Introduction:
Amory Lovins, a renowned physicist and environmental scientist, was introduced as the speaker for the Wrigley Lecture Series on Sustainability.

Speaker’s Background:
Lovins has worked in energy policy and related areas for four decades and is known for his advocacy of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. He has received numerous awards and accolades, including being named one of Time Magazine’s 100 most influential people in 2009.

Energy Strategies: The Road Not Taken:
Harvey Bryan, who introduced Lovins, highlighted a significant article by Lovins published in 1976 called “Energy Strategies: The Road Not Taken.” This article, published in Foreign Affairs, laid out a plan for a clean energy future, emphasizing energy efficiency and renewable energy sources.

Personal Experience with Lovins:
Bryan shared his personal experience as a graduate student at the University of California, Berkeley, where he had the opportunity to attend Lovins’ lectures and participate in seminars and discussions. He described Lovins as a transformational figure who inspired him and many others to pursue careers in energy and sustainability.

Lovins’ Upcoming Presentation:
Lovins expressed excitement about sharing the results of a year and a half of effort by 61 individuals at Rocky Mountain Institute. The presentation would focus on a comprehensive plan for a clean energy future, addressing the challenges and opportunities in the energy sector.

Old Fire to New Fire:
The world’s energy system needs a transformation, moving from fossil fuels (the old fire) to a new fire that is safe, secure, healthy, and durable.

The Challenge:
The current energy system is inefficient, disconnected, aging, dirty, and insecure, with rising costs to security, economy, health, and the environment.

The Four Pillars of Change:
The transition requires changes in two big stories: oil and electricity, which account for most of the fossil carbon emissions. It involves four sectors (transport, buildings, industry, and electricity) and four types of innovation (technology, public policy, design, and strategy).

Benefits of the New Fire:
The United States can get off oil and coal by 2050, using a third less natural gas, and still have a 158% bigger economy. This transition can be cheaper than business as usual, saving $5 trillion in net present value. It can be done without new federal taxes, subsidies, mandates, or laws, and without any new inventions.

Starting with Autos:
Reducing oil dependence should start with autos, which use about half of the oil. Two-thirds of the energy needed to move a typical car is caused by its weight. Focusing on car physics and designing vehicles that are lighter, more efficient, and use less energy can significantly reduce oil consumption.

Energy Efficiency:
Every unit of energy saved at the wheels by reducing weight, drag, or rolling resistance saves six units of energy. Reducing car weight reduces fuel consumption by seven units at the tank.

Lightweight Materials:
New materials like carbon fiber composites are very light and strong. These materials can be used to make cars lighter and simpler to build.

Electric Propulsion:
Lighter cars need less force to move, allowing for smaller engines. Electric propulsion systems require fewer and less costly batteries or fuel cells.

Cost-effectiveness:
The use of lightweight materials, structural manufacturing techniques, and electric propulsion can reduce the sticker price of cars to today’s level. The driving cost per mile is lower from the start.

Policy Support:
A policy called a feebate can be used to promote the adoption of efficient vehicles. Feebates provide rebates for efficient new vehicles and impose fees on inefficient ones. This policy is running in five European countries and Singapore.

Technological Advancements in Electric Vehicles:
The shift to electric autos promises significant advancements, similar to the transition from typewriters to computers. Germany is currently leading this revolution, with Volkswagen and BMW ramping up production of efficient electric and hybrid vehicles.

Benefits of Vehicle Fitness:
Reducing vehicle weight (“taking the obesity out of the car”) improves fuel efficiency and enables more affordable electrification. Lightening vehicles through material innovations, such as carbon fiber, enhances safety and crash energy absorption.

U.S. Automotive Industry Opportunities:
American industry has the potential to contribute to this revolution, particularly in the area of lightweight materials. Carbon fiber technology enables rapid production of complex parts, saving capital and improving safety. Lighter vehicles reduce fuel consumption and decrease dependence on foreign oil.

Harnessing Domestic Resources:
The potential savings from ultralighting vehicles equate to 1.5 Saudis or half of OPEC’s production. These “nega-barrels” are domestic, secure, carbon-free, and inexhaustible.

Extending the Benefits to Heavy Vehicles:
The same principles and business logic apply to heavy vehicles, such as trucks used by companies like Walmart. Walmart has already achieved significant fuel savings through efficiency improvements.

Conclusion:
The shift to electric autos and the adoption of lightweight materials have the potential to revolutionize the automotive industry, enhance safety, reduce oil consumption, and create domestic energy resources.

