Welcome:
The US-China Relations Panel was the opening session of the China Conference at Harvard Kennedy School. The panel was graced by the presence of Professor Graham Allison and Dr. Wang Huiyao.

Professor Graham Allison:
He is the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University. He was the founding dean of Harvard Kennedy School and the director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. He served in key positions in the US government, including Assistant Secretary of Defense and Special Advisor to Secretary of Defense. He has written many bestselling books on international relations.

Dr. Wang Huiyao:
He is the founder and president of the Center for China and Globalization. He is an advisor to the Chinese government and was appointed counselor for China State Council by the Chinese premier in 2015. He is a thought leader on China and globalization, global governance, trade, investment, migration, and China-US trade relations.

Key Points:

The Significance of Nixon’s Visit to China:
Nixon’s visit to China in 1972 marked a turning point in US-China relations, ending over 20 years of mutual hostility and initiating normalization. The visit had profound global impacts, including the end of the Cold War, significant economic growth, and improved bilateral ties. The normalization of relations between the US and China led to the establishment of core principles for engagement, as outlined in the Shanghai Communique.

Reflecting on 50 Years of US-China Relations:
The speakers emphasize the remarkable progress made in the past 50 years, highlighting benefits to the world, China, and the United States. However, they acknowledge that the circumstances have changed significantly since then, warranting a reevaluation of the current state of relations.

The Relevance of the Shanghai Communique Today:
The Shanghai Communique laid out fundamental principles for US-China engagement, including sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity, and non-interference. These principles are still highly relevant today, serving as a foundation for peace and security in the region for the past half-century. While the principles remain valid, there is a need to upgrade and revise the communique to reflect the new realities in China, Taiwan, the US, and the world.

The Characterization of the Current State of US-China Relations:
Some Western pundits and academics have described the current state of US-China relations as a new Cold War. The Chinese media and government have generally rejected this narrative, emphasizing the need to avoid a Cold War mentality. Professor Allison acknowledges the rivalry between the US and China but argues that it is not a new Cold War. He emphasizes that the current situation is more complex and requires a nuanced understanding, rather than a simplistic Cold War analogy.

US-China Rivalry and the Cold War:
The US-China rivalry is distinct from the Cold War due to China’s economic importance and the intertwined nature of the global economy. China is the major trading partner of many countries and a backbone of the global economy, making an economic Iron Curtain unfeasible.

US-China as Inseparable Conjoined Twins:
The US and China are inseparable conjoined twins, both possessing superpower nuclear arsenals and emitting greenhouse gases into the same biosphere. The survival of one depends on the survival of the other, emphasizing the need for coexistence despite fierce rivalry.

Decoupling and the Limits of Separability:
Decoupling efforts, such as American companies pulling out of China, have begun to occur. The extent to which the US and China can separate remains uncertain, as decoupling harms consumers, businesses, and both countries. Strengthening global governance and cooperation among the US, China, and the EU is crucial to address common challenges and make the world a better place.

Economic Ties Amidst Decoupling Efforts:
Despite the trade war, US-China trade has returned to pre-war levels, driven by American consumer demand for Chinese-made goods. The economic relationship between the two countries continues to deepen, although there are efforts to decouple certain areas. The US and China have comparative advantages in different industries, with China dominating manufacturing and the US excelling in goods and services.

Protectionism and Comparative Advantages:
The Biden administration’s Build Back Better program includes protectionist measures that may lead to higher prices for consumers. Finding a way to complement comparative advantages and address the trade deficit is a complex challenge, especially considering the political dynamics in both countries.

Conjoined Siamese Twins:
In the security and climate arenas, the US and China are deeply interconnected and face shared challenges, such as nuclear war and greenhouse gas emissions. Cooperation is essential to address these global issues and avoid mutual destruction.

Geopolitical Concerns and Decoupling:
Decoupling efforts are driven by geopolitical concerns from both sides. Collaboration between the two countries has led to success stories, such as Apple and Tesla, which have benefited both economies. However, the US administration’s restrictions on Chinese companies have negatively impacted business relations.

