grows. China’s military expansion may lead to increased tensions with the United States, particularly regarding the South China Sea and Taiwan.

China’s Role in the International Order:
China is expected to seek both integration within the existing international order and the creation of a system more aligned with its interests. China’s growing influence and assertiveness in international organizations have been evident during the Trump administration’s withdrawal from global leadership positions. Xi Jinping’s presence at Davos in 2017 highlighted China’s increased global standing.

Taiwan and the Potential for Conflict:
Taiwan, located 90 miles from China and halfway around the world from the United States, is a significant flashpoint. China views Taiwan’s reintegration as a core interest and may use military force to achieve this goal. The United States and its allies must develop economic and political constraints to deter China from using military force against Taiwan. Taiwan must also refrain from actions that could provoke China.

The Liberal International Economic Order:
The leaders of the liberal international economic order approached Xi Jinping to make a speech celebrating China as its leader. China is the most protectionist and mercantilist participant in the international economy but was willing to accept the celebration.

US Role in the International Order:
The US was the principal architect and supporter of the international order after World War II. The US often follows the rules of the order but not when it’s not in its interest. The US has used military force without UN Security Council authorization more than other countries.

China’s Role in the International Order:
As China gains more power in institutions, it will likely shape the rules to its advantage, which is normal for all countries. China’s values, political system, and economic system differ from the US, posing a potential threat.

Ideological Differences and Shared Interests:
Ideological differences between China and the US, including political and economic disparities, could negatively impact the pursuit of shared interests.

American Democracy as a Work in Progress:
American democracy is an ongoing process and has shown the capacity to recover and renew itself. The US has faced significant challenges but has demonstrated resilience and the ability to rise from adversity.

China’s Effective Management of the Coronavirus Pandemic:
China’s response to the coronavirus pandemic was more effective than the US’s, resulting in significantly fewer deaths. China’s decisive actions and competent governance contributed to their success in controlling the virus.

Taiwan’s Remarkable Success in Combating the Pandemic:
Taiwan’s population of 23 million has experienced only nine deaths from coronavirus. Taiwan’s success is attributed to its competent government, robust information system, and willingness to implement measures that may infringe on individual privacy.

The Balance Between Authority and Liberty:
The debate over the balance between authority and liberty is particularly relevant in the context of addressing existential threats like the coronavirus pandemic. During wartime, societies often accept greater restrictions on individual liberties for the sake of security.

Technological Advancements and the Need for Regulation:
Digital technologies, such as those employed by Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Apple, raise concerns about privacy and the need for government oversight. The Chinese government’s argument that adult supervision is necessary to regulate these technologies is compelling.

Ideological and Economic Debate Regarding China:
The ideological and economic debate about China’s approach to governance often overlooks the potential lessons that can be learned from their pragmatism and adaptability. American society’s core definition as pragmatic may offer common ground for learning from China’s successes.

Game Theory and Navigating Thucydides’ Trap:
Game theory can play a role in helping navigate Thucydides’ trap, which refers to the potential conflict between a rising power and a ruling power. Game theory can provide insights into the strategic interactions between the US and China and help identify paths to avoid conflict.

Analytic Frameworks for Understanding Problems:
Graham Allison emphasizes the value of analytic frameworks for structuring and understanding complex problems. He highlights the idea of win-win solutions, particularly in the context of climate change and nuclear equilibrium.

Trade as an Example:
Allison uses trade as an illustration of win-win solutions. He points out that after the initial win-win situation, where both parties benefit from the exchange, there often arises a win-lose dynamic over the distribution of gains.

Complexity of Win-Win Solutions:
Allison acknowledges the complexity of win-win solutions, especially in situations where different parties have competing interests.

Changing World Dynamics:
Astrid Terenius reflects on the significant changes in the global landscape since the Cold War era. She highlights the rise of China as a major power and the precarious nature of the current international environment.

Appreciation for Graham Allison:
Terenius expresses gratitude to Allison for his insights, mentorship, and friendship. She acknowledges his influence in shaping her approach to problem-solving and leadership.

Closing Remarks:
Astrid Terenius expressed gratitude to Professor Ryan Vogel, colleagues, students, and the marketing and communications team.

Encouragement to Continue Studying:
She encouraged everyone to continue studying China and geopolitics due to their significant impact on the future.

Presidential Lecture Conclusion:
The Presidential Lecture with Professor Graham Allison was concluded successfully.

Appreciation for Questions:
Professor Allison expressed gratitude for the interesting and impressive questions from the students.

Best Wishes for Studies:
He wished the students the best in their studies.

Compliment for President Terenius:
Professor Allison praised President Astrid Terenius for her remarkable leadership.

Desire to Visit and Continue Dialogue:
He expressed his enthusiasm for future opportunities to visit and continue the conversation.

Invitation for Another Visit:
Astrid Terenius assured Professor Allison that he would be invited again.

Farewell and Closing:
The event concluded with a farewell message and well wishes for a great rest of the day.