New Fire for a New Era:
Amory Lovins introduces the concept of a “new fire” to replace fossil fuels and bring about a secure, sustainable future.

Rocky Mountain Institute’s Goal:
The Rocky Mountain Institute aims to transition the United States away from oil and coal by 2050, relying on efficient energy use and renewable energy sources.

Fossil Fuels: Benefits and Costs:
Fossil fuels have been instrumental in building civilization and creating wealth, but their rising costs in terms of security, economy, health, and environment demand a change.

Shifting from Old Fire to New Fire:
The transition to a clean energy future involves two major shifts: reducing oil dependency and transforming electricity generation.

Electricity and Oil Consumption:
Less than 1% of oil is used for electricity, while 95% of coal is used for electricity generation. Power stations and oil consumption both contribute significantly to fossil carbon emissions.

Efficient Vehicles, Buildings, and Factories:
Improving the efficiency of vehicles, buildings, and factories can save oil and gas while also reducing the need for natural gas, which can then be used to replace oil and coal.

Envisioned Energy System for 2050:
The proposed energy system for 2050 emphasizes efficiency, connectivity, distribution, and a reliance on super-efficient autos, buildings, and factories powered by a secure, resilient electricity grid.

Cost-Effective Transition:
Creating the core industries of this new energy era could be significantly cheaper than continuing with business as usual and could support a significantly larger economy.

No Need for Government Intervention:
The transition does not require new inventions, federal taxes, mandates, subsidies, or laws, making it feasible without Washington gridlock.

Benefits for Diverse Stakeholders:
The transition makes sense and generates profits for businesses, enhances national security, addresses climate and environmental concerns, and improves public health.

Expanding Boundaries for Problem-Solving:
Adopting a broad perspective by integrating all energy-using sectors and various types of innovation can lead to synergistic solutions and disruptive business opportunities.

Hidden Costs of Oil Dependence:
America spends $2 billion per day on oil, with hidden costs of $4 billion per day due to macroeconomic factors, price volatility, and military expenses related to oil security. The total annual cost of oil dependence, including hidden costs, exceeds $2 trillion.

Oil Dependence and Military Involvement:
The US military incurs significant costs to protect oil interests in the Persian Gulf, which exceeds the cost of oil imports from the region. Military spending on oil-related missions rivals Cold War levels.

The Need for Oil-Free Autos:
Automobiles are responsible for three-fifths of mobility fuel consumption. Two-thirds of the energy needed to move a typical car is due to its weight, exacerbated by the rise in obesity.

Ultra-Light Materials and Electric Propulsion:
Ultra-light, ultra-strong materials like carbon fiber composites can significantly reduce vehicle weight. Lighter vehicles require less energy to move, enabling the use of smaller, lighter, and cheaper electric propulsion systems. Electric autos can match the sticker price of today’s cars while offering lower operating costs.

Feebate Programs:
Feebate programs, which provide rebates for efficient vehicles and impose fees on inefficient ones, can accelerate the shift towards fuel-efficient vehicles. European feebate programs have tripled the rate of improvement in automotive efficiency.

The Shift to Electric Autos:
The transition to electric autos will revolutionize the automotive industry, similar to the shift from typewriters to computers. Electric autos offer improved efficiency, lower operating costs, and reduced emissions.

Global Leadership in Automotive Innovation:
Germany is currently leading the automotive revolution, with Volkswagen and BMW announcing plans for mass production of carbon fiber plug-in hybrids and electric cars. Audi aims to surpass these companies by introducing similar vehicles even sooner.

Advanced Manufacturing Technologies:
New manufacturing technologies can produce carbon fiber components quickly and cost-effectively. These technologies can reduce the capital required for automaking and simplify the manufacturing process.

Fuel Savings in Larger Vehicles:
Walmart saved 60% of the fuel in its truck fleet through technological improvements and logistical changes. Technological fuel savings in larger vehicles can reach two-thirds, with further efficiency gains possible through advancements in aviation.

Military Revolution and Energy Efficiency:
The military is undergoing a revolution in energy efficiency, which will drive advancements in civilian technologies. The civilian economy uses significantly more oil than the military, providing leverage for widespread energy efficiency gains.

National Security Benefits of Reducing Oil Dependence:
Reducing oil dependence enhances national security by reducing the need for military interventions to protect oil interests. The military benefits from reduced missions and increased energy efficiency.

How to Reduce Needless Driving:
Charge real-time driving infrastructure costs per mile, not per gallon. Use smart IT to enhance transit, enable car sharing, and ride sharing. Allow lucrative smart growth real estate models. Use intelligent transportation systems to make traffic free flowing.

Benefits of Reducing Needless Driving:
Same or better access with 46 to 84% less driving. Save another $.4 trillion plus another $.3 trillion from using trucks more productively.

Assumptions for a Far More Mobile US Economy in 40 Years:
No oil is used. Cars will have 125 to 240 mile per gallon equivalent and can run on electricity, hydrogen fuel cells, or advanced biofuels. Trucks and airplanes can run on hydrogen or advanced biofuels. Biofuels can be grown without using cropland, harming climate, or soil fertility.

