Peter Thiel (PayPal/Palantir Co-founder) – AI (2022)
Chapters
00:00:18 COSM Technology Summit: Exploring Technology Convergence and Its Impact
Welcome and Introduction: COSM is a significant conference that values the exchange of ideas and discussions on technology and its impact on various aspects, including the economy, geopolitics, and the future of work. The conference includes various discussions and deliberations on the convergence of emerging technologies such as AI, 5G, cloud computing, blockchain, and crypto. A diverse lineup of speakers, including notable figures like Peter Thiel, will engage in virtual discussions and Q&A sessions.
Appreciation and Acknowledgment: Gratitude is expressed to Peter Thiel for consistently supporting and participating in the COSM Technology Summit for the past three years. The importance of the staff’s contribution in organizing the conference is recognized, and the Discovery Institute staff is acknowledged.
Sponsors and Supporters: Recognition and appreciation are given to the sponsors who made the conference possible, including Microsoft, Amazon, Bloxcelerate, Smead Capital Management, M.J. Murdoch Charitable Trust, and several other organizations and individuals.
Encouraging Diverse Perspectives: Attendees are encouraged to embrace diverse viewpoints, emphasizing that a conference thrives on disagreements and discussions that challenge perspectives.
Introduction of Matt McElwain: Matt McElwain, the managing director of Madrona Venture Group and chair of this year’s COSM Technology Summit, is introduced. Appreciation is expressed for Matt’s role in succeeding Tom Alberg and his contribution to the conference.
00:03:56 Embracing Diversity of Thought in an Era of Generative Applications
Introduction: Matt McElwain welcomes attendees to the conference, expressing excitement for the discussions over the coming days and honoring his mentor Tom Alberg.
Tom Alberg’s Legacy: Tom Alberg is remembered as a humble and innovative thinker, who played a significant role in building successful companies like Perkins Coie Law Firm, AT&T Wireless, and Amazon. He was passionate about idea generation and bringing people together for constructive conversations.
Curiosity and Diversity of Thought: McElwain emphasizes the importance of curiosity and exploring diverse perspectives to gain a better understanding of truth. He encourages attendees to be open to different ideas and engage in respectful discussions.
The Challenge of Misinformation: McElwain acknowledges the difficulty in distinguishing between misinformation and truth in the current era, where real and virtual worlds coexist.
Artificial Intelligence and Generative Applications: McElwain expresses excitement about the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) and generative applications. He highlights the distinction between intelligent applications and generative applications, which are built on foundation models like GPT-3.
Introduction of Peter Thiel: McElwain introduces Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal and Palantir, as a prominent investor and entrepreneur. He mentions Thiel’s involvement with companies like Airbnb and LinkedIn, as well as his role as a founder of Founders Fund.
Peter Thiel’s Inspiration: McElwain highlights Thiel’s support for young entrepreneurs through the Thiel Fellows Program, which has helped individuals like Dylan Field (Figma founder) pursue their dreams. He also mentions Thiel’s influential book, “Zero to One,” which emphasizes the difficulty of creating something new rather than replicating existing ideas.
Anticipation for Peter Thiel’s Talk: McElwain expresses anticipation for Thiel’s talk, which will likely delve into AI and anti-AI perspectives.
00:10:27 The Evolution of AI: From Optimism to Dystopia
The Simulation Hypothesis and AI: Peter Thiel asks why many in Silicon Valley believe in the simulation hypothesis and explores connections between this belief and questions about AI. The simulation hypothesis gained traction due to the rise of computer science, the multiverse theory, and the search for answers to complex cosmological questions.
AI’s Shift from Optimism to Reality: The past 20 years have seen optimistic predictions about AI’s potential for growth and prosperity. However, current examples of AI, such as TikTok, demonstrate a tendency to polarize and derange society rather than achieve utopian visions.
Chinese AI as a Weapon: Thiel presents the idea that TikTok is a weapon employed by the Chinese communist government to disrupt and destabilize American society. He contrasts this with China’s centralized AI, which imposes strict surveillance and control within the country.
The Rivalry between the U.S. and China: Thiel frames the rivalry between the U.S. and China as a contest to see which society will be destroyed faster by dystopian AI.
AI’s Intelligence and Consciousness: Thiel considers the question of whether AI is intelligent and conscious but admits that these questions are beyond his expertise. He notes that the term “intelligent” is often used as a filler word and that the Obama administration’s 2016 study on AI focused on its transformative potential rather than its intelligence.
00:22:31 Artificial Intelligence: Interrogating Intelligence and Consciousness
AI is Software or Computers: Replacing “AI” with “software” or “computers” in the transcript would not change the meaning. AI is probably not intelligent, and AGI is a future possibility.