Transportation Efficiency and Fuel Savings:
Technical advancements can triple the fuel efficiency of heavy trucks and significantly improve the efficiency of airplanes. Combined with military-driven R&D, these innovations can lead to substantial fuel savings in the civilian sector.

Smarter Vehicle Usage and Congestion Reduction:
By employing smart grid concepts to manage traffic flow, idle people, vehicles, and roads can be reduced. Four proven techniques (road infrastructure charging, public transport enhancement, car and ride sharing, and smart growth models) can reduce driving and save trillions of dollars.

Eliminating Oil Dependency:
Achieving mobility without oil involves a two-step process: improving efficiency and switching fuels. Efficient vehicles can run on a mix of hydrogen, electricity, and advanced biofuels, eliminating the need for oil. The required biofuel can be sustainably produced without harming cropland or the environment.

Institutional Acupuncture:
To accelerate the transition away from oil, strategic partnerships with key players like Ford, Walmart, and the Pentagon can be leveraged to influence change.

Peak Oil Demand:
Analysts are recognizing the decline of oil demand due to increasing competitiveness of alternative fuels, even at low prices.

Convergence of Auto and Electricity Industries:
Electrified autos can contribute to grid flexibility and distributed storage, facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources.

Electricity Savings and Generation:
Widespread energy waste and rapid advancements in energy-saving technologies create a growing reserve of unbought megawatts. As buildings and industries adopt efficient measures, the need for electricity generation decreases, leading to a more sustainable energy landscape.

Changing Electricity Generation:
With reduced demand, changing how electricity is generated becomes more manageable. Shifting towards renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, aligns with the technological advancements and societal changes of the 21st century.

Amory Lovins’ Predictions on Electricity Use:
U.S. electricity consumption could decrease by 1% annually, despite the expected growth in electric vehicles. Electricity and gasoline usage have been declining since 2007, even during economic growth. In 2012, electricity usage adjusted for GDP decreased by 3.4%.

Energy Efficiency Opportunities:
Buildings, consuming 75% of electricity, can triple or quadruple their energy productivity. Industry can double its energy productivity, resulting in significant cost savings. Achieving these improvements by 2050 is feasible by adopting energy-efficient practices already implemented in the Pacific Northwest.

Integrative Design as a Key Innovation:
Integrative design often reduces costs associated with energy savings, turning diminishing returns into expanding returns. Example: Empire State Building retrofit saved 40% energy, reducing peak cooling load and capital costs.

Cost-Effective Deep Retrofits:
A 48-year-old federal office building in Denver is expected to save 70% energy after retrofitting, surpassing the efficiency of new U.S. office buildings.

Amory Lovins’ Personal Experience:
His house in Colorado, built following the European passive house movement, requires no heating and has normal construction costs. The house has a central atrium with insulation equivalent to 14 glass sheets but costs less than three. The house grows banana crops despite being located at 7,100 feet and experiencing harsh weather conditions.

Energy Savings in Buildings:
New techniques can drastically reduce energy consumption in buildings. A retrofitted house achieved a 97% saving on pumping energy by optimizing pipe design. Integrative design maximizes the benefits from each energy-related expense.

Energy Efficiency in Industry:
Pumps, a major electricity consumer, can be optimized to reduce energy usage significantly. Redesigns of industrial systems have resulted in snowballing energy savings. Retrofits often yield 30-60% energy savings with short paybacks, while new facilities can achieve even greater savings.

Renewable Energy Sources:
China leads the explosive growth and plummeting costs of photovoltaic modules and wind farms. In good US sites, these renewable sources already beat new combined cycle gas plants on levelized cost. Costs of solar systems are falling, making them more accessible and competitive.

Virtual Utilities and Grid Defection:
Combining unregulated products can create virtual utilities that bypass traditional power companies. Grid parity for distributed solar power and storage is approaching, enabling grid defection. This trend presents challenges for utilities but also offers new business opportunities.

Collaboration and Competition:
RMI’s electricity practice works with both attackers (new entrants) and defenders (incumbent utilities). Competition in the energy sector drives innovation and benefits consumers.

Worldwide Growth of Renewable Energy:
Since 2008, half of the new generating capacity added each year has been renewable, primarily wind and solar photovoltaic. Renewable energy sources have received significant investments, with over 80 billion watts added in each of the past three years.

Advantages of Renewable Energy:
Renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, can be deployed quickly and at a lower cost compared to traditional power plants. Solar photovoltaic plants can be built in a series, with each plant producing more electricity each year than a traditional power plant would produce in 10 years.

China’s Renewable Energy Progress:
In 2012, China generated more electricity from non-hydro renewables than from all coal and nuclear sources combined. China has more solar jobs than the United States and has added more solar cells than the United States, despite the fact that the United States invented solar cells.

