Strategic Framework and Global Cooperation:
The war in Ukraine has damaged the international framework for law, order, and peace, endangering the independence and sovereignty of all nations. The global system of multilateral cooperation has become strained due to disrupted relations between developed countries and Russia, affecting areas like trade, climate change, pandemic preparedness, and nuclear non-proliferation.

Implications for US-China Relations:
The war has strained US-China relations and could lead to a worsening of ties, with potential global repercussions. The Prime Minister expressed hope for rational calculations and maintenance of relations between the two superpowers to avoid further deterioration.

Country-Specific Responses and Regional Security:
Countries are assessing their defense capabilities and alliances in light of the Ukraine crisis, leading to strategic recalibrations. Japan and South Korea are considering hosting or developing nuclear capabilities, potentially destabilizing the region. Taiwan’s defense posture is being strengthened, with increased public support for self-reliance and questioning of US commitment.

Avoiding Conflict and Building Structures:
The Prime Minister emphasized the need to avoid a path into conflict and consider how to avert a failure of deterrence in the Asia-Pacific region. He called for the establishment of structures, processes, and strategic accommodations to head off conflicts and engage countries on both sides.

Regional Institutions and US Engagement:
The Prime Minister highlighted the importance of regional institutions like APEC and the East Asia Summit, but acknowledged their limitations in substantive implementation. The US Indo-Pacific Economic Framework was mentioned as a potential avenue for engaging the region on a win-win basis.

US Regional Views and Confidence:
The Prime Minister discussed the differing regional perceptions of US commitment and support, given the indirect nature of US involvement in the Ukraine crisis. He compared the situation in Europe, where NATO provides clear lines of defense, to the ambiguity surrounding US policy in Asia, particularly regarding Taiwan.

Taiwan: Status Quo and Peaceful Change:
Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong emphasized the importance of maintaining the status quo in Taiwan and avoiding any forced or non-peaceful changes. He acknowledged the complexities of managing the situation, considering economic, strategic, political, and sentimental factors.

US Pivot to Asia and Its Global Interests:
Lee expressed understanding that the United States has worldwide preoccupations and interests. While the pivot to Asia remains a priority, he acknowledged that events like the Ukraine crisis may require US attention elsewhere. However, he stressed that the Asia-Pacific region, including China and other US partners, cannot be neglected.

China’s Sobering Experience from Ukraine:
Lee suggested that China may have been sobered by the wide-ranging sanctions imposed on Russia and the potential consequences of closely associating with a war that violates principles like territorial integrity and non-interference. He highlighted the awkward questions it raises for China regarding Taiwan and other non-Han Chinese regions.

Economic Interdependence and the High Cost of Isolation:
Lee emphasized the interconnectedness of the global economy and the consequences of cutting off economic ties with China. He pointed out that both sides would experience negative economic impacts, highlighting the need for cooperation and recognizing the high price of isolation.

China’s Non-Alignment with Russia in the Region:
Lee noted that in the Asia-Pacific region, China’s refusal to distance itself from Russia did not significantly affect its standing. Many countries in the region prioritize sovereignty and UN principles while maintaining ties with both China and Russia.

Indo-Pacific Economic Framework:
Lee discussed the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) as a potential positive agenda for US economic cooperation in the region. He emphasized the need for inclusivity, forward-looking policies, and tangible benefits for both parties. He suggested exploring areas like digital economy and green economy cooperation as steps towards market access and trade liberalization.

Balancing Globalization and De-Globalization:
Lee acknowledged the growing concerns about de-globalization due to sanctions, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions. He emphasized the importance of international trade and economic cooperation, emphasizing the need for trust, redundancy, and reliable partnerships.

Maintaining Trusted Supply Chains:
Lee stressed the importance of maintaining trusted supply chains and working with partners to ensure continued cooperation. He highlighted the need for a large and inclusive network of countries to engage in economic cooperation, avoiding complete isolation of certain regions.

Realistic Goals for North Korea:
Achieving complete denuclearization and permanent peace on the Korean peninsula might be challenging. A more realistic near and medium-term goal is to establish a stable deterrence situation where the status quo exists, but countries do not officially recognize North Korea’s nuclear weapons.

Deterrence and Proliferation:
North Korea’s nuclear weapons provide significant deterrence capabilities, and they are unlikely to give them up. The Budapest Agreement and the assurances given to Ukraine, along with the fates of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, raise concerns about the unintended consequences of non-proliferation policies. The reality is that some countries may pursue nuclear weapons for deterrence purposes.

South China Sea:
The South China Sea involves multiple claimants, including China and four ASEAN countries, with overlapping claims. Singapore is not a claimant in the South China Sea. ASEAN and China have an ongoing dialogue and are negotiating a Code of Conduct to manage the situation, but progress has been slow.

South China Sea Dispute:
Singapore emphasizes freedom of navigation, international law, peaceful resolution of disputes, and the importance of the South China Sea for global trade and energy. Accommodation can be found, but it remains a complex issue due to the broad accounts and interests of ASEAN countries with China.