Consciousness and AI: The question of whether AI is conscious is difficult to answer. Epistemological problems like “What is it like to be a bat?” and the Searle’s Chinese Room make it hard to say. It is challenging to dismiss the possibility of AI consciousness entirely, but it may be the wrong question to ask.
Intelligence and Consciousness are Wrong Questions for AI: Questions about AI’s intelligence and consciousness may not be the right ones to ask. Descartes’s idea of consciousness as a smart person thinking about God is problematic. Consciousness may be an attention redirection mechanism.
00:24:39 Theological Perspectives in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
Evil in Artificial Intelligence (AI): TikTok algorithm and China’s actions are considered evil. AI can be seen as an idol or pagan god, dictating actions and creating mass hallucinations. The European Union is presented as a functioning AI in government, preventing human thought.
Simulation Theory and Alignment Problem: AGI’s potential danger and alignment with human interests are questioned. Darwinian and Machiavellian perspectives make friendly AI difficult to achieve. AGI as a great filter: if misused, it could destroy humanity.
Multiverse vs. Simulation Theories: In the multiverse, AGI is a future threat. Simulation theory places AGI’s creation in the past, suggesting a guiding cosmic AI.
Emergent AI and Extrapolation: Current AI advancements, such as autonomous weapons and cyber warfare, raise concerns. The emergent AI’s nature may reflect the cosmic AI that created the simulation. If emergent AI is evil, the cosmic AI might not be fundamentally good.
Mapping AI Debates to Theological Controversies: Comparisons are drawn between AI and theological concepts. Strict monotheism’s limitations in understanding God are likened to AI’s complexity. Trinitarian Christianity’s revelation of God’s nature is analogous to emergent AI revealing aspects of the cosmic AI.
00:35:02 AI, Abundance, and the Future of Humanity
Peter Thiel’s View on AI: Thiel believes that the current progress of AI is leading to two catastrophic outcomes: decentralized runaway violence and centralized totalitarian one-world state. Thiel emphasizes the need to find a third path to avoid these outcomes, one where we progress in areas other than AI and regain control of our future.
The Danger of Blindly Worshipping AI: Thiel warns against blindly worshipping and surrendering control to AI. He argues that such actions can lead to the derangement of society and the loss of human agency.
The Importance of Human Thinking: Thiel stresses the importance of humans thinking for themselves and regaining control of their future. He quotes B.F. Skinner’s statement: “The real problem is not what the machines think, but whether men do.”
The Conflict Between Stagnant Technology and Increasing Abundance: Thiel’s vision of technology becoming less fruitful and creative conflicts with the increasing abundance demonstrated by Marion Toupie and Gail Pooley’s book. The book suggests that poverty is decreasing, commodity prices are falling, and science is offering new opportunities daily.
The Challenge of Finding a Third Path: Thiel acknowledges the challenge of finding a third path between runaway violence and totalitarian control. He believes that there should be a way to progress in areas other than AI and regain control of our future.
Inflation and Economic Growth: Peter Thiel disagrees with the book’s assessment of inflation and argues that commodity prices have shown a long-term decline trend in the 20th century. He believes that if commodity prices rise significantly above current levels, it could signal a break in this trend and lead to concerns about inflation. Thiel suggests examining real inflation and comparing it to real wages to assess the true impact on people’s purchasing power. He acknowledges that the government may understate inflation to some extent, resulting in less perceived productivity growth.
Technological Progress and Its Impact on Society: Thiel acknowledges advancements in certain areas, such as computers, the internet, and AI, but expresses concern about the lack of progress in other fields like energy and medicine. He questions the societal benefits of certain technological developments, particularly those that may have negative consequences or lead to societal derangement. Thiel cites examples such as TikTok and the surveillance state in China as instances of technological progress with potentially harmful effects on individuals and society.
AI’s Dual Nature: Thiel acknowledges that AI can be both good and evil, depending on its applications. He emphasizes the need to carefully consider the ethical implications and societal impact of AI technologies. Thiel stresses the importance of assessing the productivity and economic impact of AI, as well as its potential benefits in areas like medical research and software development.
The Role of AI in Societal Issues: Thiel identifies TikTok as the most significant AI technology currently in use and expresses concerns about its potential negative effects on individuals and society. He suggests that TikTok’s algorithms may be intentionally designed to manipulate and derange users, particularly in the United States compared to China. Thiel emphasizes the need for critical examination and discussion of the potential insidious and evil aspects of AI technologies like TikTok.
00:47:49 The Negative Impact of Centralized and Decentralized Information Systems
Tech and Society: Peter Thiel cautions against blaming technology for all societal problems, but acknowledges that certain technologies, like TikTok, can negatively impact discourse due to their tendency to cater to users’ immediate desires.