Consumer Costs of Protectionism:
Protectionist policies by governments ultimately lead to higher costs for consumers in both countries. Finding a balance between competition and cooperation, especially in technological areas, is crucial to avoid harming consumers.

The China-US Technology Rivalry:
The US and China have been engaged in a fierce technology rivalry for the past 21 years. China has made significant progress in becoming a serious rival to the US in almost every technological arena. China’s advancements in 5G, AI, quantum computing, synthetic biology, and other frontier technologies are particularly noteworthy.

5G Technology:
The US used to dominate 3G technology, while Europe dominated 4G. 5G technology has the potential to revolutionize various industries, including mobile communication, social media, and transportation. However, the US’s 5G rollout has been slow and lacks the same speed and reliability as China’s 5G network.

The Importance of Competition:
Competition in economics, sports, and other areas can be beneficial. Competition can drive innovation and push individuals and nations to achieve greater heights. However, competition can also lead to geopolitical rivalries and conflicts.

Navigating the Contradictions of Competition:
The US and China need to find a way to balance the positive and negative aspects of competition. They need to recognize the benefits of constructive competition while also addressing the risks of geopolitical rivalry. This will require careful diplomacy and a willingness to compromise on both sides.

China’s Infrastructure Development:
China has made significant investments in infrastructure, including high-speed rail networks and 5G stations. This has improved efficiency, productivity, and connectivity in China. The US lags behind China in terms of infrastructure development.

Common Prosperity through Infrastructure:
President Biden proposed a 1.2 trillion infrastructure package, the EU has proposed 300 billion euros, and China has invested in infrastructure through the Belt and Road Initiative. Collaborating on infrastructure projects could intertwine the US, China, and EU economies and avoid future conflicts. Reinforcing international development banks like the World Bank, ADB, and AIB could facilitate global infrastructure transformation.

America’s Infrastructure Deficiencies:
Graham Allison highlighted the prowess of China’s infrastructure construction compared to the US’s. Allison presented a vivid example of the vast difference in construction efficiency between the US and China by comparing the renovation of Harvard Bridge and the Sanyan Bridge in Beijing.

China’s Great Wall Proposal to Trump:
Allison suggested that China could build a wall along the US-Mexico border as a gesture of appreciation during Xi Jinping’s first visit to Donald Trump. The proposal was not well-received by both the Chinese and Trump’s administration.

Collaboration Opportunities for US and China:
Wang Huiyao emphasized the complementary roles that the US and China can play in infrastructure development. The lack of infrastructure in the US, especially inland, hinders the export of energy resources, resulting in higher costs. China’s experience in large-scale infrastructure projects could be beneficial in developing high-speed rail networks and improving airports in the US. Working together on infrastructure projects in third countries could leverage the US’s familiarity with local conditions and China’s construction capabilities. International development banks like the World Bank, ADB, and AIB could provide a platform for collaboration, given their involvement in various countries.

Challenges in US Infrastructure Projects:
Graham Allison acknowledged the reasons behind the slow pace and lack of success in American infrastructure projects. Allison pointed to the example of the high-speed rail project between LA and Sacramento, which has been delayed and over budget for over a decade. A comprehensive analysis is needed to identify the root causes of these challenges.

Potential Solution: Elon Musk’s Involvement:
Allison suggested that Elon Musk’s innovative approach and proven success in various industries could be a potential solution to addressing the challenges in US infrastructure projects.

China’s Close Relationship with Russia:
Xi Jinping has cultivated a strong relationship with Vladimir Putin, visiting him frequently and making Putin feel comfortable as a junior partner. China and Russia have a thick and operational relationship, despite their potential for adversarial relations due to territorial disputes and resource imbalances.

The US’s Role in Unifying China and Russia:
The US’s targeting of both China and Russia as adversaries has inadvertently pushed the two countries closer together. The US has missed the geopolitical principle that “the enemy of my enemy is a friend.” This is the opposite of the trilateral diplomacy that the US, China, and Russia engaged in 50 years ago.

