Graham Allison (Harvard University Professor) – War in Ukraine, Putin, China-U.S. Rivalry, and Canada’s Global Role (Sep 2022)

Chapters

Abstract

Navigating Great Power Competition: Canada’s Role and the Thucydides Trap

In a world increasingly defined by the rivalry between the United States and China, Canada finds itself in a unique and pivotal position. This article, drawing on various perspectives, explores the complexities of the US-China rivalry through the lens of the Thucydides Trap, China’s aspirations, and the emerging global dynamics involving Russia. It underscores Canada’s potential role in navigating these tensions, emphasizing the importance of a strategic and balanced approach.

Canada’s Strategic Position in US-China Rivalry

Canada, with its close ties to both the US and China, is well-placed to play a constructive role in the ongoing rivalry. Recognizing its unique position, Canada should leverage its intellectual and creative capabilities and active role in international organizations to contribute meaningfully to global stability. However, it faces the challenge of balancing its relations without being stretched too thin. As a middle power, Canada’s role is distinct due to its diverse relations with the US, China, Europe, and others. Canada has the potential to mediate US-China relations by utilizing its diplomatic connections and strategic insights.

Understanding the Thucydides Trap and Its Relevance

The concept of the Thucydides Trap, which suggests that a rising power’s threat to a ruling one often leads to conflict, is highly pertinent in understanding the US-China dynamics. China’s meteoric rise in economic, military, and technological fields positions it as a formidable challenger to the US. This rivalry, the most significant geopolitical development of the 21st century, requires careful navigation to avoid conflict, recognizing the interdependence and shared responsibilities of both nations. The Thucydides Trap is applicable to the modern era because it highlights the inherent tensions between rising and ruling powers, which can lead to conflict. Research reports provide detailed analysis of the military, economic, technological, and diplomatic aspects of the US-China rivalry, documenting China’s meteoric rise and challenging the notion that its ambitions are solely regional.

Criticisms and Responses to the Thucydides Trap Concept

Critics argue that China’s ambitions are limited to internal and regional issues, and it is not yet ready to challenge the US globally. However, empirical evidence of China’s rise and its efforts to reshape international institutions indicate broader ambitions. China’s developmental trajectory suggests it is on a path to becoming a global power, thus lending credence to the Thucydides Trap analogy. Critics who argue that China’s ambitions are limited or that it is too weak to pose a threat to the US ignore the overwhelming evidence of China’s rise.

China’s Aspirations and Regional Dominance

China’s long-term goal is to become the predominant power in Asia and eventually surpass the United States, as articulated by Lee Kuan Yew. Its focus on regional dominance and aspirations for global superpower status underscore the complexity of its ambitions. China’s desire for economic prosperity and international influence drives its global ambitions, yet it does not seek to conquer other nations. China’s primary focus is on restoring its greatness and achieving internal stability, creating a permissive environment for domestic growth and development. Their interest in regional influence extends beyond their borders, with a focus on dominance in Asia, acknowledged by neighboring countries in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia. In terms of economic ambition, China aims to become as wealthy as advanced countries by 2049, potentially surpassing the United States’ GDP. Their long-term goal is to assume a central role in international relations, seeking a permissive environment that allows them to achieve domestic and regional goals. Unlike the Soviet Union, China has no ambition to conquer and rule other countries.

The Superiority Complexes of China and the US

Both China and the US possess a sense of superiority, believing in their unmatched greatness. This mindset plays a crucial role in shaping their foreign policies and perceptions of each other, further complicating the rivalry. China and the United States both have a sense of cultural superiority. China believes they are the best, with limited expectations for other countries to emulate them. Friedman argues that China is too weak to be a serious rival to the United States. However, China’s growing strength suggests that this rivalry may intensify in the future.

Military Dynamics and the Thucydides Trap

China’s growing military capabilities, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, challenge the existing military balance. This shift makes a Thucydides Trap scenario more likely, as the US finds it increasingly difficult to intervene in regional conflicts. Over the last two decades, China’s military capabilities have seen significant growth, particularly in its immediate vicinity and neighboring seas. While the US remains the dominant military power globally, China’s advancements have shifted the local military balance. The US and China are engaged in a Thucydides Trap scenario, where a rising power (China) seeks to challenge the dominant power (US) in its region. China aims to be the predominant power in Asia, while the US views itself as a major Asian power with allies in the region.

The China-Russia Alliance and Global Implications

The emerging alliance between China and Russia, especially highlighted by the war in Ukraine, has significant implications for the US-China rivalry and the global balance of power. China’s scrutiny of Russia’s military performance in Ukraine provides insights into its own military strategies and potential reassessments. The war in Ukraine has highlighted the growing alliance between Russia and China, actively fostered by Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. This alliance encompasses various dimensions, including economic cooperation, political coordination, and military collaboration. China has openly supported Russia throughout the Ukraine war, providing diplomatic and economic backing, reflecting its interest in aligning with Russia against the West. China is likely taking note of Russia’s poor performance in the Ukraine war, which could raise concerns about the reliability of Russian military equipment and the effectiveness of integrated military operations.

The Prospect of Negotiations and Nuclear Deterrence

Negotiations with leaders like Putin are seen as inevitable, reminiscent of dialogues with historical figures like Stalin and Mao. The specter of mutual assured destruction, a legacy of the Cold War, continues to prevent direct military confrontation, emphasizing the need for constraints and diplomacy. The expert believes it’s necessary to negotiate with Putin, despite his actions, to prevent escalation and minimize further atrocities. Putin’s nuclear capabilities pose a significant threat, and a humiliating defeat in Ukraine could lead him to use tactical nuclear weapons. The Cold War-era concept of mutual assured destruction still exists today, where nuclear powers like the US and Russia possess arsenals capable of destroying each other. Avoiding a war with Russia is crucial to prevent widespread destruction and the loss of lives.

Canada’s Role and the Global Landscape

The US-China rivalry, coupled with the complexities involving Russia, creates a dynamic geopolitical landscape. Canada, with its diplomatic finesse and strategic positioning, can significantly contribute to finding peaceful solutions. By understanding the nuances of these great power dynamics and leveraging its strengths, Canada can help navigate these turbulent waters, fostering a world where competition does not escalate into conflict. As a middle power, Canada has the potential to play a constructive role in mediating US-China relations and contribute to global stability.

Notes by: Alkaid