Decline of Coal and Nuclear Power:
Worldwide orders for coal and nuclear power plants are decreasing due to a lack of business case. Nuclear power has been losing net capacity even before the Fukushima accident.

Reliability of Renewable Energy:
The notion that coal and nuclear power are necessary to keep the lights on is incorrect. Both coal and nuclear plants are variable in their output, while solar and wind power can be managed through grid flexibility and energy storage.

Variable Does Not Mean Unreliable:
Variable energy sources like wind and solar power can be unreliable, but they are not necessarily unreliable. France’s wind power output during a stormy winter month is shown as an example of how variable energy sources can be accurately forecasted. Grids are designed to back up intermittent energy sources like wind and solar power with more reliable sources like natural gas or coal-fired power plants.

Reliability of Renewable Energy:
The National Renewable Energy Lab has demonstrated the feasibility of running a fully reliable 80-90% renewable U.S. power system. Smaller areas, like the isolated grid of Texas, can also rely on renewable energy sources. In 2050, Texas could meet its energy needs with 86% renewable energy from wind and solar, and 14% from dispatchable renewable sources like geothermal, small hydro, and biomass.

Matching Supply and Demand:
The simulation of Texas’s energy needs shows a mismatch between the variable supply of renewable energy and the demand for electricity. This mismatch results in both surpluses and deficits of electricity.

Distributed Storage and Smart Demand Management:
Excess renewable energy can be stored in ice storage, air conditioning systems, and electric vehicles. This distributed storage can be utilized during periods of low renewable output, ensuring a reliable electricity supply. Smart charging and discharging of electric vehicles can also contribute to grid stability.

Renewable Energy Success Stories:
Countries like Germany, Denmark, Scotland, Spain, Portugal, Iowa, South Dakota, Texas, and the Big Island in Hawaii have successfully integrated significant amounts of renewable energy into their electricity grids. These regions demonstrate the reliability and feasibility of high renewable energy penetration without compromising grid stability.

Shift Towards Distributed Generation:
Denmark has transitioned from large coal-fired power plants to a decentralized system of wind and biomass generation, owned by local communities. This distributed generation model enhances grid resilience and reduces the risk of cascading failures.

The American Grid:
The aging and vulnerable American grid needs to be replaced by 2050. Replacing the grid with various options (more of the same, nuclear, centralized renewables, or distributed renewables) costs approximately the same. However, these options differ significantly in terms of risks related to national security, technology, fuel, water, finance, climate, and health.

Risks and Benefits of Distributed Generation:
A centralized grid is prone to cascading blackouts caused by various events like natural disasters or cyberattacks. Distributed generators organized into microgrids can enhance grid resilience and mitigate these risks. Microgrids can operate independently, providing power even during grid outages. This resilient grid architecture promotes national and community security, customer choice, innovation, and entrepreneurial opportunities.

Summary:
A combination of energy efficiency measures and diverse, dispersed, or distributed renewable energy sources can provide a reliable, resilient, and sustainable electricity system. Distributed storage, smart demand management, and microgrids play crucial roles in achieving this goal. Countries and regions worldwide have demonstrated the feasibility of high renewable energy penetration, challenging the notion of reliability concerns. A shift towards distributed generation enhances grid resilience and reduces the risk of cascading failures. Replacing the aging American grid with distributed renewables offers the same cost as other options but with significantly reduced risks.

The Energy Transformation:
Resilient renewable energy sources are revolutionizing the energy sector, shifting focus from conventional power plants to efficiency, demand response, renewables, and smart grids.

Efficiency and Cost-Effectiveness:
In states where utilities are rewarded for reducing energy bills, investments rapidly shift towards cost-effective solutions such as efficiency, demand response, and distributed storage.

Energy Future as a Choice:
Contrary to past assumptions, the energy needed to drive economic growth can be significantly reduced. With technological advancements and integrated design, efficiency can be tripled at a fraction of the previous cost.

Reimagining Energy:
Combining the electricity and oil revolutions, we can transition away from uneconomical fossil fuels and nuclear energy by 2050, leading to economic growth, reduced carbon emissions, and enhanced energy security.

Common Ground through Outcomes:
Focusing on desired outcomes, rather than motives, can create a unifying solution to energy challenges. The best solutions often align with global problems that threaten security and prosperity.

Rocky Mountain Institute’s Role:
The Rocky Mountain Institute supports companies and organizations in adopting sustainable energy practices through sectoral initiatives and projects. It also collaborates with countries like China to inform policy and planning.

