Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Scholar Investor) – Current Lebanese Political and Economic Situation (Jan 2020)


Chapters

00:00:24 Understanding Governmental Impact on Economic Growth
00:05:48 Consequences of Excessive State Control
00:11:20 Global Political Systems: A Detailed Analysis
00:14:04 The Principles of Political Institutions

Abstract

Lebanon’s Economic Crisis and the Quest for Political Reformation: An In-Depth Analysis

Lebanon’s ongoing economic turmoil, characterized by the state’s unsustainable borrowing practices, the pervasive patronage system, and banks’ intricate involvement, has led to a profound crisis requiring immediate and comprehensive reforms. Riyad Salameh’s insights into the detrimental effects of such practices, coupled with his critique of socialist ideologies and advocacy for subsidiarity, localism, and the principles outlined in the Principia Politica, offer a multifaceted perspective on Lebanon’s challenges. This article delves into these interconnected issues, exploring the depth of Lebanon’s economic woes, the systemic corruption and patronage, the potential pitfalls of Marxist-Arabian socialism, and the innovative solutions proposed by Salameh, all within the broader context of Lebanon’s political and economic landscape.

Lebanon’s Economic Woes: State’s Role and Banks’ Involvement

Lebanon faces significant economic instability due to the state’s excessive borrowing, reminiscent of a Ponzi scheme, and the involvement of banks profiting from this arrangement. The country’s budget deficit, worsened by the patronage system, complicates matters further. Riyad Salameh identifies this excessive borrowing as the root cause of the economic crisis, likening it to a stifling Ponzi scheme that creates unsustainable debt cycles. He also emphasizes the banks’ complicity, as they lend money to the state in a mutually profitable but ultimately damaging cycle.

Patronage System and Its Economic Impact

The patronage system in Lebanon, characterized by favoritism and corruption, significantly undermines economic growth. It leads to misallocation of resources, distortion of competition, and a lack of transparency, evident in the awarding of contracts and state positions based on connections rather than merit. Salameh criticizes this system for its negative impact on governance and economic progress. He also condemns the state’s failure to provide essential services, contributing to a decline in living standards.

Salameh’s Critique: Theft, Corruption, and Subsidiarity

Highlighting rampant theft and corruption in Lebanon, Salameh likens these issues to those in other corrupt nations. He advocates for subsidiarity, a decentralization approach exemplified by Switzerland, to combat patronage and improve governance efficiency by assigning tasks to the most appropriate government level.

The Threat of Marxist-Arabian Socialism and the Failure of Socialism

Salameh expresses concern over the rise of Marxist-Arabian socialism in Lebanon, an ideology he deems dangerous and historically unsuccessful. He draws parallels between Lebanon and Venezuela, refuting claims that Venezuela’s problems are solely due to sanctions and warning against the adoption of similar socialist policies.

Fractal Principle and Political Systems Analysis

Salameh discusses the fractal principle, which involves applying political systems across various scales and recognizes that global dynamics impact these systems. He argues for different political systems at various societal levels and highlights the failure of Arab Socialism due to its disregard for practical considerations.

Localism vs. Nationalism: A Comparative Perspective

Differentiating between localism and nationalism, Salameh critiques nationalism for suppressing regional identities and cultures, as seen in France. In contrast, he commends localism for its celebration of local autonomy and diversity within a larger national context.

Communes and the Concept of Diversity in Nation-States

Salameh addresses the effectiveness and challenges of communes, emphasizing the importance of localism and diversity within nation-states. He notes the limits of communes, particularly when expanded beyond a small scale, and contrasts this with nationalism’s homogenizing tendencies.

Principia Politica: Principles for Decentralized Society

The Principia Politica outlines principles for a decentralized society, proposing innovative concepts such as employee ownership of companies and restrictions on politicians’ salaries. These principles aim to promote social equality and disrupt centralized power structures. The book, with its extensive exploration of political principles, extends beyond Lebanon’s context and aims to prevent individuals from profiting financially from politics.

Application and Implications of the Principia Politica

Some principles from the Principia Politica, like employee shareholding in companies and limits on political lobbying, are being experimented with in Western countries. These principles represent a shift towards prioritizing diversity, individual freedom, and shared responsibility.



The interplay between Lebanon’s economic crisis, the patronage system, and problematic political ideologies presents a complex scenario. Salameh’s insights and the principles of the Principia Politica offer a framework for understanding and addressing these challenges. Adopting decentralized, subsidiarity-based governance models, along with rejecting failed socialist policies, could lead to Lebanon’s recovery and sustainable growth. This comprehensive approach, emphasizing transparency, accountability, and fair competition, is crucial for Lebanon to navigate its current economic and political turmoil.


Notes by: QuantumQuest