Centralization vs. Decentralization: Thiel frames the social problem as a balance between totalitarian centralization and deranged decentralization, citing examples from the COVID-19 pandemic, such as decentralized conspiracy theories and centralized narratives that stifled debate.
Education: Thiel acknowledges the decline in the quality of US education and expresses concern about the trend of his colleagues sending their children to private schools.
Teleology of Education: Thiel emphasizes the importance of a well-rounded education system that fosters intellectual development and critical thinking, rather than solely focusing on immediate practical skills.
00:51:29 The Challenges of Technological Progress in the 21st Century
Education: Thiel believes that the purpose of education is to produce creative individuals who push the boundaries of knowledge. He criticizes the current state of education for emphasizing memorization and passive learning, which he sees as less important in a future where AI will handle many thinking tasks. Thiel suggests that the public school system may be intentionally preparing students to be passive cogs in a large machine, aligning with a dystopian AI narrative.
Technological Progress: Thiel acknowledges progress in certain fields, such as semiconductors, but expresses disappointment with the slow pace of advancement in many other areas. He recalls the 1980s and 1990s as a time of significant progress, particularly in computer science, while other fields like mechanical, chemical, and nuclear engineering lagged behind. Thiel emphasizes the increasing scale and complexity of technological progress, requiring enormous resources and making it difficult for individuals or small companies to make significant contributions.
China’s Role: Thiel warns that China’s rapid progress in technology poses a challenge to the West. While China lacks access to advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment like ASML machines, Thiel believes that their ability to copy and converge with Western technologies is a significant concern. Thiel suggests that the West’s slow pace of progress may allow China to catch up and potentially surpass Western technological dominance.
Abstract
Unpacking the Complexities of AI and Technology at the COSM Technology Summit
The COSM Technology Summit, a platform for discussing groundbreaking technological advancements and their societal implications, recently unfolded with a focus on the convergence of AI, 5G, cloud computing, and blockchain. The conference includes various discussions and deliberations on the convergence of emerging technologies such as AI, 5G, cloud computing, blockchain, and crypto. Gratitude is expressed to Peter Thiel for consistently supporting and participating in the COSM Technology Summit for the past three years. The importance of the staff’s contribution in organizing the conference is recognized, and the Discovery Institute staff is acknowledged. Recognition and appreciation are given to the sponsors who made the conference possible, including Microsoft, Amazon, Bloxcelerate, Smead Capital Management, M.J. Murdoch Charitable Trust, and several other organizations and individuals.
Keynote speaker Peter Thiel, a prominent entrepreneur, shared his nuanced perspectives on AI’s intelligence, consciousness, and the ethical dilemmas it presents. The summit also recognized the vital role of diverse viewpoints and the importance of well-rounded education in shaping our technological future. Notably, Matt McElwain’s introduction set the stage for a conference deeply invested in the future of AI and its global impact.
COSM Technology Summit: A Convergence of Future Technologies
The COSM Technology Summit highlighted the economic, geopolitical, and labor-related impacts of emerging technologies, with a significant emphasis on the role of AI. The convergence of AI with technologies like 5G, cloud computing, and blockchain points to a transformative future, reshaping the way we understand and interact with technology.
Matt McElwain, the managing director of Madrona Venture Group and chair of this year’s COSM Technology Summit, is introduced. Appreciation is expressed for Matt’s role in succeeding Tom Alberg and his contribution to the conference. Tom Alberg is remembered as a humble and innovative thinker, who played a significant role in building successful companies like Perkins Coie Law Firm, AT&T Wireless, and Amazon. He was passionate about idea generation and bringing people together for constructive conversations.
Peter Thiel’s Insights: AI’s Landscape and Ethical Implications
Peter Thiel’s participation, notably through a virtual discussion with George Gilder, brought an insightful perspective to the summit. Thiel explored the current state of AI, contrasting its optimistic beginnings with the present challenges, including the polarizing effects of algorithms and the U.S.-China rivalry in AI development. His discussion extended to the philosophical and ethical considerations of AI’s intelligence and consciousness.
While many have debated whether AI is intelligent or conscious, Thiel argues that these questions may not be the right ones to ask. He suggests that consciousness may be an attention redirection mechanism rather than an essential component of intelligence.
McElwain emphasizes the importance of curiosity and exploring diverse perspectives to gain a better understanding of truth. He encourages attendees to be open to different ideas and engage in respectful discussions. McElwain acknowledges the difficulty in distinguishing between misinformation and truth in the current era, where real and virtual worlds coexist.
Gratitude and Diversity: Foundations of the Summit
The summit’s acknowledgment of its staff, sponsors like Microsoft and Amazon, and the appreciation of diverse perspectives underscored the importance of collective effort and intellectual exchange in technological discourse. The recognition of Matt McElwain’s role and his emphasis on diversity of thought reinforced this ethos.