Overcoming Resistance:
Despite progress, resistance to change persists. However, as Edgar Willard noted, firms hindered by outdated thinking will eventually face obsolescence.

A New Fire:
The transformation underway is not just a business opportunity but a significant shift in human history. The new energy sources are abundant, clean, and flowing from above, unlike traditional fossil fuels.

Main Points:
Amory Lovins describes his vision for a new era of energy that is local, permanent, free, and flameless. He believes this new fire can make energy work for us without causing harm. Lovins highlights the importance of ecosystem services, such as nutrient cycling, water cycling, pollination, and climate regulation, which are essential for human life and economic activity. He emphasizes that the economy is a subset of the environment, not the other way around. Lovins criticizes prevalent economic theories that ignore the biological context and physical laws, leading to a false belief that economic law can overcome physical law. He calls this a brain disease called economic theory. Lovins recalls meeting Bill Clinton at a Rocky Mountain Institute event and later interviewing his father, who mentioned Lovins’ precocious reading ability at a young age. Lovins explains his decision to drop out of Harvard halfway through due to the university’s attempt to restrict his studies. He transferred to Oxford as a graduate student and eventually secured a Junior Research Fellowship, which allowed him to pursue his research interests. Lovins reveals that he faced resistance from Oxford to pursue a doctorate in energy in 1971, as it was not considered a legitimate academic subject. He ultimately resigned the fellowship to focus on his work on energy.

Motivations for Studying Energy:
Lovins recognized the impending energy crisis in the early 1970s, driven by economic and political factors, including climate change and nuclear proliferation.

End-Use-Least-Cost Approach:
Lovins’ research focused on determining the most cost-effective way to meet energy needs, considering the desired job, amount, quality, scale, and source of energy. This approach shifted the focus from energy production to energy efficiency and led to a paradigm shift in the field.

Leaving Oxford to Work on Energy:
Despite a promising academic career at Oxford, Lovins left to pursue his passion for addressing the energy crisis.

Collaboration with Dave Brower:
Lovins met Dave Brower, a prominent environmentalist, while pursuing his interest in mountaineering and photography. This connection led to his involvement in opposing a copper mining project in Wales, which resulted in the preservation of the national park.

Global Mining Industry Leadership:
Rio Tinto, initially opposed to Lovins’ efforts to protect the Welsh national park, later became a leading advocate for greening the global mining industry. This transformation highlights the long-term impact of collaborative efforts in addressing environmental challenges.

Key Concepts:
Systems Thinking: Understanding the interconnectedness of things and avoiding the Cartesian reductionist fallacy. Eclectic Learning: Embracing diverse disciplines and making new connections. Silo Busting: Breaking down artificial boundaries between disciplines and fostering cross-disciplinary collaboration. Holistic Approach: Integrating various perspectives to gain a comprehensive understanding.

Systems Thinking and Interconnectedness:
Lovins emphasizes the importance of understanding the interconnectedness of things, drawing inspiration from nature and his diverse interests. He critiques the Cartesian reductionist approach, which involves breaking down complex systems into smaller parts, as it fails to capture the true dynamics of such systems.

Eclectic Learning and Breaking Boundaries:
Lovins advocates for eclectic learning, acquiring knowledge across various disciplines, and encouraging intellectual curiosity. He believes that a deep understanding of diverse fields enables individuals to make novel connections and generate innovative ideas. Lovins challenges the notion of strict disciplinary boundaries and encourages individuals to explore different intellectual territories.

Importance of Holistic Thinking:
Lovins stresses the value of integrating various perspectives and disciplines to gain a comprehensive understanding of complex issues. He highlights the need for individuals who can bridge disciplines and make new connections, especially in addressing global challenges. Lovins cites the example of China’s progress in clean energy and environmental policies as a result of holistic thinking and collaboration.

Inspiration and Current Work:
Lovins expresses excitement about the ongoing work at Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), particularly the progress made in China. He recounts an anecdote involving a meeting with Chinese officials, where they shared a moment of laughter over their initial encounter. Lovins acknowledges the positive changes happening in China and remains optimistic about the potential for further advancements.

Book Publication and Translation:
Amory Lovins’ book, “Natural Capitalism,” caught the attention of Li Baohong, a high-ranking official in the Chinese Communist Party. Li Baohong recognized the book’s potential significance for China and arranged for its translation and publication in China. The book was given a politically acceptable title, “Ziran Zibaludin,” which resonated with various Chinese ideologies and cultural aspects.

Li Baohong’s Personal Connection:
Amory Lovins and Li Baohong developed a personal connection when they realized they shared an interest in Taoism. Li Baohong had previously endured manual labor during the Cultural Revolution.