Ukraine Conflict:
Singapore does not see a close link between the Ukraine conflict and the South China Sea dispute. The lack of a mediator is not the main issue in Ukraine.

New Institutions in the Indo-Pacific:
Singapore welcomes new institutions like AUKUS, the Quad, and Five Eyes, recognizing their role in advancing strategic interests. ASEAN remains central in hosting discussions and bringing parties together, but achieving consensus can be challenging. Inclusive structures like APEC, the East Asia Summit, and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework are important for regional stability.

Singapore’s Economic Ties with China:
Singapore and China maintain strong economic ties, with China being its largest trading partner. Singapore benefits from these ties and wishes China well. The recent decline in the Chinese stock market is attributed to policy decisions and not a separation from China’s economy. Singapore’s long-term view is that China has the potential to continue as a growing, developing economy.

Hong Kong’s Transition and Economic Impact:
Singapore views Hong Kong’s transition as a specific problem influenced by the broader China context and specific conditions in Hong Kong. Companies and individuals from Hong Kong may consider moving to Singapore, which is welcomed but not the desired outcome. A robust and competitive Hong Kong is beneficial for both Singapore and the region as a whole.

Integrating China into Global Economic Institutions:
The widespread judgment in the US is that efforts to integrate China into global economic institutions have largely failed.

China’s Changing Role and Impact on the Global System:
China’s rapid growth and increasing influence have shifted the global balance of power. The US and its allies are reassessing their strategies to address China’s growing economic and geopolitical clout.

Integrating China into the Global System:
Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong emphasizes the importance of integrating China into the global system to avoid long-term conflict. He suggests a gradual approach, recognizing China’s economic development and giving it space to influence the global system.

Addressing the Power Imbalance:
The challenge lies in finding a balance where both large and small countries can cooperate and benefit mutually. Big countries must be mindful of their impact on smaller partners and avoid dominating them.

Intellectual Property Theft and Cyber Security:
Concerns about intellectual property theft and cyber security remain significant hurdles in US-China relations. Lee Hsien Loong highlights the need for serious high-level discussions to address these issues and build trust between the two countries.

Climate Crisis and Energy Security:
The renewed focus on energy security due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict may divert attention and resources from addressing the climate crisis. Lee Hsien Loong expresses concern that mitigation efforts are inadequate and that valuable time is being lost in tackling climate change.

Climate Change Impact on Singapore:
Lee Hsien Loong expresses concern about the rising sea levels due to climate change, emphasizing that Singapore’s low-lying geography makes it vulnerable to flooding. He compares the potential impact to that of Louisiana, where regular flooding occurs.

Mitigation Efforts by Singapore:
Singapore is taking steps to mitigate climate change through various measures but acknowledges that these efforts are limited due to the country’s small contribution to global emissions. The country aims to achieve net-zero emissions around the middle of the century, but the exact timeline depends on technological advancements and carbon markets.

Challenges in Achieving Climate Goals:
International cooperation is crucial for effective climate action. However, geopolitical tensions, such as the war in Ukraine and strained relations with China, hinder progress in reaching climate agreements. Even ongoing dialogues with China face difficulties due to the fraught relationship and the unwillingness to trade off climate issues against other concerns.

Reducing Dependence on Russia:
Lee Hsien Loong highlights the impact of reducing dependence on Russian oil on Europe. However, he emphasizes that unless Russian oil is eliminated from global consumption, it will likely be redirected to other regions. From a climate perspective, this does not solve the problem of carbon emissions.

Singapore’s Approach to Climate Change:
Lee Hsien Loong acknowledges the unlikelihood of successful global mitigation efforts and emphasizes the importance of adaptation for Singapore. He believes Singapore has the resources to adapt to a sea-level rise of up to 36 inches over the next 100 years. Adaptation efforts will include building boulders, dikes, reclaiming land, and raising infrastructure levels. Lee recognizes the need for long-term solutions beyond the next 100 years.

Singapore’s Stance on Geoengineering:
Lee is open to supporting research and experimentation on geoengineering technologies that aim to cool the planet. He acknowledges the need to carefully consider the risks and benefits of such technologies. Lee believes it is important to explore new solutions to address the challenges of climate change.

Digital Cooperation in Southeast Asia:
Lee promotes the idea of a Digital Economic Partnership Agreement (DEPA) to establish a framework for digital cooperation between countries. He emphasizes the need for rules, mutual understanding, and information-sharing protocols. Lee encourages the United States to consider a DEPA-like agreement with Southeast Asian countries.

Singapore’s Involvement in Myanmar:
Lee acknowledges Singapore’s investments in Myanmar but emphasizes that many of these investments are currently stalled. He notes that Singaporean banks handle Myanmar accounts and monitor them closely for suspicious transactions. Lee recognizes the difficulties in using financial sanctions to influence policy changes in Myanmar. He emphasizes the need for patience and continued engagement to encourage progress in Myanmar.