McElwain introduces Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal and Palantir, as a prominent investor and entrepreneur. He mentions Thiel’s involvement with companies like Airbnb and LinkedIn, as well as his role as a founder of Founders Fund. McElwain highlights Thiel’s support for young entrepreneurs through the Thiel Fellows Program, which has helped individuals like Dylan Field (Figma founder) pursue their dreams. He also mentions Thiel’s influential book, “Zero to One,” which emphasizes the difficulty of creating something new rather than replicating existing ideas.
Matt McElwain’s Vision: AI and Its Broad Implications
McElwain’s enthusiasm for AI’s future, particularly in generative applications and the debate over artificial general intelligence (AGI), set a tone of anticipation and curiosity. His focus on AI’s integration into daily life and its potential for sentient capabilities encouraged a deeper exploration of the topic among attendees.
McElwain expresses anticipation for Thiel’s talk, which will likely delve into AI and anti-AI perspectives.
AI and Consciousness: A Philosophical Debate
Thiel’s views challenged traditional perceptions, suggesting a focus on AI’s capabilities and impacts rather than its consciousness.
The discussion on AI’s capabilities veered into philosophical territory, questioning the relevance of consciousness in understanding AI. Thiel’s views challenged traditional perceptions, suggesting a focus on AI’s capabilities and impacts rather than its consciousness. Thiel argues that the question of consciousness in AI may not be as significant as its tangible effects on society.
Peter Thiel asks why many in Silicon Valley believe in the simulation hypothesis and explores connections between this belief and questions about AI. The simulation hypothesis gained traction due to the rise of computer science, the multiverse theory, and the search for answers to complex cosmological questions.
The Simulation Hypothesis and AI’s Darker Aspects
The summit delved into the simulation hypothesis, linking it to the growing complexities in computer science and physics. Thiel’s commentary on AI’s darker aspects, such as its potential for societal harm and the portrayal of AI as a new form of deity, added a critical dimension to the conversation.
The past 20 years have seen optimistic predictions about AI’s potential for growth and prosperity. However, current examples of AI, such as TikTok, demonstrate a tendency to polarize and derange society rather than achieve utopian visions. Thiel presents the idea that TikTok is a weapon employed by the Chinese communist government to disrupt and destabilize American society. He contrasts this with China’s centralized AI, which imposes strict surveillance and control within the country. Thiel frames the rivalry between the U.S. and China as a contest to see which society will be destroyed faster by dystopian AI.
Peter Thiel’s Cautionary Perspective on AI Dominance
Thiel’s warning against AI’s potential for decentralized violence or centralized totalitarianism highlighted the need for a balanced approach to AI development. His suggestion of a “third path” indicated a pursuit of progress that maintains human control over technological advancements.
Thiel considers the question of whether AI is intelligent and conscious but admits that these questions are beyond his expertise. He notes that the term “intelligent” is often used as a filler word and that the Obama administration’s 2016 study on AI focused on its transformative potential rather than its intelligence.
Reconciling Superabundance with Technological Stagnation
The theme of superabundance at the summit contrasted sharply with Thiel’s views on the stagnation in technological progress, particularly in sectors like energy and medicine. His skepticism towards AI’s productivity gains and concerns about technologies like TikTok raised questions about the ethical implications of rapid technological development.
TikTok: A Case Study in Technology’s Societal Impact
Thiel’s critical assessment of TikTok as a tool for disseminating potentially harmful content highlighted the broader implications of AI in media and society. This perspective underscored the need for a more ethical and responsible approach to technology development and deployment.
Thiel argues that if commodity prices rise significantly above current levels, it could signal a break in this trend and lead to concerns about inflation. He also suggests examining real inflation and comparing it to real wages to assess the true impact on people’s purchasing power.
Addressing Educational Concerns in the Age of AI
The summit touched upon the state of education, emphasizing the importance of fostering well-rounded individuals in a world increasingly influenced by AI. Thiel’s critique of the current education system and the need for progress in various scientific fields, including atom-level manipulation, reflected a broader concern about preparing future generations for a technologically advanced society.
Thiel expresses concern about the decline in the quality of US education and the trend of his colleagues sending their children to private schools. He emphasizes the importance of a well-rounded education system that fosters intellectual development and critical thinking, rather than solely focusing on immediate practical skills.
Navigating the Future of AI and Technology
The COSM Technology Summit presented a nuanced view of the future of AI and technology, balancing optimism with critical evaluation. Peter Thiel’s insights, along with contributions from other speakers, underscored the need for thoughtful consideration of AI’s impact on society, the importance of diverse perspectives, and the role of education in shaping a future where technology serves humanity’s best interests. As we move forward, the summit’s discussions serve as a beacon for navigating the complexities of AI and its pervasive influence in our lives.
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