Slowdown in Progress:
Economic growth, real wages, and technological advancements have slowed down in the past quarter century. Moore’s law, which predicted a doubling of computing power every 18 months, no longer applies. Eroom’s law, the opposite of Moore’s law, suggests the price of new biotech drugs doubles every seven years. Theoretical progress in fields like physics has also slowed down compared to the first half of the 20th century.

Technological Stagnation:
Technological progress is now synonymous with information technology, such as the internet, computers, and mobile devices. The smoothness of technological advancements, like the iPhone, is difficult to compare to the absence of transformative technologies, like flying cars. The lack of quantification and difficulty in measuring progress contributes to the lack of discussion around stagnation.

Counterarguments:
Progress is not always linear and smooth, it can take place in fits and starts. The communications revolution, including the internet, has brought significant advancements. Some argue that stagnation is a perception rather than a reality.

Generational Stagnation:
There is a sense of stagnation in politics, culture, and macroeconomics. The younger generation feels they will not do better than their parents, breaking the generational compact. Progressivism in politics and society has diminished.

Science and Technology as a Trap:
Some argue that science and technology are dangerous and can lead to negative consequences. Nuclear weapons and the threat of global destruction serve as an example of this danger. Other areas like AI, climate change, and environmental degradation also raise concerns.

mRNA Vaccine and Gain-of-Function Research:
The mRNA vaccine is an impressive breakthrough in biotech, but it highlights the proximity of dangerous research like gain-of-function conducted at the Wuhan lab.

Technological Advancements: A Double-Edged Sword:
Technological and scientific progress can be both beneficial and dangerous, creating a double-edged sword. While these advancements have led to remarkable innovations, they also carry potential risks and unforeseen consequences.

Accelerationism vs. Regulation:
Thiel advocates for continued acceleration of technological development, emphasizing the importance of deregulation and innovation. However, he acknowledges the need for balance, as excessive acceleration without proper regulation can lead to catastrophic outcomes.

Cancer Research and Biotechnological Progress:
Despite the desire for progress in fields like cancer research and biotechnology, societal fears and concerns about potential dangers have hindered rapid advancements.

Nuclear Power and Dual-Use Technologies:
The debate surrounding nuclear power plants highlights the dual-use nature of certain technologies, where civilian applications can have military implications. This overlap creates a complex dilemma, as separating civilian and military uses can be challenging.

Reptile Brain Response to Technological Advancements:
Beyond visible reasons like regulation, there exists a deep-rooted, subconscious fear of technology and science, akin to a “reptile brain” response. This fear may contribute to society’s willingness to accept slower technological progress.

Dystopian Science Fiction and Technological Logic:
Thiel observes a shift in science fiction literature, with modern works often depicting dystopian and depressing futures. This reflects a growing cultural awareness of the potential dangers inherent in unchecked scientific and technological advancements.

China’s Economic Growth and Failed Democratization:
In 1996, analysts predicted that China would transition to a democracy by 2015 due to its impressive economic growth. However, this prediction failed to materialize, raising questions about the correlation between economic growth and democratic development.

China’s Learning from the Fall of the Berlin Wall:
Thiel suggests that China learned from the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, adopting a strategy of economic liberalization without political liberalization. This approach, known as “perestroika without glasnost,” allowed China to maintain economic growth while preserving its authoritarian political system.

2015: A Turning Point for China-US Relations:
China’s great firewall effectively restricted the presence of major US internet companies in China since 2005. The idea that China would eventually open up to US tech companies was prevalent in Silicon Valley circa 2005-2010, but it lacked a solid basis.

Xi Jinping’s Ideology:
Xi Jinping’s 2013 speech to the Central Committee expressed his belief in communism and the eventual demise of capitalism. Analysts discovered this speech in 2020, highlighting the importance of taking China’s communist ideology seriously.

China’s Unique Political System:
China’s political system is a blend of communism and fascism, with a gerontocratic leadership structure. Unlike early 20th-century fascist and communist movements, which were youth-driven, China is characterized by older leaders. China’s communist ideology appears less idealistic and ideological compared to the Soviet Union.

Grand Strategy:
Peter Thiel emphasized the need for a comprehensive grand strategy to address the challenges posed by China’s rising power and ideological differences.

Our Current Strategy Won’t Work Against China:
The United States has historically relied on superior material production to win conflicts, but this strategy will not work against China. We cannot outproduce or outspend China.

Our Only Hope is to Out-Innovate China:
We need to out-innovate China to win a conflict with them. However, we have locked down innovation to some extent.