China’s Stress over Russia’s Actions:
China is stressed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine because it contradicts China’s fundamental principles for international relations. China believes in the foundations of the UN Charter, including sovereignty and territorial integrity. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, following its seizure of Crimea, violates the principle of territorial integrity.

China’s Support for Russia:
Graham Allison asserts that China will continue to support Putin, despite their historical differences, due to shared interests and strategic alignment. The recent abstention from criticizing Russia in the UN vote exemplifies China’s backing of Putin. China aims to play a peacemaking role to mitigate the perception of supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

China’s Complex Relationship with Russia:
Wang Huiyao highlights China’s historical territorial disputes and conflicts with Russia. The recent improvement in relations is attributed to shared empathy due to Western sanctions and perceived containment.

Misinterpretation of the China-Russia Statement:
Wang clarifies that the joint statement issued during Biden’s visit to Beijing should not be viewed as a military alliance. China maintains a non-alliance policy and the statement represents a broad alignment of views on global governance and cooperation.

China’s Potential Role in Conflict Resolution:
Wang emphasizes China’s unique position as a country with good relations with both Ukraine and Russia. China’s economic ties with Europe, including Ukraine, underscore its interest in stability and prosperity in the region. Wang suggests that China’s involvement as a peacemaker could prevent escalation and help deescalate the conflict.

Major Global Issues Requiring Collaboration:
Climate change, pandemics, and nuclear nonproliferation are global issues that necessitate cooperation between the US and China.

Survival as a Powerful Imperative:
Rational leaders of nations rarely commit suicide for their country, making survival a strong imperative. Both Biden and Xi are considered sane leaders who can recognize the disastrous consequences of nuclear war and climate change.

Shared Interest in Preventing Pandemics:
Impermeable walls to prevent virus penetration are a losing battle. China’s strategy of finding and limiting the spread of cases has been more successful than the American strategy. Preventing pandemics or finding ways to deal with them is a shared interest.

Nuclear Proliferation Concerns:
Both the US and China have an interest in preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear weapon state.

Global Leadership and Multilateralism:
As the largest and second-largest economies, the US and China have a moral responsibility to work on global challenges. They can collaborate on climate change, cybersecurity, infrastructure needs, poverty alleviation, and the SDG 2030 agenda.

Hope for the Next 50 Years of US and China Relations:
The progress made in the past 50 years is remarkable, and there is hope for continued collaboration in the future.

China’s Rapid Rise and its Implications:
China’s rapid rise as a peer competitor to the US is an extraordinary achievement within two generations. The coming decades will be pivotal for China, the US, and the world.

The Thucydides Trap:
The Thucydides Trap refers to the historical pattern of conflict when a rising power threatens a ruling power. Examples include Athens vs. Sparta and Germany vs. Great Britain. The US and China are currently in a similar situation, with potential catastrophic outcomes.

Avoiding Catastrophe:
To escape the Thucydides Trap, the US and China need to reach beyond conventional wisdom and find innovative solutions. Conferences like this one provide opportunities for younger generations to contribute fresh ideas and perspectives.

The Wisdom of Humankind:
The current global village scenario requires the wisdom of humankind to navigate challenges and avoid conflict. Modern technology and integration have created a shared destiny for all nations.

Accepting Differences and Seeking Common Ground:
Accepting differences in values and governance systems is crucial to peaceful coexistence. Exploring common ground and promoting understanding through dialogue can lead to new equilibria and common understandings.

A Global Culture for Harmony:
A global culture that recognizes the diversity of nations and promotes peaceful coexistence is necessary to prevent conflict. Modernization and technological advancements can foster positive changes in human nature, enabling harmonious living.

Conclusion:
The conference emphasizes the urgency for statesmen to transcend traditional approaches and explore new ideas to avoid the Thucydides Trap. By embracing the wisdom of humankind, accepting differences, and seeking common ground, a global culture of harmony can be achieved, allowing nations to coexist peacefully for the next half-century.