Book’s Impact on China’s Energy Policy:
After Li Baohong’s death, his former boss, Tong Dalin, continued to promote the book among Chinese leaders. The book’s influence led China to adopt energy efficiency as a top strategic priority for national development.

Current Collaboration:
Amory Lovins and his team are working with Chinese energy organizations and Lawrence Berkeley National Lab to develop the “Reinventing Fire China” scenario. This scenario aims to achieve lower energy use, reduced costs, and decreased carbon emissions and air pollution in China.

Success Factors:
The collaboration’s success is attributed to the high quality and expertise of the individuals involved, many of whom are engineers. The technocratic nature of the Chinese government facilitates the implementation of such initiatives.

Initial Questions and Interests:
The audience admires the speaker’s work and wonders if there’s a chance to participate in the China project or create a pipeline between ASU and China.

Addressing Language Barriers:
The project leader acknowledges the language barriers and the need to find solutions to facilitate effective communication.

Turning Information into Action:
The speaker emphasizes the importance of working with effective institutions and tailoring approaches to specific contexts.

Saul Alinsky’s Principle:
The speaker recommends following Saul Alinsky’s principle of meeting people where they are, addressing their concerns in their language, and being apolitical.

Aikido Politics:
The speaker suggests practicing Aikido politics, which involves honoring others’ beliefs, dancing with them as partners, and focusing on the process rather than the outcome.

Dao Deqing’s Water Analogy:
The speaker cites Dao Deqing’s analogy of water overcoming hardness, emphasizing the power of yielding and entering where there are no cracks.

Addressing Rooftop Photovoltaic Concerns:
The speaker acknowledges concerns raised by power generation companies about the fairness of rooftop photovoltaics.

Net Metering and Bi-Directional Value Tariffs:
Net metering, while beneficial, may not scale effectively at a large scale. To address this, bi-directional value tariffs can be implemented, allowing utilities and customers to compensate each other for the value of services exchanged.

Services Provided by Solar Panels:
Photovoltaics provide more than just kilowatt hours, including on-peak capacity, local resilience, and ancillary services like grid regulation. These services have an ascertainable value that often exceeds the cost of the photovoltaic system.

Benefits of Bi-Directional Value Tariffs:
Proper compensation for the value exchanged enables the scaling up of solar integration. Displaces costly new or replacement infrastructure, providing better service at a lower cost for all customers. Enables providers to make more profit at less risk.

Collaboration Between Incumbents and Insurgents:
Incumbent utilities have several options to create value from the integration of solar energy, such as purchasing solar companies, offering financing, or integrating qualified offerings. Coopetition models can create mutual value for both utilities and vendors.

Smart Utilities Embracing Solar Integration:
There are several smart utilities, both large and small, that are actively working to integrate solar energy and develop innovative business models. Examples include utilities in the Midwest, San Diego, Fort Collins, and Austin.

Electric Vehicles and Road Repair Funding:
The shift to electric vehicles raises concerns about funding for road repairs, as gas tax revenue decreases. Some states, like Washington and Colorado, have implemented a small annual tax on electric vehicles to address this issue.

Policy and Infrastructure Funding:
Lovins proposes charging drivers for road infrastructure usage by the mile instead of through gasoline taxes. This approach addresses the issue of non-drivers subsidizing driver-related costs and ensures that drivers pay for the infrastructure they use. A coalition of AARP, poverty advocates, disabled advocates, and youth advocates could potentially support this policy.

Manufacturing Obstacles and Solutions:
Lovins discusses the challenges faced by auto manufacturers in adopting carbon fiber materials for vehicle production. Technical and economic obstacles, including multiple competing production processes, have hindered widespread use. Reorganizing companies and changing design and manufacturing processes are necessary for successful implementation. Lovins highlights the need for cultural change within the industry to shift from focusing on cost per part or pound to considering the overall cost of the vehicle.

Advice for Sustainability Advocates:
Lovins encourages individuals to focus on making a positive impact in their local communities. He emphasizes the importance of collaboration between private enterprise and civil society to drive change. Lovins suggests that ASU students can contribute to sustainability efforts through their involvement in campus initiatives and sustainability consulting groups.

Decentralized Policymaking:
Lovins acknowledges the significance of decentralized policymaking in energy and infrastructure. He highlights the role of mayors, city councils, and local government entities in making decisions that directly impact energy and sustainability initiatives. Lovins emphasizes the messy nature of local politics but recognizes the importance of civic engagement and collaboration.

Conclusion:
Lovins stresses the importance of working with business to achieve sustainability goals. He believes that lobbying and litigation are less effective than collaborating with private enterprise to implement real-world solutions.