Framing the Conflict as a US vs. China Conflict is Self-Defeating:
Peter Thiel believes that framing the conflict as solely between the US and China is self-defeating. China has a four times larger population, so we need to out-innovate and prevent them from stealing our innovations.

China’s Nationalistic Communism Limits Its Ability to Gain Allies:
China’s communism is nationalistic, socialistic, and doesn’t win allies. It is also racist and xenophobic, which further limits its ability to gain support from other countries.

The West Needs to Work Together to Counter China:
The United States needs to work with its allies to counter China. The Trump administration’s unilateral approach was necessary, but the Biden administration’s more multilateral approach is also needed.

The West’s Entanglement with China is a Problem:
The West’s entanglement with China through trade and other means is a problem. We need to reduce our entanglement with China, especially in key areas like trade.

California’s Role in the Competition with China:
The discussion did not touch on California’s specific role in the competition with China.

Resource Curse and California:
The resource curse is a phenomenon where countries with an abundance of natural resources experience less economic growth, democracy, and development compared to those with fewer resources. Peter Thiel compares California’s tech industry to oil-rich countries, suggesting that California’s wealth has led to misgovernance.

Economic Success and Governance Failure:
California has a high GDP and a wealthy population, but it also faces significant governance issues. The state’s public schools are failing, and there are numerous government worker rackets.

Comparison to Oil Countries:
Thiel compares California to oil-rich countries, such as Saudi Arabia, in terms of misgovernance. He highlights the similarities between Saudi Arabia’s Wahhabi ideology and California’s woke ideology.

Inefficient Redistribution of Wealth:
Thiel explains that the resource curse leads to inefficient redistribution of wealth. In California, this includes overpaid government workers, with the average government worker earning twice as much as their private sector counterparts.

Housing Market Distortion:
Inflated real estate values are a result of the inefficient redistribution of wealth. High-paying tech jobs and government salaries drive up housing prices, making them unaffordable for many residents.

The Inefficient Redistribution of Tech Wealth:
In the US, government workers, especially in California, receive significantly higher salaries and benefits than their private sector counterparts. Zoning laws in tech hubs like San Francisco and Silicon Valley favor landlords, leading to inflated real estate prices and a high cost of living. The middle class in California has been largely replaced due to the high cost of living and the influx of tech workers.

Political Implications:
California’s political landscape is characterized by a D+30 state, with Democrats dominating due to the support from government workers and tech companies. Democratic candidates like Newsom and Harris promote woke identity politics and political correctness, which may not resonate with the rest of the country. Republicans face the challenge of formulating a compelling agenda that goes beyond simply opposing California’s policies.

Alternatives to California’s Model:
Elizabeth Warren’s progressive policies and Tim Ryan’s emphasis on blue-collar workers may not be effective in addressing the nation’s issues. Bernie Sanders’ and AOC’s socialist ideas are unlikely to gain widespread support.

Republican Strategies for 2024:
Republicans could potentially win the 2024 presidential election by opposing California’s policies and emphasizing the need to prevent the “Californication” of the rest of the country. However, this approach may not be sufficient to address the underlying challenges facing the nation.

The Need for Sustainable Growth:
The younger generation is seeking solutions to economic and social issues that differ from those pursued by previous generations. There is a need to focus on non-inflationary, non-cancerous, and non-apocalyptic growth that addresses the challenges of the modern world. Tax cuts, deregulation, and a serious approach to confronting China are potential elements of a comprehensive growth strategy.

Thiel’s Uncertainty About Beating China:
Thiel is uncertain about whether the same strategies used to overcome the Soviet Union and China in the past will be effective in the future. He acknowledges that the situation is complex and depends on other countries’ cooperation and China’s internal stability.

Thiel’s Approach to Addressing the Challenge:
Thiel emphasizes the need to start with what is known and proven to work. He admits that he does not have a concrete agenda and acknowledges the challenges of developing one.

Thiel’s View of the Right as the Rebel Alliance:
Thiel compares the right to the Rebel Alliance in Star Wars, emphasizing diversity and a lack of rigid conformity. He contrasts this with the left, which he perceives as being in lockstep like Imperial Stormtroopers.

Advantages and Disadvantages of the Rebel Alliance Analogy:
The Rebel Alliance’s advantage lies in its ability to admit uncertainty and engage in vigorous debate to find solutions. The disadvantage is the lack of immediate answers and the need for extensive discussions and debates.

Thiel’s Support for Blake Masters and J.D. Vance:
Thiel’s support for Masters and Vance is partially due to his personal friendship with them. However, he also sees them as potential future leaders who embody qualities and perspectives that the Republican Party should pursue.