Institutional Acupuncture:
Identify where business logic is congested and not flowing properly. Implement small changes to get it flowing. Work with partners to transform key sectors.

Peak Oil:
Oil is becoming uncompetitive even at low prices. World oil use is expected to peak in about five years.

Electrified Autos and Smart Grids:
Electrified autos can contribute to grid stability and flexibility through smart vehicle-to-grid interactions, enabling efficient integration of renewable energy sources.

Convergence of Oil and Electricity:
Electrified autos merge the issue of oil dependence with the need for electricity savings and innovative electricity generation.

Energy Efficiency Potential:
Buildings and industries have significant untapped energy efficiency potential, promising substantial cost savings and reduced environmental impact.

Integrative Design:
Integrative design can lead to greater energy savings and cost reductions compared to traditional approaches.

Empire State Building Retrofit:
Retrofit project achieved significant energy savings through integrative design, including window upgrades, lighting improvements, and chiller renovation.

Motor Energy Savings:
Optimizing motor systems, particularly pumps and fans, can yield substantial energy savings and cost reductions.

Pumping Loop Redesign:
Redesigning pumping loops with shorter, straighter pipes can save up to 86% of pumping energy and reduce construction costs.

Compounding Energy Savings:
Energy savings in motor systems can lead to significant reductions in fuel consumption, emissions, and costs throughout the electricity supply chain.

Industrial Energy Savings:
Integrative design has identified substantial energy savings opportunities in industrial settings, valued at over $30 billion.

Energy Efficiency Gains:
Energy efficiency retrofits can save 30-60% of energy, while new facility designs can save 40-90% with lower capital costs. Increased efficiency leads to reduced electricity use, easing the transition to renewable energy sources.

Renewables Dominance:
Solar and wind power have become cost-effective and are rapidly expanding, driven by falling prices and technological advancements. Renewables have attracted significant private investments and are surpassing nuclear capacity additions globally.

Declining Nuclear Power:
Nuclear power plants face financial challenges and lack private capital due to high costs and risks. The rise of renewables and micropower has reduced the share of nuclear power in global electricity generation.

Eliminating Coal-Fired Power Plants:
Various options exist to phase out coal-fired power plants, including energy efficiency, efficient gas plants, wind power, and solar cells. Energy efficiency alone can save 65% of coal-fired electricity, while combining it with other options can eliminate the need for old coal plants. Wind power and other renewables can displace coal power several times over, making the transition to cleaner energy sources feasible.

Profitable Non-Nuclear Alternatives to Coal and Nuclear Power:
Non-nuclear methods can displace coal power 23 times and coal plus nuclear 16 times. Efficiency measures can reduce the peak load demand.

Reliability of Variable Renewable Energy Sources:
Coal and nuclear plants also experience downtime. Grids can handle the forecastable variations in solar and wind power. Smart charging and discharging of electric vehicles can help manage fluctuations.

Diversifying Renewable Energy Sources:
A mix of wind, solar, and other renewable sources can provide reliable power. Flexible demand and dispatchable renewables can complement variable renewables. Examples of regions with high renewable energy integration: Texas, Minnesota, Portugal, Denmark, Spain.

Advantages of Distributed Renewables:
Distributed renewables offer the cheapest and most reliable option. They are less vulnerable to cascading blackouts and other risks.

Reinventing Fire Study:
Four electricity futures with similar net present valued cost over 40 years. Scenarios range from business as usual to distributed renewables. Distributed renewables have lower climate, financial, technology, and blackout risks.

Efficient Use and Diverse Supply:
Efficient use and diverse, dispersed, renewable supply are revolutionizing the electricity system, shifting the focus from traditional fossil fuel-based generation to sustainable and cost-effective alternatives.

Redefining Utility Rewards:
Moving away from rewarding utilities for selling more electricity, regulators are now incentivizing strategies that reduce customers’ bills, leading to a shift towards energy efficiency, renewables, and distributed generation.

Renewable Electricity:
Studies confirm the feasibility, reliability, and cost-effectiveness of achieving 80 to 100% renewable electricity, addressing climate change, nuclear proliferation, energy insecurity, and energy poverty.

Reinventing Fire:
Combining the electricity and oil revolutions, efficient buildings and factories, and direct use of efficiently burned fuels presents an opportunity to reinvent fire, transitioning away from fossil fuels and unlocking a new era of clean, sustainable energy.

Economic and Environmental Benefits:
Reinventing fire can lead to significant savings, reduced risks, and a substantial reduction in fossil carbon emissions, offering a cost-effective and environmentally conscious solution to the energy problem.

Technological Advancements and Innovation:
Rocky Mountain Institute’s implementation initiatives are aiding companies in adopting these energy-efficient and sustainable practices, driving technological advancements and fostering innovation.

Transformative Change:
The shift towards a sustainable energy future is not only a significant business opportunity but also a profound transformation in human history, promising a new era of clean, abundant, and enduring energy.