American Political Parties:
Peter Thiel criticizes both the Democrats, whom he considers evil, and the Republicans, whom he labels stupid. Thiel praises J.D. Vance and Blake Masters for not fitting squarely into either of these categories.

Classical Liberalism:
Patrick Deneen argues that classical liberalism has failed because it has succeeded in promoting individual liberty, leading to the erosion of civic institutions. George Will suggests that conservatives should focus on conserving the American founding principles.

Critique of Abstract Solutions:
Thiel finds both Deneen’s and Will’s perspectives too abstract and lacking in concrete solutions. He questions the feasibility of returning to the founding principles or starting a new founding.

Technology and Science:
Thiel emphasizes the significant influence of technology and science in driving modernity. He believes we cannot ignore these forces and must find a way to navigate them without negative consequences for society. He criticizes both Deneen and Will for not delving deeply into these technological and scientific questions.

Conclusion:
Thiel argues that we must engage with the challenges of technology and science to avoid self-destruction.

Kennan’s Long Telegram:
George Kennan, a diplomat stationed in Moscow, sent a 5,000-word telegram to the State Department, known as the Long Telegram, just after World War II. The telegram analyzed the nature of the Soviet Union, its strengths and weaknesses, and laid out the policy of containment, which became the fundamental U.S. policy during the Cold War.

Why No Long Telegram about China?:
Peter Thiel questions why there hasn’t been a similar “Long Telegram” about China. Thiel speculates that it’s either because the memo has been lost or because it won’t be coming anytime soon.

Reasons for Lack of Strategy:
Thiel suggests that there is no clear long-term strategy for the U.S. regarding China. He believes that people don’t know how to accelerate progress or overtake China.

Gradual Withdrawal as a Strategy:
Thiel proposes the idea of a gradual U.S. withdrawal from the world as a potential strategy. He acknowledges that articulating such a strategy would be difficult as it could lead to a chaotic retreat.

Articulation of Policy:
Thiel argues that there are some policies that cannot be articulated because the articulation itself can hinder their proper execution. He suggests that containment of China might be one such policy that is best pursued without explicit articulation.

Scylla and Charybdis: The Dilemmas of Growth and Totalitarianism:
In a world of technological advancement and global interconnectedness, we face a dilemma akin to the Greek myth of Scylla and Charybdis. Scylla represents the risk of Armageddon, a potential nuclear war or technological catastrophe, while Charybdis symbolizes endless stagnation, a world devoid of innovation and progress.

The Threat of Armageddon and the Allure of Totalitarianism:
The prospect of Armageddon, though dire, is often overemphasized compared to the threat of totalitarianism, a one-world government that stifles individual liberties and innovation. We must balance our concerns about Armageddon with a recognition of the dangers of totalitarianism, striving to find a middle ground between the two extremes.

The Challenges of Technological Progress and Global Governance:
To mitigate the risk of Armageddon, we must establish robust global governance mechanisms to regulate and monitor scientific research and technological advancements. International cooperation is essential to prevent the misuse of technology and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

The Importance of Growth and the Impact of Zero Growth Policies:
Growth is vital for American society, fostering innovation, opportunity, and a sense of progress. Zero growth policies, as advocated by the Club of Rome in the 1970s, have contributed to nihilism and cultural disintegration, particularly among the middle class.

The Balance Between Growth and Totalitarianism:
We need to find a balance between the risks of Armageddon and totalitarianism, promoting growth while maintaining individual liberties and democratic values. This delicate balance requires careful consideration of the potential consequences of technological advancements and the role of global governance in mitigating risks.

Zero-Growth World’s Issues:
Thiel believes the zero-growth world has not worked well and is not simply decadent, stable, or entropic. He warns of Armageddon catastrophe from unconstrained tech and science and centralizing totalitarian catastrophe from one-world state control.

Economic Growth and Political Polarization:
Thiel suggests that non-inflationary, non-cancerous, non-apocalyptic economic growth could solve many problems, including political bitterness and polarization. He emphasizes that without growth, polarization, nihilism, and anger will persist.

American Courage in History:
Thiel acknowledges historical examples of American courage and leadership in facing challenges. He refers to Franklin Roosevelt’s “rendezvous with destiny” and John Kennedy’s “bear any burden” speeches as examples of courageous leadership.

Navigating Between Catastrophe and Stagnation:
Thiel believes that Armageddon and world government are exclusionary possibilities, not exhaustive ones. He suggests a narrow path between these extremes, where choices matter and agency is needed.

Call for Courage and Agency:
Thiel emphasizes the importance of courage and agency in the current situation. He urges individuals to recognize that their choices matter and that there is a way forward, even if it is narrow and challenging.